Sandra Pellegrini, Senior Latin America Analyst at conflict data mapping organization ACLED said:
“Labelling cartels as terrorist organizations opens the door for legal and political justification for US actions beyond its borders, including military operations targeting cartels, their leaders, and infrastructures. But history shows us that strategies aimed at dismantling cartel leadership are likely to prompt further violence, especially if carried out unilaterally and without cooperation with Mexican authorities. For instance, during former Mexican President Felipe Calderón’s War on Drugs, the dismantling of major cartels through the targeting of their leaders led to their fragmentation and a surge in violence. Similarly, the recent US arrest of Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, a leader of the Sinaloa Cartel, in July this year has led to intensified disputes between rival factions since September. ACLED data found that this infighting caused a 2.5-fold increase in violence in Sinaloa in 2024 compared to the previous year due to heightened violence between rival criminal groups and clashes with security forces, as well as a disproportionate rise in civilian targeting (see graph below).
By announcing a national emergency at the border, President Trump aims to direct more resources toward limiting migration, notably through physical barriers. While such measures might reduce migration flows in the short term, they fail to address the underlying push factors driving migration. At the same time, organized crime groups will continue to profit from human trafficking and smuggling. A perverse consequence of stricter border security measures could be that organized crime groups profit even more as traffickers by charging higher fees to navigate trickier routes, further exposing civilians to violence and exploitation.
These declarations also indicate a shift toward a more confrontational stance against Mexico. The plan to invoke the Alien and Sedition Act, traditionally reserved for wartime or foreign invasions, appears to frame the alleged organized crime groups’ penetration of the US border through drug trafficking or migrants as a foreign invasion, with potential allusions to collusion with the Mexican government — which will likely put a strain on US-Mexico relations.”
