Tiziano Breda, Senior Analyst for Latin America & the Caribbean at conflict data mapping organization ACLED, said:
“The offensive launched by the National Liberation Army (ELN) against the General Central Staff (EMC) — dissidents of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia — in Catatumbo has drastically altered violence trends in Norte de Santander. The region, pivotal for coca production and cocaine trafficking through Venezuela, has historically been a battleground for territorial control between armed groups. However, the ELN decided to break a non-aggression pact with the EMC that had contributed to reducing armed group violence in the department by 40% between 2022 and 2024.”
“In Catatumbo alone, local sources report around 100 people were killed in the January 2025 offensive. In another worrying trend, UN figures show over 48,000 people were displaced during the violence — more than a quarter of the country’s total displacements in the first 11 months of 2024. This escalation underscores the volatile relationships between armed groups vying for the control of territory and illicit economies, and risks reigniting conflicts in other regions. The ELN has already clashed with the Gulf Clan in Bolívar, where an alliance with the EMC may be fraying, while EMC factions have turned against each other in Guaviare and may face off in other neighboring departments. These dynamics have contributed to ACLED data recording January 2025 as Colombia’s deadliest month since President Gustavo Petro assumed office in August 2022, posing significant challenges to his peace negotiation strategy with armed groups.”
