1160 political violence events
5% increase compared to last week
64 incidents of violence targeted at civilians
31% increase compared to last week
At least 18 fatalities from civilian targeting
38% decrease compared to last week
Key trends
- In the Donetsk region, Russian forces occupied three settlements south of Pokrovsk, another three in the direction of Kurakhove, and two near Velyka Novosilka. Russian forces also took over the village of Terny northeast of Lyman.
- ACLED records 32 Russian long-range missile and drone strikes, including in the city of Kyiv and the western regions of Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Khmelnytskyi, and Zhytomyr. Ukrainian forces intercepted strikes in at least 40 other instances, including over the western regions of Zhytomyr and Khmelnytskyi, and the region of Kyiv.
- Russian shelling, missiles, and drones killed at least 18 civilians in the Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Kherson, Kharkiv, Zaporizhia, and Donetsk regions and in the city of Kyiv. Ukrainian drone and missile strikes killed three civilians and injured eight others in occupied Horlivka.
Key events
- 15 Jan. | Lviv – Russian missiles strike energy infrastructure in Drohobych and Stryi districts
- 16 Jan. | Dnepropetrovsk – Russian drones and rockets kill one civilian and damage residential buildings and energy infrastructure in Nikopol
- 17 Jan. | Dnipropetrovsk – Russian missiles kill five civilians and damage an educational facility and residential buildings in Kryvyi Rih
Spotlight: Russian forces flanking Pokrovsk approach Dnipropetrovsk region
After establishing full control over the town of Kurakhove on 10 January, Russian armed forces continued their advance around the key fortress of Pokrovsk in the western Donetsk region.
While avoiding a full-frontal assault at Pokrovsk, Russia amassed contingents as close as three kilometers from the city’s urban core and neighboring Myrnohrad. Russian forces also started flanking Pokrovsk from the west and southeast, capturing over a dozen settlements. The presence of Russian troops and artillery has gradually led to the destruction of most public infrastructure and businesses in the area, hampered the evacuation of civilians, and resulted in the closure of a large coking coal mine outside the city.1Constant Méheut and Daria Mitiuk, ‘Inside Ukraine’s Last Stand at a Vital Coal Mine,’ The New York Times, 15 January 2025; Reuters, ‘Ukraine steelmaker Metinvest suspends coal operations at key Pokrovsk mine,’ 14 January 2025
While the closure of the coking coal mine poses a challenge to steel production for the railway and arms sectors in the country, the flanking of Pokrovsk and the rapid encirclement of Ukrainian troops in Velyka Novosilka is reflective of a wider strategic objective for Russia. The maneuver sees Russia push closer to reaching the administrative boundaries of the Donetsk region and threatening the less defense-ready Dnipropetrovsk region, while also severing a key logistics route to Pavlohrad2Isobel Koshiw and Anastasia Stognei, ‘Russian forces advance towards Ukraine’s Dnipro region,’ Financial Times, 12 January 2025; The New Voice of Ukraine, ‘Military expert warns of Russian offensive threat to Pavlograd in Pokrovsk direction,’ 26 December 2024; Kateryna Hodunova, ‘Outnumbered and outgunned, Ukraine struggles to halt Russian advance near Pokrovsk,’ Kyiv Independent, 14 December 2024 ahead of possible ceasefire negotiations.
Explore the ACLED Conflict Exposure tool to assess the numbers of people affected by armed violence, disaggregated by locations, time period, and actors involved.
Correction 29 January 2025: A previous version of this Ukraine War Situation Update published on 22 January 2025 included the incorrect subtitle of “Wave of arson attacks shocks Russia” under the Spotlight section.
