1148 political violence events
4% increase compared to last week
47 incidents of violence targeting civilians
27% decrease compared to last week
At least 25 fatalities from civilian targeting
39% increase compared to last week
Key trends
- In the Donetsk region, Russian forces occupied three settlements south of Pokrovsk, advancing to positions as close as 4 km from the administrative border with the Dnipropetrovsk region and within the city of Toretsk.
- Russian forces also advanced in the direction of Kupiansk, taking control of a settlement in the Kharkiv region and another in the Luhansk region.
- ACLED records 18 Russian long-range missile and drone strikes, including in the city of Kyiv and the western regions of Lviv and Khmelnytskyi. Ukrainian forces intercepted strikes in at least 40 other instances, including over the western regions of Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, and Khmelnytskyi, and the region of Kyiv.
- Russian shelling, missiles, and drones killed at least 24 civilians in the Donetsk, Kherson, Zaporizhia, and Kyiv regions, as well as in the city of Kyiv. Ukrainian shelling and drone strikes killed fourcivilians and injured 25 others in the Russian-held parts of the Donetsk region.
Key events
- 18 Jan. | Kyiv – A Russian ballistic missile kills four civilians and wounds three others in the Kyiv city
- 23 Jan. | Donetsk – Russian forces execute at least six Ukrainian prisoners of war in the Donetsk region
- 23 Jan. | Zaporizhia – Russian ballistic missiles kill one civilian and injure 54 others in Zaporizhia city
Spotlight: Ukrainian forces face Russian encirclement in Velyka Novosilka
As Russian forces continue advancing on the outskirts of Pokrovsk and within urban Toretsk and Chasiv Yar, Ukrainian forces are facing a key moment in their defense of the Donetsk region in the town of Velyka Novosilka. After Russian forces captured the fortress town of Vuhledar in September 2024, Velyka Novosilka and Pokrovsk are the main Ukrainian outposts for securing the administrative boundary between the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions. Recent Russian rapid advances in at least six settlements east and south of Velyka Novosilka since late November 2024 moved clashes into the city and placed Ukrainian troops within the immediate range of artillery and first-person view drones. Their situation was further complicated as the only remaining line of communication went through the Mokry Yaly river. The eventual Ukrainians’ withdrawal after 23 January to the northwest of the river allowed for a natural barrier to waves of Russian infantry attacks, even as reports of withdrawals suggest that the defensive move was a costly maneuver.1The Economist, ‘Amid talk of a ceasefire, Ukraine’s front line is crumbling,’ 27 January 2025
Considering the severe lack of personnel and fears of further deployments of Russian troops in the western Donetsk region, the battle of Velyka Novosilka will probably show Kyiv’s resolve and constraints in attempts to keep the frontline steady and away from the Dnipropetrovsk region.2Diana Bondarenko, ‘Next — Dnipropetrovsk region: how the situation will change at the front, if the enemy is pressed by Velyka Novosilka,’ Focus.ua, 27 January 2025; Oleh Chernysh, ‘The Armed Forces of Ukraine escaped the encirclement in Velyka Novosilka, Russia talks about the seizure. Why it is important,’ BBC, 26 January 2025; Nikita Shenderovski, ‘The limit of three regions: the expert assessed the threats after the loss of the Big Novosilka,’ Unian, 28 January 2025
Explore the ACLED Conflict Exposure tool to assess the numbers of people affected by armed violence, disaggregated by locations, time period, and actors involved.
