January was Ecuador’s deadliest month since police began officially tracking homicides in 2010. Criminal violence has surged in recent years, becoming a central issue in the presidential election campaign, whose first round took place on 9 February.
Tiziano Breda, Latin America Senior Analyst at ACLED said:
“Organized crime violence has not spared political figures. On 11 January, the mayor of Arenillas, Eber Ponce Rosero, was assassinated, while days later, a sitting member of parliament was kidnapped. The wave of attacks on politicians is a stark reminder of how organized crime is reshaping Ecuador’s political landscape. These incidents are part of a broader trend: since 2020, violence targeting politicians has intensified as criminal groups battle for control over drug trafficking routes and attempt to co-opt local officials.”
In 2024 alone, ACLED recorded 63 attacks on political figures—the highest since coverage of Ecuador began in 2018, surpassing 2023, when the latest elections were held, marked by the assassination of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio.
“Despite heightened security measures during the campaign, political figures remain at extreme risk, well beyond the electoral cycle. But this escalation is more than just a threat to individual political figures -it is also likely to shape the upcoming 13 April second round of the presidential elections. Incumbent President Daniel Noboa has centered his campaign on iron-fist strategies to combat crime, while challenger Luisa González has focused on institutional reform and modernizing security forces. The evolution of violence will likely play a decisive role in the race.”
For further information please see ACLED’s February 2025 Latin America and the Caribbean Regional Overview.
ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data) is an independent, impartial, international non-profit organization collecting data on violent conflict and protest in all countries and territories in the world.
