M23 advances nearer to South Kivu’s capital city despite a regroup of Congolese and allied forces.
After two weeks of fighting in South Kivu province and calls for a ceasefire from regional heads of state,1East African Community and Southern African Development Community, ‘Communique of the Joint EAC-SADC Summit of Heads of State and Government,’ 8 February 2025 the March 23 Movement (M23) and Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) offensive has pushed southward and seized the strategic military position of Kavumu and captured the regional airport.2Reuters, ‘Congo M23 rebels take airport near Bukavu as president seeks support abroad,’ 14 February 2025 With this advance, the M23-RDF move closer to the South Kivu capital city of Bukavu. Congolese forces and allies had established bases around Kavumu but were quickly defeated following the M23-RDF capture of Ihusi and Kalehe earlier this week.
Ladd Serwat, Senior Africa Analyst at conflict data mapping organization ACLED, said: “M23 forces are now only about 30 kilometers from Bukavu. The initial rapid pace of the M23-RDF southward offensive sparked concerns over the limited resistance in South Kivu province — particularly when M23-RDF reached areas north of Kalehe just days after taking Goma. Our data shows that one of the reasons the M23-RDF were able to rapidly advance into South Kivu was that earlier in January they had already engaged in widespread clashes and taken control of areas from Congolese forces around Minova town, situated in the northern part of South Kivu province.”
“During the last two weeks, Congolese forces and supporting fighters resisted further advances by the M23 and RDF, briefly regaining several areas of the RN2 southward road corridor from Sake to Kalehe. Since the fall of Goma, Congolese troops have received additional support from Burundian3SOS Médias Burundi, ‘War in Eastern Congo : M23 rebels extend their zones of control over South Kivu,’ 22 January 2025 and SADC forces.4Defence Web, ‘Lamola dismisses proposal to withdraw SA troops from the DRC,’ 12 February 2025 Further support has come from Ugandan military forces — newly deployed against the M23 — a controversial move given the prior allegations of Ugandan support for the M23.5Economist Intelligence Unit, ‘Uganda deploys additional troops to DRC,’ 11 February 2025 However, these additional forces were unable to curb the advance of the M23-RDF offensive, which likely signals imminent clashes in Bukavu.”
