Ukraine War Situation Update: 1

1069 political violence events

6% decrease compared to last week

56 incidents of violence targeting civilians

8% decrease compared to last week

At least 34 fatalities from civilian targeting

31% increase compared to last week

Key trends

In the Donetsk region, Russian forces advanced in Toretsk and Chasiv Yar and threatened the H-32 highway linking Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka. They also occupied a settlement northwest of Ocheretyne.
In the Kharkiv region, Russian forces advanced north and south of Dvorichna, seizing two settlements.
ACLED records 20 Russian long-range missile and drone strikes, including attacks on Kyiv city, Kyiv region, and the western region of Khmelnytskyi. Ukrainian forces intercepted strikes in at least 40 other instances in 15 regions.
Russian shelling, missiles, and drones killed at least 32 civilians in the Poltava, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Odesa, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk regions. Ukrainian shelling and drone strikes injured at least 24 civilians in the Russian-occupied Donetsk region.

Key events

1 Feb. | Poltava – A Russian missile strike kills 14 civilians and injures 17 others in Poltava
4 Feb. | Kharkiv – A Russian ballistic missile strikes the Izium city council building, killing five civilians
5 Feb. | Kyiv – Ukraine and Russia exchange 150 prisoners of war from each side

Spotlight: Russian-ordered explosions target recruitment centers in Ukraine

The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) and police recently reported a group of attacks targeting military enlistment centers, military transportation infrastructure, and military recruiters in Ukraine. Russian special services reportedly recruit Ukrainians via messaging apps to prepare, commit, and film the explosions or arson attacks, promising them money as a reward.¹

During the week, individuals recruited by Russian special services detonated explosives near three military enlistment centers in Rivne, Pavlohrad, and Kamianets-Podilskyi, injuring at least one soldier and 10 civilians. Two of the perpetrators died due to the explosions. The SBU and Ukrainian police also arrested individuals who were allegedly preparing to target the SBU headquarters in Kyiv, a police department in Rivne, and a police crew in the Chernivtsi region. These incidents, along with the killing of an officer by a conscript trying to avoid the draft in the Poltava region, have prompted high-level condemnation by the military leadership, investigation, and new security measures at enlistment centers.² Attacks committed by Ukrainians, including those following Russian orders, which had previously been sporadic in mid-2024 before efforts renewed in September, have targeted administrative buildings (Dnipro), enlistment centers (Lutsk, Odesa, Busk), military recruiters in their homes (Cherkasy region), volunteers helping the armed forces (Odesa), military trains and vehicles (Rivne region, Kyiv), police stations and personnel (Kharkiv).

While these attacks may seem to mirror the wave of arson attacks conducted by elderly Russians on banks, postal offices, and police departments in Russia from late 2024, Russian forces often look to recruit younger Ukrainians to target railway infrastructure, police, and military recruitment centers in particular. These Russian-orchestrated attacks may be disguised as acts of dissent to undermine internal mobilization efforts, which are already marred by corruption,³ beatings, forcible transportation,⁴ suspicious deaths of new conscripts,⁵ and regular human rights abuse complaints⁶ in Ukraine.

Explore the ACLED Conflict Exposure tool to assess the numbers of people affected by armed violence, disaggregated by locations, time period, and actors involved.