Press Release: ACLED and FIP Unveil Key Findings on the Civilian Impact of Armed Conflict in Colombia

ACLED and the Ideas for Peace Foundation (FIP) reveal these findings following an analysis of the current impact of disputes between illegal armed groups.
An increasing number of civilians are caught in the crossfire, face movement restrictions, and fall victim to forced recruitment.
Currently, at least 14 areas across the country are contested by armed groups.

Bogotá, Colombia – [26/02/2025]: While lethal violence against civilians in Colombia has declined, coercion by armed groups has surged, leaving millions at risk. This is happening as the conflict shifts toward a hybrid scenario, where organized crime plays a greater role, direct confrontation with the state decreases, and conflict zones become more concentrated. This was the central finding presented today by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) and Fundación Ideas para la Paz (FIP) during a public event in Bogotá, where experts analyzed the evolving security landscape and its implications for civilian protection.

ACLED’s latest report, Civilians in Colombia face less deadly — but more pervasive — violence during Petro’s presidency, highlights a shift in armed groups’ tactics. In 2024, incidents of armed group violence targeting civilians dropped for the first time since 2019, with a 20% decrease. However, territorial disputes between armed groups left more civilians caught in the crossfire and victims of forced recruitment and mobility restrictions, while non-lethal but coercive violence has become a primary tool for control and extraction of illicit revenues.

“Not only are civilians more exposed to turf wars between armed groups, but where these conflicts are fiercer, they are increasingly perceived as active parts of these conflicts, and hence targeted,” said Tiziano Breda, ACLED’s Senior Analyst for Latin America and the Caribbean. “At the same time, kidnappings, used by armed groups both to enforce their governance and to boost profits, have skyrocketed, rising by 122% under President Petro’s administration.”

Meanwhile, Andrés Cajiao, Conflict and Peace Negotiations Coordinator at FIP argued that Colombia’s shifting conflict dynamics demand urgent public policy responses.

“While violence has declined in some areas, coercion and territorial disputes continue to put civilians at risk. The interactions between armed groups and their relationships with communities have been key in shaping violence patterns. In contested areas, the humanitarian impact is particularly severe, while other forms of coercion, including movement restrictions and extortion, remain a concern. In this context, the state’s response has been unclear, making it critical to expand protection measures to mitigate harm and support long-term stability,” he stated.

“While some areas have seen reductions in violence, coercion and territorial disputes continue to put millions of civilians at risk. Strengthening governance in conflict zones and expanding protection measures are critical to mitigating harm and fostering lasting stability,” he said.

Key findings from ACLED analysis:

Armed groups are shifting from lethal violence to coercive tactics, including extortion, kidnapping, and restrictions on civilian movement.
Civilians remain trapped in territorial disputes among armed groups. Colombians’ exposure to violence has risen by 24% during the first 30 months of Petro’s presidency compared to the previous 30-month period
Kidnappings have increased by 122%, with armed groups exploiting ransom payments to fund operations, but also punishing disobedience to their rule.
Threats against political figures are on the rise. Violence targeting them has increased by 71% under Petro’s government.
While regional peace talks have helped reduce violence in some areas, conflict has escalated elsewhere, underscoring the urgent need for comprehensive protection strategies.

FIP analysis on conflict dynamics and humanitarian impact:

The decline in mass violence is part of the transformation of the armed conflict into a hybrid scenario, where organized crime plays a greater role, direct confrontation with the state decreases, and conflict zones become more concentrated.
The interactions between armed groups—whether in contested or controlled areas—and their relationships with communities are key factors in the manifestation of violence. The humanitarian impact is focused in contested areas, while less visible forms of violence intensify in areas under control.
During the Total Peace process, armed groups modified their use of violence, seeking to obscure the effects of their actions.
Control over economies is the primary objective of these groups, positioning the population at the center of territorial control. Communities’ dependence on the development of economic activities limits the excessive use of violence.
The state has become a spectator of violence, showing little influence on its course. In recent years, the decline in violence has been tied to the ‘will’ of armed and criminal groups.

The event gathered policymakers, journalists, civil society leaders, and international observers to discuss the path forward for Colombia as the country navigates ongoing violence and instability.