Regional Overview
Asia-Pacific
May 2025

Posted: 9 May 2025

In this Regional Overview covering April 2025

India: A deadly militant attack in Kashmir escalates tensions with Pakistan
Indonesia: Rebels target miners in deadly attacks in Highland Papua
Myanmar: The military increases offensives against the Ta’ang Army in northern Shan state
Pakistan: Security forces crack down on militants in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Philippines: Chinese, Philippine coast guards face off following Hegseth’s Manila visit

India: A deadly militant attack in Kashmir escalates tensions with Pakistan

On 22 April, separatist militants shot and killed at least 26 tourists, mostly Hindus, in the resort town of Pahalgam in the Kashmir Valley, in what was the deadliest attack on civilians in nearly two decades.¹ Initial reports attributed the attack to The Resistance Front (TRF), believed to be an offshoot of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT).² However, TRF later denied involvement, stating their online platforms, where the attack was claimed, had been compromised.³ Indian security forces are still searching for the perpetrators, some of whom were also reportedly involved in a deadly attack in the Ganderbal district last year, which was attributed to the TRF.⁴ According to ACLED data, TRF has been involved in at least 23 attacks targeting civilians, mainly non-Kashmiris and Hindus, since the group’s founding in 2019.

India accused Pakistan of orchestrating the attack and introduced a slew of diplomatic measures.⁵ For its part, the Pakistani government condemned the attack and called for an independent investigation.⁶ Though neither side has formally reneged on the 2021 ceasefire agreement along the Line of Control (LoC) separating the Indian- and Pakistan-administered parts of Kashmir, ACLED records nightly cross-border exchanges between the two countries’ militaries since the attack. This comes on the back of ongoing tensions — even before the attack, more clashes had been recorded between India and Pakistan’s security forces in 2025 so far than in any single year since 2021.

The situation escalated on 7 May, as India carried out missile strikes targeting what it called “terrorist infrastructure,” including training camps and seminaries linked to the LeT and the Jaish-e-Mohammad, the group behind the 2019 Pulwama attack, at nine places within Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Pakistan.⁷ In response, Pakistan claimed to have shot down five Indian jets;⁸ India accepted at least three “crashes” and local media confirmed an additional crash.⁹ Cross-border clashes along the LoC, which had until now only involved small arms, subsequently intensified.¹⁰ With Pakistan reserving the right to respond, and the full impact of India’s strikes and the border clashes still emerging, the situation remains tense.

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Indonesia: Rebels target miners in deadly attacks in Highland Papua

In Highland Papua, the West Papua National Liberation Army (TPNPB) reportedly killed at least 23 gold miners during attacks in Yahukimo and Pegunungan Bintang regencies in April. The rebels shot dead a miner near the Kali Silet area on 6 April, while 22 others were killed in subsequent attacks between 6 and 10 April. Victims suffered gunshot wounds, machete slashes, and arrow injuries. Dozens of survivors were evacuated, at least eight miners went missing, and two were kidnapped. The TPNPB also burned down 10 mining camps during the month.¹¹ A TPNPB spokesperson claimed the victims were non-Indigenous Papuans engaged in illegal mining and accused them of being armed spies for Indonesian authorities — a claim denied by Indonesian armed forces.¹²

Mining remains a major source of conflict in Papua, a region that produces about 2% of the world’s gold.¹³ The TPNPB has repeatedly demanded the cessation of mining activities. The group is believed to partly finance its activities through illegal mining in Intan Jaya, Paniai, Timika, and Yahukimo regencies. These latest incidents led to April becoming the deadliest month for mining worker victims of armed violence in Papua, accounting for over 40% of conflict-related fatalities in the region thus far this year.

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Myanmar: The military increases offensives against the Ta’ang Army in northern Shan state

The Myanmar military intensified its offensive to regain territories captured by the Palaung State Liberation Front/Ta’ang National Liberation Army (PSLF/TNLA) in northern Shan State in April. On 1 April, the military conducted seven airstrikes in Nawnghkio township in a single day. The strikes came amid a one-month unilateral ceasefire announced by the Three Brotherhood Alliance — of which the PSLF/TNLA is a member — for relief efforts after an earthquake on 28 March. Although the military also declared a reciprocal ceasefire, effective from 2 to 30 April after an extension, it proceeded with more than 300 airstrikes across the country, including in areas controlled by the PSLF/TNLA in Mogoke and Nawnghkio townships. Fighting also broke out on the ground between the PSLF/TNLA and military columns advancing from Tawng Hkam and Ohn Ma Thee villages of Nawnghkio township throughout the month. The military was recently able to recapture Me Poke and Nawng Len villages, giving it an advantage to push further into PSLF/TNLA areas.

The military was able to relocate resources to its campaign against the PSLF/TNLA after the Myanmar National Truth and Justice Party/Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNTJP/MNDAA) withdrew from nearby Lashio town between 15 and 22 April as part of a ceasefire brokered by China. This military’s reestablishment of control in Lashio means a weakening of PSLF/TNLA positions in adjoining areas such as Hsipaw and Hseni. Clashes between the military and PSLF/TNLA are likely to increase, as recent talks brokered by China failed to result in a ceasefire or agreement.¹⁴ The military demands that the PSLF/TNLA retreat from all their captured territories, which the PSLF/TNLA refuses to do.¹⁵ The group claimed it would continue working with other resistance groups to fight against the junta.

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Pakistan: Security forces crack down on militants in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Between 25 and 27 April, the Pakistani military reportedly killed at least 71 militants as they were attempting to infiltrate Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s North Waziristan district from Afghanistan, the stronghold of the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan – Hafiz Gul Bahadur (TTP-HGB). The army claimed that this was the highest-ever number of militants killed in a single engagement, though this has not been independently verified.¹⁶ The newly formed Ittehad ul-Mujahideen Pakistan, an alliance of the TTP-HGB, Lashkar-e-Islam, and Harakat-e-Inqila-e-Islami, confirmed the fatalities, which mark a crushing blow to the group only 10 days after its founding. The engagement followed the killing of a senior Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) commander, marked as a potential successor for the leadership, during an operation on 10 April in Lower Dir district.¹⁷

These recent military successes may further push the militants to adopt less risky remote violence tactics, the use of which has increased since 14 March, when the TTP launched its Al-Khandaq spring offensive, deploying “targeted … and suicide attacks” against security forces, among other means.¹⁸ According to ACLED data, remote violence and violence targeting civilians by militants increased in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in April compared to the month prior, even as direct clashes between the militants and security forces decreased.

Rising Islamist militancy in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has strained Pakistan’s already tenuous relations with its neighbors. Pakistan implied that India is involved in the latest infiltration attempt in North Waziristan in a spillover of tensions between the two countries over Kashmir and has previously accused Afghanistan of harboring TTP militants.¹⁹ Between 11 and 12 April, the Pakistani military fired mortar shells across the Durand Line into Afghanistan’s Nuristan province, targeting TTP militants reportedly involved in a previous attack in Pakistan’s Chitral district, wounding two civilians. According to ACLED data, this was the first such Pakistani attack recorded in Nuristan province, an area that has historically had a strong TTP presence,²⁰ since February 2022.

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Philippines: Chinese, Philippine coast guards face off following Hegseth’s Manila visit

Tensions between China and the Philippines rose anew in April as their militaries faced off in the disputed territorial waters of the South China Sea. On 6 April, a Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) vessel nearly collided with a China Coast Guard (CCG) vessel near Capones Island around the coast of Zambales, after both sides exchanged radio challenges. The next day, still off the coast of Zambales, a CCG vessel reportedly attempted to ram a PCG vessel, an act characterized by the Philippine side as a dangerous maneuver. The PCG alleged that the CCG has been deploying vessels off the coast of Zambales since January in an apparent attempt to “normalize” the presence of Chinese vessels there, though the PCG vowed to challenge this assertion.²¹

The confrontations at sea came just days after United States Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s high-profile visit to Manila in late March, where he and his Philippine counterparts reaffirmed the US and the Philippines’ military alliance and stressed the importance of deterrence against Chinese threats.²² China reacted negatively to Hegseth’s visit, seeing it as “aggravating regional tensions,” referencing the contested status not only of the South China Sea but also Taiwan.²³ On the heels of Hegseth’s visit, the Philippine military chief told the armed forces to prepare for the possibility of China’s invasion of Taiwan.²⁴ Tensions between the Philippines and China continued to flare for the rest of the month. In mid-April, China released photographs showing the Chinese military raising the Chinese flag in Sandy Cay, another disputed part of the South China Sea. A few days later, Philippine soldiers returned the gesture and raised the Philippine flag in the same area. Both sides exchanged condemnations for the rival operations.

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Methodology

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