1,402 political violence events
4% increase compared to last week
81 incidents of violence targeting civilians
27% decrease compared to last week
At least 31 fatalities from civilian targeting
14% decrease compared to last week
Key trends
- In the Donetsk region, Russian forces continued to advance around Pokrovsk, seizing a village east of the city. Russian forces also made advances south and southwest of Kostiantynivka and west of Velyka Novosilka.
- Russian forces made gains north of Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region and near the international border with Russia in the Sumy region.
- ACLED records at least 23 Russian long-range missile and drone strikes, including in Kyiv city and the Kyiv region, as well as the western regions of Rivne, Ternopil, and Ivano-Frankivsk.
- Russian shelling, missiles, aerial bombs, and drones killed at least 18 civilians in the Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Sumy regions. Ukrainian shelling and drone strikes reportedly killed 13 civilians in the Russian-occupied parts of the Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia regions.
Key events
- 12 May | Kherson – A Ukrainian drone reportedly hits a house in Russian-occupied Chelburda, killing four civilians
- 14 May | Sumy – Russian missiles strike an industrial facility in Sumy city, killing three civilians and wounding nine
- 15 May | Crimea – Ukrainian security services strike a Russian ammunition depot near Perevalne
Spotlight: Russia demands recognition of occupied territory in talks with Ukraine
On 16 May, direct peace talks between Ukraine and Russia took place in Istanbul, Turkey, for the first time since 2022. Despite Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyi’s proposal that he and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin hold a personal meeting, Russia sent a delegation headed by presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky.1Mehmet Guzel, Hanna Arhirova, and Suzan Fraser, “Putin spurns Zelenskyy meeting but lower-level Ukraine-Russia talks are still on,” The Associated Press, 15 May 2025 Russia also appeared to show no interest in an unconditional 30-day ceasefire, previously proposed by the US and agreed to by Ukraine. Russia has reportedly hinged its agreement to a ceasefire on Ukraine’s acceptance of extensive demands for a peace settlement.2Steve Holland, Guy Faulconbridge, and Olena Harmash, “Trump says Russia, Ukraine agree to immediate ceasefire talks, Kremlin offers no timeframe,” Reuters, 18 May 2025 These reportedly include cutting Ukraine off from Western military aid; scaling back its armed forces;3Pjotr Sauer, “Trump and Putin hold phone call but Kremlin refuses Ukraine ceasefire,” The Guardian 20 May 2025 withdrawing its troops from the entire Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson regions, as well as international recognition of these regions and the Crimean peninsula as Russian; neutral status of Ukraine; and no war reparations.4Anna Harvey, et al., “Russian offensive campaign assessment, May 17, 2025,” Institute for the Study of War, 17 May 2025 Ukraine’s delegation referred to these demands as “non-starters”5Patricia Zengerle, “‘Non-starter’ Ukraine talks renew call for US sanctions bill,” Reuters, 16 May 2025 that would significantly compromise Ukraine’s future security and sovereignty.
Despite the lack of progress, the delegations agreed to swap 1,000 prisoners of war each in the coming weeks.6Anna Fratsyvir, “Ukraine’s Security Service begins preparations for 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner swap with Russia,” The Kyiv Independent, 17 May 2025 To increase pressure on Russia to accept a ceasefire, the European Union began working on a new package of sanctions against Russia, targeting the Nord Stream pipelines, banking sector, and Russia’s “shadow fleet” vessels used to bypass oil sanctions.7Clea Caulcutt and Koen Verhelst, “EU eyes sanctions targeting Nord Stream and banking sector to pressure Putin,” Politico, 16 May 2025
Explore the ACLED Conflict Exposure tool to assess the numbers of people affected by armed violence, disaggregated by locations, time period, and actors involved.
