Q&A | What can the LA demonstrations — and Trump’s reaction to them — tell us about what lies ahead?

In your recent expert comment, you said this is the most explosive escalation of tensions between demonstrators and police since the rise of the Black Lives Matter movement. Why is that?

Simply put, this is the first time the National Guard has been deployed in response to  demonstrations in California since the height of the Black Lives Matter movement, almost exactly five years ago. Though we have seen several other large and sometimes violent demonstrations in recent years, none have seen this kind of intervention. 

Of course, this didn’t all start on 6 June. To put the current moment into context, demonstrations showing solidarity with migrants have surged in 2025, largely in response to President Donald Trump’s mass deportations agenda. In less than six months, we’ve seen more pro-immigration demonstrations than in the previous five years combined (see graph below). California is the state with the highest number of these demonstrations over this timespan, with more than 370 recorded events.

ACLED records multiple incidents of confrontation between demonstrators and state forces during demonstrations around the country (see map below), including where demonstrators used their bodies to try to block law enforcement vehicles from carrying out immigration raids. This tactic is reminiscent of those used against US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations on June 6, which directly preceded the current outbreak of demonstrations. 

While violent confrontations have been previously recorded — including a demonstration on 3 February that saw police confronting large groups of demonstrators, demonstrators throwing objects at police, and hundreds of detentions — tensions did not rise at that time in the way we’re seeing now. 

In contrast, the demonstrations we’ve been watching in Los Angeles have led President Trump to call the National Guard and US Marines to California, marking the first time the president, rather than a governor, has activated the National Guard since the 1992 Rodney King riots. Those 1992 riots were among the deadliest in American history.¹Brian Melley, “LA protests far different from ’92 Rodney King riots,” ABC News, 10 June 2025 They were far larger and saw violence on a much greater scale than what’s taking place now. And unlike what played out in 1992, Trump activated the National Guard despite the objections of California Governor Newsom.²Graham Kates and Joe Walsh, “California sues Trump administration for deploying National Guard to Los Angeles: ‘Unprecedented power grab,'” CBS, 9 June 2025 That dynamic is one reason the current situation feels so confrontational. 

This confrontation is taking place not only on the streets, but also in the courts: following a lawsuit from Newsom, a federal judge blocked the deployment of the National Guard on 12 June. This decision was temporarily halted by an appeals court later the same day.³Lily Jamali, ‘Appeals court temporarily allows Trump to keep National Guard in LA,’ BBC, 13 June 2025

We’ve mostly been seeing these dramatic images coming out of LA, but to what extent are we seeing this in other parts of the country? 

The demonstrations have grown and spread to several locations across Los Angeles County, but the majority of the city remains unaffected. Elsewhere in California, our data show dozens of rallies in solidarity with demonstrators in Los Angeles and denouncing ICE. We’ve only seen a handful of additional violence between demonstrators and law enforcement, including two consecutive nights in San Francisco. 

Solidarity demonstrations have spread across the country, with more than 50 demonstration events outside California between 6 and 9 June (see map below).  This outgrowth of demonstrations is particularly noticeable in Texas, where large crowds of demonstrators clashed with law enforcement in Austin and Dallas. Texas is also the only state other than California to deploy the National Guard. Texas Governor Greg Abbott ordered their deployment on 10 June, the day after these demonstrations erupted, and has called for the National Guard to assist law enforcement with managing demonstrations planned for this upcoming Saturday.⁴Jim Vertuno, “Gov. Abbott deploys over 5,000 Texas National Guard troops ahead of planned ‘No Kings’ protests,” The Associated Press, 12 June 2025 

The tactics we saw in Los Angeles that I mentioned earlier — demonstrators trying to stop deportations by using their bodies to block law enforcement vehicles  — have also been recorded in several instances since 6 June. For example, on 7 June, demonstrators blocked a van from leaving an ICE facility in New York, leading to a confrontation in which more than 20 people were arrested. On 8 June in Hamilton, Ohio, demonstrators gathered outside a jail where a man had been detained by ICE, leading to one arrest. In Peoria, Arizona, demonstrators mobilized outside a house where an ICE operation was taking place on 10 June — in a scuffle with local police, one demonstrator was arrested.

What does this mean for the planned protests over the weekend? 

Since the initial response at the end of last weekend, we’ve seen a lull in demonstrations across the country. However, more than 1,500 anti-Trump demonstrations under the banner of “No Kings” had already been planned for this Saturday, 14 June, which coincides with Trump’s parade to commemorate the US Army’s 250th birthday.

The last nationwide demonstrations against the Trump administration on this scale were around the “Hands Off” day of action on 5 April. Those demonstrations were organized by a coalition of different groups, many of which are also involved in organizing the forthcoming No Kings demonstrations.⁵Chris Hippensteel, “What We Know About the ‘No Kings’ Protests on Saturday,” New York Times, 13 June 2025 That mobilization resulted in the highest number of demonstration events — more than 900 — in a single day in the United States since ACLED began covering the country in 2020. However, it’s worth noting that we recorded essentially zero violence at those demonstrations. 

This may be an encouraging sign for what to expect this weekend. On the other hand, recent clashes between demonstrators and law enforcement, the targeting of journalists during demonstrations, and continued fears over immigration raids have resulted in bubbling tensions. Although the No Kings organizers have taken steps to avoid confrontation – including holding de-escalation trainings, appointing “peacekeepers,” and deliberately not planning any demonstrations in Washington DC, where the military parade will take place⁶Olivia George,et. al., “What to know about the Army parade in D.C. on Saturday, Trump’s birthday” The Washington Post, 13 June 2025  — this climate increases the risk of violence this coming weekend.⁷No Kings, “A note on Washington, D.C.,” accessed 13 June 2025; No Kings, “Trainings,” accessed 13 June 2025