Ukraine war situation update 31 May

1,550 political violence events

3% increase compared to last week

107 incidents of violence targeting civilians

1% decrease compared to last week

At least 47 fatalities from civilian targeting

9% increase compared to last week

Key trends

In the Donetsk region, Russian forces made territorial gains in the area of Pokrovsk, north of Velyka Nososilka, south of Kramatorsk, and north of Lyman, occupying at least four settlements.
Russian forces seized five settlements near the international border north of Sumy city and advanced north of Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region.
ACLED records at least 40 Russian long-range missile and drone strikes, including in Kyiv city and the Kyiv region, as well as in the western regions of Lviv, Volyn, Khmelnytskyi, and Ternopil.
Russian shelling, missiles, aerial bombs, and drones killed at least 46 civilians in the Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Sumy, Volyn, and Zaporizhia regions and Kyiv city.

Key events

2 Jun. | Luhansk – Russian forces transport 150 Ukrainian children from occupied Rovenky to a camp in Russia
3 Jun. | Sumy – Russian shelling kills four civilians and wounds 28 in Sumy city
6 Jun. | Kyiv city – Russian drones and missiles kill three emergency workers and wound over 30 people

Spotlight: Ukraine scales up attacks on Russian airbases and supply routes

On 1 June, 117 Ukrainian drones carried out an unprecedented series of simultaneous attacks on multiple stationary military aircraft at airfields in Russia’s Bryansk, Ryazan, Ivanovo, Murmansk, Irkutsk, and Amur regions. The Ukrainian military claimed the drones hit a total of 41 aircraft — over a third of all Russian strategic cruise missile carriers.¹ Available visual evidence suggests around a dozen bomber jets may have been destroyed.² For the attacks in the remote regions of Murmansk, Irkutsk, and Amur — the latter two hitherto beyond the reach of the Ukrainian military — Ukrainian special services smuggled drones into Russia, which were unknowingly transported by truck drivers.³ The truck transporting drones in the Amur region exploded en route to the Ukrainka airfield. Ukraine also attempted several other attacks on military airfields during the week, successfully hitting at least one in the Voronezh region on 2 June.

Meanwhile, a series of explosions hit railway infrastructure in Russia and occupied parts of Ukraine. The deadliest one took place on 31 May, when an explosion in the Bryansk region caused a bridge to collapse on a passenger train, killing seven civilians and wounding 127 others. Four more explosions damaging civilian or service trains or railway tracks were recorded in the Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod, and Voronezh regions throughout the week, in addition to a Russian military train that was blown up in the occupied part of the Zaporizhia region. On 3 June, Ukraine attacked the Kerch bridge for the third time since 2022 using underwater explosives that damaged the base of the bridge. The bridge connects occupied Crimea with Russia.⁴

Russia accused Ukrainian military intelligence of being behind the bombings in Russia;⁵ Ukraine claimed responsibility for the Kerch bridge and Zaporizhia explosions but not for the rest of the incidents.⁶ Ukrainian military intelligence and pro-Ukrainian partisan groups have frequently targeted Russian railway infrastructure with explosions or arson attacks. ACLED records over 200 such events since Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, of which over 80% occurred in Russia proper.