In a major escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict, the United States conducted a series of airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities over the weekend. This follows Israel’s preemptive strikes on Iran under Operation Rising Lion that began on 13 June with the aim of neutralizing Tehran’s nuclear capabilities and deterring further attacks. Following the Israeli strikes, the Houthis condemned Israel’s “unchecked aggression,”1Yemen News Agency, “Remarks by Leader Al-Sayyid Abdul Malik Badruddin Al-Houthi on Israeli Aggression Against Islamic Republic of Iran,” 14 June 2025 but took no corresponding action. But what impact will these US strikes have on Houthi activity and the fate of the US-Houthi ceasefire in the Red Sea?
Dr. Luca Nevola, ACLED Senior Analyst for Yemen and the Gulf, said:
“Amid the regional escalation, the Houthis have adopted a low-profile posture. In a clear de-escalatory pattern, they have limited their activity to a single attack on Israel since 13 June. Despite repeated threats, they have also refrained from resuming strikes on commercial shipping. This suggests an effort to avoid further escalating regional tensions — a pattern of behavior similar to that observed after Iran’s first attack on Israel on 14 April 2024, when Houthi attacks ceased completely for nine days.”
On Saturday, 21 June, the eve of Washington’s strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, the Houthis vowed to resume attacks on US warships in case of “American aggression in support of the Israeli enemy against the Islamic Republic of Iran.”2X @AminHian, 21 June 2025 (Arabic)
Nevola continued, “The recent US strike may usher in a new chapter of uncertainty. The Houthis maintain the capacity to target US warships and may seek to launch symbolic attacks to back up their threats. However, such actions are likely to remain limited, as they seek to avoid further escalation.”
Note to editors:
Houthi attacks on US warships had ceased on 6 May, following an Omani-mediated ceasefire agreement with Washington.
For more information or to interview Luca Nevola, please contact Gina Dorso at [email protected].
ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data) is a global monitor that collects, analyzes, and maps data on conflict and protest. ACLED provides detailed information to help identify, understand, and track patterns and trends in conflict and crisis situations around the world.
