Use the Subnational Hotspot Mapper to pinpoint local-level conflict spikes on a week-to-week basis. The interactive dashboard tracks all first-order administrative divisions, or ADM1s (e.g. states, provinces, governorates, etc.), from around the world that registered a significant increase in political violence — at least 200% — last week relative to last month. Clicking on each ADM1 zooms in on a country-level map that displays the hotspot.1The dashboard is limited to those ADM1s where the four-week average number of events is at least one. This setting weeds out cases in which an ADM1 that does not usually experience political violence registers a single event, which would trigger a large percent change.
Once identified, how can you assess the volatility of a local hotspot? Countries prone to frequent spikes in political violence — i.e. highly volatile states — are at heightened risk of further escalation. To better understand how common conflict spikes are within a particular ADM1 — i.e. whether the increase is an anomaly — use the Volatility & Risk Index.