ACLED
Early Warning

Subnational Threat & Surge Trackers

Overview

Use the Subnational Threat & Surge Trackers to pinpoint local-level spikes in violence. The interactive dashboards track all first-order administrative divisions (e.g. states, provinces, governorates, etc.) that register a significant increase in political violence. The Subnational Surge Tracker flags cases in which a first-order administrative division saw an increase of 100% or more in violent events last week relative to the average number of events per week over the past month. These surges capture immediate spikes, some of which might be an early warning for a further increase in violence. The Subnational Threat Tracker notes when a first-order administrative division saw an increase of 100% or more in violence last month relative to the average number of events per month over the past year, capturing rising threats. Clicking on each first-order administrative division zooms in on a country-level map that displays the hotspot.1 The dashboard is limited to those first-order administrative divisions where the four-week average number of events is at least one. This setting weeds out cases in which a first-order administrative division that does not usually experience political violence registers a single event, which would trigger a large percent change.

Subnational Surge Tracker

Subnational Threat Tracker

More Information

How can you assess the volatility of violence in an administrative unit? Countries prone to frequent spikes in political violence (highly volatile states) are at heightened risk of further escalation. Use the Volatility & Risk Predictability Index to better understand how common or rare conflict spikes are within a particular first-order administrative division.