On 2 June, voters across Mexico will head to the polls in the largest elections in the country’s history. With 19,634 positions up for grabs, the 2024 electoral cycle contemplates the election of a new president for a six-year term, senators, and deputies members of the General Congress. Local elections will also take place in some Mexican states, including the renewal of deputies in state congress, municipal elections according to each federal entity’s legislation, and a race for governor in nine of the 32 Mexican states.
Against a backdrop of persisting violence targeting political figures during past elections and in light of the magnitude of the 2024 vote, observers fear that this year’s elections could reach a new record of violence. Drawing on ACLED’s ongoing research, violence targeting politicians and officials has principally affected political figures at the subnational level, with each state and municipality being subjected to varying trends and drivers. The 2024 Mexico Special Election series seeks to explore the drivers of violence targeting political figures at the subnational levels, especially in states with significant levels of such violence. Throughout the series, the targeting of political figures will refer to violent incidents physically targeting government officials, civil servants, politicians, as well as candidates running in elections and political party supporters. It also considers disorder involving party supporters and violence directed at politicians, and government infrastructure and properties.
El 2 de junio los votantes en todo México se dirigirán a las urnas en las elecciones más grandes de la historia del país. Con 19.634 cargos a elegir, el ciclo electoral de 2024 contempla la elección de un nuevo presidente para un término de seis años, senadores y diputados miembros del Congreso General. En algunos estados mexicanos, también se llevarán a cabo elecciones locales, incluyendo la renovación de diputados en el congreso estatal, elecciones municipales de acuerdo con la legislación de cada entidad federal y elecciones para gobernador en nueve de los 32 estados.
Frente a la persistente violencia dirigida a figuras políticas durante las últimas elecciones, y a la luz de la magnitud del voto de 2024, los observadores temen que las elecciones de este año alcancen un nuevo récord de violencia. De acuerdo con la investigación que ACLED está llevando a cabo, la violencia dirigida a políticos y funcionarios ha afectado principalmente a las figuras políticas a nivel subnacional, con cada estado y municipalidad sometidos a diversas tendencias y factores que llevan a la violencia. La serie especial sobre las elecciones en México de 2024 busca explorar los factores que están detrás de la violencia dirigida a las figuras políticas a nivel subnacional, especialmente en los estados que muestran niveles significativos de dicha violencia. A lo largo de la serie, se hará referencia a la violencia dirigida a figuras políticas, la cual se entiende como incidentes violentos en los que han habido agresiones físicas contra funcionarios de gobierno, servidores públicos, políticos, así como también contra candidatos que compiten en las elecciones y a aquellos que apoyan a partidos políticos. También se consideran los disturbios que involucran a simpatizantes de los partidos y la violencia contra propiedades de políticos, e infraestructura del gobierno.
Attacks related to political competition and attempts to put pressure on authorities at the local level — primarily perpetrated by organized crime groups — characterized the violence around the 2024 election cycle in Mexico, according to ACLED data.
Land conflicts and competition between communities are behind much of the violence against political figures in Chiapas and Oaxaca. This report examines how these factors fuel targeted violence around election periods.
In the states of Mexico, Puebla, and Veracruz, violence around election cycles is more likely to be influenced by local power dynamics that are not always directly related to criminal groups as is the case in many other areas of Mexico.
In Mexico’s Guanajuato, Guerrero, and Michoacán states, violence targeting political figures generally occurs in hotspots of gang disputes. Past municipal elections have acted as a catalyzer of violence, and the trend is likely to continue during the 2024 electoral cycles.
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