A series of military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger in recent years have transformed military dynamics in the region, shifting bilateral assistance from traditional Western partners like France and the United States to Russia, through mercenaries from the Wagner Group and its successor, Africa Corps. Despite these seismic changes, the Islamist insurgency spearheaded by the local al-Qaeda offshoot, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), and the Sahel province of the Islamic State (IS Sahel) has intensified and increased. In the first half of 2024, the three Sahelian states saw a 9% increase in fatalities compared to the same period in 2023, 37% compared to 2022, and a staggering 190% compared to 2021.
Read ACLED analysis report: Newly restructured, the Islamic State in the Sahel aims for regional expansion
