5 September 2024 Update: Integration of fatality estimates and new events from Human Rights Watch Report for West Darfur, Sudan

Published on: 5 September 2024

From late April 2023, violent clashes broke out between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and allied militias and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Massalit militias. Over the weeks following these clashes, reports indicate that RSF and allied militias systematically targeted and killed ethnic Massalit civilians in El Geneina and surrounding areas in West Darfur. Human Rights Watch (HRW) published a report titled ‘The Massalit Will Not Come Home’: Ethnic Cleansing and Crimes Against Humanity in El Geneina, West Darfur, Sudan¹ detailing mass killings in West Darfur during the period of April to November 2023 based on interviews with direct witnesses to the violence, and aid workers. Based on this report, ACLED updated events and fatality estimates for West Darfur, Sudan.

Key Changes

Impacted data: The data corrections span from 10 April to 4 November 2023, the period for which the HRW investigation covered. The majority of events corrected occurred between 20 April to 15 July 2023. Corrections were limited to events in the Admin 2 level of El Geneina, with the exception of one event in Misterei, Beida.

Publication Date: The corrected data were published on 2 September 2024.

Summary of changes:

Fatalities: Based on HRW’s report, 1835 fatalities were added to events during the period of 20 April to 15 July 2024. Additionally, 800 fatalities were added to an event on 4 November in Ardamata. Thus, the total new fatalities added from the HRW report is 2635.

Events: A total of 91 new events were added to the data. These include; 44 Violence against Civilians events, 7 Battles events, 11 Explosions/Remove Violence events and 28 Strategic development events.

How ACLED incorporated data from the HRW report

Fatalities distribution and splitting: HRW reported 2600 fatalities of which ACLED was able to attribute 1112 fatalities to specific events for which ACLED had already recorded a total of 765 fatalities. The remaining 723 fatalities could not be attributed to specific events and were distributed between 34 Armed Clash and Attack events coded for the period in line with ACLED methodology around fatality estimates.

Mass Grave events: Based on witness statements, HRW reports that 3900 people were buried in mass graves during the height of hostilities. ACLED coded 13 new Strategic Development events as Mass Graves (in addition to a correction of a previous Mass Grave event already in the data) to account for some of these burials. These events are coded based only on the statements of witnesses which included specific information on the dates of the burials.

Why do ACLED’s fatality estimates for Sudan seem low?

During one year of fighting in Sudan, from April 2023 to April 2024, ACLED recorded close to 19.000 fatalities as a direct result of political violence. Over the same period, the United Nations in Sudan annual report 2023 estimated 14.000 women, men and children killed. Still, the ACLED fatality figure is a conservative estimate (see ACLED fatalities methodology) with true fatality numbers likely ranging significantly higher. For example, in a report to the UN Security Council, a panel of experts on Sudan wrote “According to intelligence sources, between 10,000 and 15,000 people were killed in El Geneina alone”.

There are several reasons why ACLED’s fatality estimates may range lower than some other sources report.

ACLED uses conservative fatality estimates. Conflicting reports on the number of people killed in an event are summarized in the Notes and the lower number is reported in the Fatalities variable. This ensures that the fatality estimate ACLED produces can be said to be ‘at least’ the reported number.
ACLED does not incorporate aggregate national fatality statistics, such as those reported by hospitals, morgues or government statistics offices. It is often not clear not clear which part of these reported fatalities resulted from direct violence, which ACLED records, or if they are indirectly related to the violence, for example as a result of famine, lack of care or displacement, which ACLED does not record. In addition, such general fatality statistics are difficult to attribute to specific events and very difficult to verify in general. For similar reasons, the intelligence sources estimate of 10,000 to 15,000 killed at Al Geneina, mentioned in the expert panel report, is not included in ACLED’s fatality estimate. Instead, ACLED reviewed the more specific and documented claims in that same expert panel report and coded the relevant events and fatalities.
ACLED improves its historical event data and fatality estimates when new information on specific incidents becomes available, as done with the Human Rights Watch report on West Darfur.