Analysis of ACLED data for February on political violence and protest trends across Africa, highlighting potential early warning signs for closer monitoring.
Nigeria's historic elections are threatened by rising insecurity. This report assesses political violence trends going into the vote and the risk of escalation in the post-election period.
The presence of over a hundred armed groups engaging in multiple conflicts over territorial and resource control continued to create instability in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) in 2022.
Nigeria’s federal elections constitute a watershed moment for the country’s democratic history. President Muhammadu Buhari is barred from running for a third term through term limit legislation, while the end of his presidency marks the longest democratic stretch since independence.
Intra-party clashes continued to dominate the political landscape as Nigerians count down to the 25 February presidential poll. Socio-economic considerations also came to the fore in response to the Central Bank’s deadline to return old Naira notes, resulting in an increased demand for cash and concerns over disadvantages for unbanked parts of the population. Additionally, several court cases and subsequent judgments arose in response to several election-related petitions, with the most consequential being a tribunal decision to reverse the July 2022 Osun State governorship election. Finally, a growing number of security-related incidents, including attacks directed towards a presidential candidate and current president, continued to show the scale of the challenge ahead of government officials in ensuring that the polls proceed without disruption.
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