Apathy, Intimidation and Non-Violence in Zimbabwe’s Contentious By-Elections

By the end of the 10th of June by-elections, the ruling Zimbabwean African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) had won all 16 contested constituencies. In the run up to the contest, the by-elections had pitted current ZANU-PF insiders against party exiles who had been purged for their alleged connections to ex-Vice President Joice Mjuru.…

Failed Negotiations and Separatist Violence in Myanmar

Recent fighting between Myanmar Armed Forces and ethnic armed groups threatens to derail the Myanmar Peace Process. The Myanmar military has clashed with the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Arakan Army (AA), Kachin Independence Army (KIA), Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) in the past three months.…

Political Factionalism and Electoral Competition in Zimbabwe

Conflict levels decreased to below average levels in May. This decline follows a spike in violence in April which saw levels of political violence not witnessed since the expulsion of Joice Mujuru and her supporters from the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) in December and January.…

Al Shabaab in Tanzania: Current Status and Potential Future Patterns

Although Tanzania holds a reputation for peace and stability, the country has experienced an increase in violent Islamist-related activity in 2015. The most recent attack occurred on the 14th of April in the eastern Morogoro Region (see Figure 1), when a suspected Al Shabaab militant attacked a police officer with a machete.…

The Exportation of Ugandan Rebel Violence: A Comparison of the Allied Democratic Forces and Lord’s Resistance Army

In the past few weeks, the Alliance of Democratic Forces (ADF, formerly the Alliance of Democratic Forces – National Army for the Liberation of Uganda, ADF-NALU) has experienced several setbacks. Dozens of its soldiers have been killed or captured, including senior personnel, while its leader, Jamil Mukulu, was arrested in Tanzania at the end of April (Wall Street Journal, 2015).…

Counter-Insurgency and Violence Against Civilians in Eastern Congo

Since the beginning of 2015, numerous offensives have been launched by the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo (FARDC). These include operations against Rwandan FDLR rebels in North and South Kivu and Katanga, Ugandan ADF rebels in the areas north of the town of Beni (which has been the site of frequent attacks on civilians), the FNL around the Uvira plateaus, FRPI militiamen in the territory of Walendu Bindi, and the APCLS in the Lukweti area.…