Dynamic Conflicts and Static Promises: Shifting Advantage, the Political Marketplace and Broken Ceasefires

Africa, Civilians At Risk, Focus On Militias, Political Stability, Violence Against Civilians
In the past half-decade, multiple peace agreements and ceasefires have been implemented in various African countries to solve ongoing political conflicts on the continent. The most notable examples during this period are Mali, Central African Republic and South Sudan.…

Where’s ISIS in all this crisis?

Africa, Analysis, Civilians At Risk, Current Hotspots, Focus On Militias, Islamic State, Islamist Violence, Political Stability, Remote Violence, Violence Against Civilians
The Egyptian air force’s bombing campaign in Libya’s eastern city of Derna on the 16th February in retaliation of the killing of 21 Coptic Egyptians has sought to raise fundamental questions over the extent and reach of the Islamic State’s presence in Libya. …

Rape as a Weapon of Political Violence, Part 2: Where, When, and by Whom is This Tactic Used?

Africa, Civilians At Risk, Current Hotspots, Ethnic Militias, Focus On Militias, Gender-Based Violence, Inequality, Local-Level Violence, Political Stability, Unidentified Armed Groups, Vigilante Militias, Violence Against Civilians
Sexual violence (e.g. rape) is a conscious strategy frequently employed by armed groups to torture and humiliate opponents, terrify individuals, destroy societies though inciting flight from a territory, and to reaffirm aggression and brutality, specifically through an expression of domination (Bastick et al.,…

State Repression as an Obstruction to Conflict Monitoring

Africa, Conflict Monitoring, Ethnic Militias, Focus On Militias, Political Stability, Rioting And Protests, Vigilante Militias, Violence Against Civilians
Governments may purposely repress or limit the information available to NGOs, media outlets and academics to prevent state forces or policies from being portrayed in a negative light. Conflict, dissent and civil war increase the incentives for controlling information relating to political violence.…

Rape as a Weapon of Political Violence, Part 1: Trends Across Africa

Africa, Civilians At Risk, Current Hotspots, Ethnic Militias, Focus On Militias, Gender-Based Violence, Human Rights, Inequality, Local-Level Violence, Unidentified Armed Groups, Vigilante Militias, Violence Against Civilians
Sexual violence as a weapon of political conflict is a serious, present-day atrocity affecting millions of people (primarily women and girls)[1] with grave health implications, both physical and psychological (Bastick, Grimm, and Kunz, 2007; UN, 2015).…

Violence against Civilians and Al Shabaab: Tactics of Internal Security and Distabilisation

Africa, Al Shabaab, Civilians At Risk, Current Hotspots, Political Stability, Remote Violence, Rioting And Protests, Violence Against Civilians
Conflict event levels and reported fatalities fell slightly in Somalia in January. While violence overall has witnessed a gradual decline since a peak in July 2013, this has been punctuated by upswings in violence, and a concomitant increase in reported fatalities, suggesting an intensification of violent conflict (see Figure 1).…

Egypt: Developments in Political Violence Patterns Through a Comparative Analysis of the January 25th Protest Anniversaries

Africa, Analysis, Civilians At Risk, Current Hotspots, Islamic State, Remote Violence, Rioting And Protests, Violence Against Civilians
January saw heightened conflict activity in Egypt; a pattern that is evident in both 2013 and 2014. The over-whelming majority of these events can be understood as a resurgence of protests as demonstrators take to the streets during the week of the 25th January, the anniversary of the Arab Spring uprising.…