The succession of power in African states has the potential to create destabilising dynamics. Whilst it is conventional in monarchies for the children of the Head of State to succeed their parents in governing their country, this practice is mirrored across some republics.…
On Sunday, Tunisia observed the first round of presidential elections since the 2011 revolution, with a 62.9% turnout. Despite the Tunisian authorities deploying 80,000 security forces across the country to face anticipated unrest (Al Jazeera, 24 November 2014) the elections were not marred by violence, reflecting their open and inclusive nature.…
ACLED is part of a general trend in social science to use the current benefits of global online media and information to disaggregate and track social phenomena. Through monitoring reports from multiple sources in multiple countries, datasets such as ACLED can move beyond the highly aggregated binary approach of classifying political violence seen in earlier studies and breakdown conflicts into a series of spatially and temporally discrete events (Gleditsch et al.,…
The growing role of inequality has been at the forefront of many development agendas recently – for example, at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings last month – as inequality decreases between countries while continuing to increase within them. …
Tensions within the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) have increased ahead of the party Congress in December. There is an expectation that the Congress will address the question of succession, an issue that has divided the party into two camps: one backing the ascension of Vice-President Joice Mujuru and the other backing the President’s wife, Grace Mugabe (Africa Confidential, 13 November 2014).…
Natural resource extraction by mining (including oil, diamonds, copper, and cobalt) has tremendous positive economic potential for states. However, these resources can also do more harm than good if used towards ulterior motives including corruption, the unequal distribution of wealth, and to fuel violence.…
The Arab Democracy Index IV, published in November 2014, documented that “there has been a positive but slow progress towards democratic change” in the region since the Arab Spring. The results identify that Algeria progressed by 105 ADI (Arab Democracy Index) points since 2011 and ranks third behind Morocco and Jordan.…
The climate did its part to worsen the crisis in South Sudan during the rainy season, which began around May and is only just now letting up (Sudan Tribune, November 10, 2014). …
On the 17th of October, Hassan Tukur, a senior aide to President Goodluck Jonathan, announced that the Nigerian government had agreed a ceasefire with Boko Haram and secured the release of the 219 girls kidnapped from Chibok earlier this year (Al Jazeera, 18 October).…
“Authoritarian regimes…breakdown in systematically different ways, and they also affect post-transition outcomes” Geddes (1999: 6)
The recent civil disobedience activity in Burkina Faso to oust President Blaise Compaore, following an attempt to extend his 27-year long term (BBC, 30 October 2014) highlights the success of civil society movements in mobilising for regime change.…
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