Anti-Government Protests and Regime Breakdown: Conflict Dynamics in Transitional States

Africa, Boko Haram, Civilians At Risk, Current Hotspots, Focus On Militias, Political Stability, Rioting And Protests
“Authoritarian regimes…breakdown in systematically different ways, and they also affect post-transition outcomes” Geddes (1999: 6) The recent civil disobedience activity in Burkina Faso to oust President Blaise Compaore, following an attempt to extend his 27-year long term (BBC, 30 October 2014) highlights the success of civil society movements in mobilising for regime change.…

Intra-Tuareg Militant Violence and Islamist Insurgency – The Overlapping Crises of the Conflict in Mali

Africa, Analysis, Civilians At Risk, Islamic State, Islamist Violence, Rioting And Protests, Unidentified Armed Groups, Violence Against Civilians
Following the short but deadly burst of fighting in May, Mali has generally seen a decreasing trend in overall events over the past few months (which follows a broader trend in decreasing violence since this time last year), with a spike in fatalities during July (see Figure 1).…

Remote-Violence, Bombings and Conflict Part 3: Overall Trends in the Use of Improvised Explosive Devices

Africa, Focus On Militias, Improvised Explosive Devices, Remote Violence
The use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in conflict zones across has become increasingly prevalent over the past few years (Norton-Taylor, 3 July 2014). Conflict in Africa mirrors this global trend, as the number of discrete events involving IEDs grew from 9 reports in 2005 to 468 in 2013.…

The Escalation of Political Violence in Libya

Africa, Analysis, Civilians At Risk, Current Hotspots, Focus On Militias, Pro-Government Militias, Rioting And Protests, Violence Against Civilians
Since June 2014, Libya has been the fourth most volatile country in the ACLED African dataset with 534 reported conflict events. Political violence continued to escalate throughout the month of October (see Figure 1)with September recording the highest fatalities – and over double those reported since the beginning of the renewed post-civil war violence.…

Election-Related Conflict in Mozambique

Africa, Analysis, Elections, Local-Level Violence, Political Stability, Rioting And Protests
Mozambique continues to see riots and protests surrounding its elections on October 15 last month. In November 2013, Mozambique saw a marked increase in election-related riots and protests in association with its local elections involving the ruling Frente de Libertacao de Mocambique (FRELIMO) party (who have held a monopoly on ruling power since independence from Portugal in 1975) and opposition Mozambique Democratic Movement (MDM) party.…

Rebel Groups of the DRC and Attacks on Civilians

Africa, Analysis, Civilians At Risk, Current Hotspots, Ethnic Militias, Focus On Militias, LRA, Rioting And Protests, Violence Against Civilians
When looking at violence against civilians in DR-Congo from 2009-2014, rebel groups have been responsible for the majority of fatalities in these violent events (Figure 1). ACLED regards ‘rebels’ as armed agents in opposition to the established government with aims to overthrow the regime, or establish a separate state; in short, these groups have national political aims.…

Bombings, Explosives and Conflict Part 2: Weapons of the Weak? Remote Violence and the Relative Strength of Non-State Actors

Africa, Al Shabaab, Current Hotspots, Improvised Explosive Devices, Remote Violence
Does the use of remote violence indicate weakness in a non-state conflict actor? Forms of ‘remote violence’, such as roadside bombs and improvised explosive devices (IEDs), enable armed groups to attack targets that they do not have the capacity to face directly.…

Education and Political Conflict Part 2: Non-State Actor Strategies – A Focus on Boko Haram & Al Shabaab Conflict Dynamics

Al Shabaab, Boko Haram, Civilians At Risk, Education, Focus On Militias, Violence Against Civilians
In February 2012, Boko Haram members burned down three schools in the town of Maiduguri in north-eastern Nigeria. The group claimed that the attack was provoked by indiscriminate student arrests in Islamic schools by state forces (IRIN, 4 October 2013).…

Continued Conflict and Violence in South Sudan

Africa, Analysis, Civilians At Risk, Ethnic Militias, Focus On Militias, Human Rights, Unidentified Armed Groups, Violence Against Civilians
With peace talks between president Salva Kiir and SPLA/M-In Opposition leader and former vice-president Riek Machar on hiatus, conflict in South Sudan continues.  Since the ceasefire agreement between the two in May, the number of conflict events involving the government and the SPLA/M-IO has not significantly decreased. …