Political tensions are high in the Horn of Africa following the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) between Ethiopia and Somaliland, which provides sea access to landlocked Ethiopia in exchange for the recognition of the breakaway territory of Somaliland as a sovereign state.
In Kenya, low-scale violence continued to sweep across several counties, amid reports of continued activity by al-Shabaab in the regions bordering Somalia and sporadic violence by armed pastoralists.
The military juntas that rule Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger are likely to continue to shape the region’s security policies in 2024. Their rise across the Sahel ushered in a new era, leading to the withdrawal of French troops, the termination of the United Nations peacekeeping mission to Mali, and the entrenchment of Russian mercenaries.
After the national elections in December, the recently re-elected President Félix Tshisekedi will oversee multiple security threats, the drawdown of international military and peacekeeping forces, and a troubled relationship with several eastern neighbors — especially Rwanda.
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