Elections and Sectarianism in Iraq and Lebanon

Analysis, Civilians At Risk, Elections, Middle East, Political Stability, Remote Violence, Rioting And Protests, Violence Against Civilians
Since the beginning of May 2018, voters in both Lebanon and Iraq have gone to the polls in historic elections. There have been concerns that these elections could spark violence amongst the participating actors due to sectarian tensions and the divisive political landscapes in these countries — as well as pressures from the Syrian Civil War and conflict with the Islamic State (IS).…

Violence Against Civilians in Afghanistan: The Taliban and the Islamic State

Analysis, Asia, Civilians At Risk, Conflict Monitoring, Focus On Militias, Improvised Explosive Devices, Islamic State, Islamist Violence, Political Stability, Violence Against Civilians
Late last month in Kabul, an Islamic State (IS) suicide bomber detonated himself outside of a voter registration centre in the predominantly Shiite neighbourhood of Dasht-e-Barchi. At least 69 civilians were reportedly killed and another 120 were reportedly injured in the blast (Pajhwok, 23 April 2018).…

Regional Overview – Middle East 14 May 2018

Analysis, Civilians At Risk, Conflict Monitoring, Current Hotspots, Middle East, Remote Violence, Rioting And Protests, Violence Against Civilians
Both Lebanon and Iraq held elections last week, with the number of riots and protests as well as election-related violence rising, respectively, in each case. Demonstrations in Iran were focused on “Teacher’s Week” while a smaller subset of demonstrations were focused on the United States’ pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal.…

Operation Olive Branch: Patterns of Violence and Future Turkish Offensives

Analysis, Civilians At Risk, Focus On Militias, Middle East, Political Stability, Remote Violence, Rioting And Protests, Violence Against Civilians
As Turkish and allied Syrian faction violence has decreased after their March 2018 capture of Syria’s Afrin border region from Kurdish forces, questions remain about Turkey’s plans for further operations in Kurdish-controlled areas of northern Syria.…

Recent Trends in Jordanian Demonstrations

Analysis, Civilians At Risk, Human Rights, Middle East, Political Stability, Resources, Rioting And Protests, Violence Against Civilians
On 27 January 2018, the Jordanian government approved a new budget which removed subsidies on wheat and imposed a tax hike on over 100 common items. However, protests in the kingdom were less attended and less widespread than anticipated due to the same factors that limited protests during the Arab Spring.…

Rebel Infighting in Northern Syria: The War of Abolition

Analysis, Civilians At Risk, Conflict Monitoring, Focus On Militias, Middle East, Political Stability, Violence Against Civilians
Rebel infighting is not a new phenomenon in Syria’s civil war and is endemic of the weakness and disunity of the rebel and Islamist camp in the Syrian civil war. ACLED data shows a major increase in infighting over the past months in the north of the country as the “war of abolition” escalates.…