Situation Update | July 2023

Kenya: Al-Shabaab Attacks Surge Ahead of Somalia-Kenya Border Reopening

7 July 2023

Kenya at a Glance: 3-30 June 2023

VITAL TRENDS

ACLED records nearly 100 political violence events and approximately 70 fatalities in Kenya during the reporting period. Al-Shabaab activity accounted for over 17% of all political violence.
Garissa county had the highest number of fatalities, with at least 14 during the reporting period. Mandera and Lamu counties followed, with at least eight and seven, respectively. Al-Shabaab activity contributed to nearly half all reported fatalities.
The most common event type was riots, with over 60 events, followed by protests, with over 50 events. Vigilante groups were involved in more than half the riot events in Kenya during the reporting period.

Al-Shabaab Attacks Surge Ahead of Somalia-Kenya Border Reopening

Al-Shabaab’s violent activity grew significantly in June, with militants launching over a dozen attacks targeting security forces and civilians. The attacks took place at a crucial moment, as Somalia and Kenya have entered into an agreement to reopen the border points closed since 2011, and the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) begins to withdraw its troops from Somalia.¹ These developments have raised fears of a further escalation of violence in the coming months. The heightened al-Shabaab activity in Kenya comes after the launch of a counter-insurgency operation in Somalia, which has reportedly driven out militants to neighboring countries. Moreover, the recent rainfall in northern Kenya has enriched the vegetation, thus providing better hideouts for militants.² This report discusses the types of attacks and regions affected based on ACLED data. It also explores reasons for the escalation of militant activity, and concludes with a discussion of the government response.

Al-Shabaab Patterns of Violence

ACLED records 19 political violence incidents involving al-Shabaab in June – a nearly twofold increase compared to the monthly average this year (see graph below). For comparison, in June 2022, only eight political violence events involving al-Shabaab were recorded, while 11 and three were recorded in June 2021 and 2020, respectively. The current attacks have reportedly left at least 26 security officers dead and dozens injured. The majority of events are carried out through remotely activated weapons, such as improvised explosive devices (IEDs). In recent years, IEDs have become al-Shabaab’s weapon of choice, as IED materials are sourced locally and are easy to construct and transport.³ While the main targets of militant attacks have been Kenyan security forces, four instances of violence targeting civilians by al-Shabaab have also been recorded, resulting in at least eight reported fatalities.

Almost half the recorded political violence involving al-Shabaab occurred in Mandera county, which borders Gedo region in Somalia. Al-Shabaab activity was also recorded in Wajir and Garissa counties in the northeastern region of Kenya, as well as Lamu in the coastal region. In Banissa sub-county in Mandera, al-Shabaab militants launched an attack on a police base in Guba town on 19 June. Police forces repelled the attack. The following day, militants targeted a police vehicle escorting a public service vehicle in the town, reportedly killing at least two officers and a civilian. A police rescue team was deployed to the area in response but was also targeted by the militants.

In Garissa and Lamu counties, al-Shabaab used IEDs in their attack against security forces. In Garissa county – where the most reported fatalities were recorded – an IED attack by militants targeted military forces patrolling along the Garissa-Lamu border. The detonation destroyed their vehicle and reportedly killed at least eight soldiers. Following the attack, police reservists clashed with the militants in the area, incurring casualties. Police reservists are recruited from locals to bolster security by supplementing regular police in ‘hostile’ areas for their familiarity with the local terrain. They have been involved in fighting pastoralist militias in the North Rift region, and al-Shabaab militants in the counties bordering Somalia.⁴

Similar incidents were also reported in Lamu West sub-county as two subsequent IED attacks between Pandanguo and Witu reportedly resulted in over a dozen casualties among Kenyan security officers. The violence also targeted civilians in Lamu West sub-county. On 24 June, a group of over 30 men – identifying themselves as ‘Original al-Shabaab’ – attacked the villages of Salama and Juhudi near the Witu Forest and reportedly killed five men, including a student. The militants have reportedly created hideouts in the Witu Forest, where they also hold their abductees.⁵ The map below illustrates the spatial distribution of al-Shabaab’s activity in June across eastern Kenya.