Regional Overview
Europe & Central Asia
August 2023

Armenia-Azerbaijan: Political crisis resurges in the Artsakh enclave

The number of armed clashes along the Armenia-Artsakh¹The disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan. ACLED refers to the de facto state and its institutions in the ethnic Armenian majority areas of Nagorno-Karabakh as Artsakh — the name by which the de facto territory refers to itself. For more on methodology and coding decisions around de facto states, see this methodology primer.-Azerbaijan Line of Contact increased by about 25% in August following a drop in the previous month. Azerbaijani forces increasingly resorted to mortar fire throughout the month, though the number of instances continued to remain low. Ceasefire violations were mostly recorded around the Armenian-majority Artsakh enclave. Clashes along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border also increased, with Armenia’s eastern Gegharkunik region again among the most affected. Azerbaijani small-arms fire against Artsakh farmers close to the Line of Contact continued. In addition, an Azerbaijani farmer sustained injuries when his tractor hit an anti-tank mine near Artsakh.

The humanitarian situation in blockaded Artsakh continued to deteriorate, with reported shortages of bread²Rayhan Demytrie, ‘Nagorno-Karabakh: ‘People are fainting queuing up for bread,’ BBC, 31 August 2023 and claims of one death due to malnutrition.³Jam News, ‘Man dies of starvation in unrecognized NKR, blockade continues,’ 17 August 2023 Trucks carrying aid from Armenia have been stuck at the entrance to the Lachin corridor since July. France dispatched additional aid to the corridor, but to no avail. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan sent its own humanitarian convoy to the Aghdam-Askeran road, which remains blocked by Artsakh. Civilian crossings continue to be fraught, though they reportedly increased at the end of the month.⁴Eurasianet, ‘Signs of possible easing of Karabakh blockade,’ 22 August 2023 During one of the crossings facilitated by Russian peacekeepers, Azerbaijan briefly detained three youths from Artsakh, charged them with desecrating the Azerbaijani flag, and banned them from Azerbaijani territory. The detention triggered a wave of protests in both Armenia and Artsakh. On 31 August, Artsakh President Arayik Harutyunyan and State Minister Gurgen Nersisyan tendered their resignations amid the stalemate with Azerbaijan over access routes and a likely internal power struggle.⁵Ani Avetisyan, ‘Militia entered Nagorno-Karabakh parliament to ‘back President Harutyunyan,’ Open Caucasus Media, 22 August 2023

For more information, see ACLED’s Ukraine Conflict Monitor

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Cyprus and Greece: Outbreak of anti-migrant and racist violence

In August, friction between local and immigrant communities reached a tipping point in Cyprus and Greece. In Cyprus, tensions flared up between mostly Syrian migrants and local residents in the southwestern village of Chlorakas, which is home to a reportedly large number of migrant settlements.⁶Sigma Live, ‘Chloraka has 3,000 foreigners – Extreme right-wingers invaded the homes of immigrants,’ 29 August 2023 Clashes between migrants and police occurred on 11 and 14 August when the latter cut off electricity at the apartment complex hosting the migrants for unspecified reasons. Another riot occurred on 22 August when police moved to clear the apartment complex. On the following day up to 1,000 Greek Cypriot residents, encouraged by the far-right National Popular Front (ELAM) party, marched in Chlorakas to demand the removal of migrants from the area. A group of Syrian men responded by smashing house and shop windows. After a peaceful demonstration by migrants on 28 August, about 300 hooded far-right activists wielding bats and knives set out to attack migrants on the streets and at their residences. Riot police separated the crowds and made 21 arrests. Three Syrian migrants also abducted a national guard during the disturbances. In addition, on 26 August, an unidentified assailant hurled flammable substances into a mosque in Limassol, following altercations during Friday prayers outside the mosque the day before. 

Anti-immigrant and racist violence was also recorded in neighboring Greece. On 19 August, unidentified assailants stabbed to death a Pakistani man in an apparent racially motivated attack in Athens. Police arrested four Greek youths for the attack. Furthermore, recent allegations suggest migrants’ implication in the mass wildfires that raged in several parts of the country in August.⁷France24, ‘Greek wildfires spur anti-migrant sentiment,’ 25 August 2023 Around 22 August, an ethnic Albanian and two Greeks apprehended and held 13 Syrian and Pakistani irregular migrants captive near Alexandroupoli, Macedonia-Thrace, accusing them of starting wildfires. One of the abductors issued an online call for residents to round up migrants. Both perpetrators and victims were subsequently detained, the latter on suspicion of arson and illegal entry. Around 28 August, another similar incident occurred involving three likely far-right activists and four migrants in the same area.

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Russia: Air war at full throttle

On 23 August, a business jet carrying Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin, chief commander Dmitry Utkin, and other associates crashed in Russia’s Tver region, killing all 10 people on board. The crash is believed to have been caused by the detonation of an explosive planted on the plane.⁸Wall Street Journal, ‘Prigozhin Plane Crash Analysis: Early Evidence Suggests Bomb, Sabotage,’ 25 August 2023 The fatal incident ended bewilderment about Prigozhin’s relative impunity after downing several Russian military aircraft during his abortive mutiny two months earlier. (For more on the Wagner Group, see ACLED’s report, Moving Out of the Shadows: Shifts in Wagner Group Operations Around the World). 

Meanwhile, the number of suspected Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian internationally recognized territory increased by 36% from July, while the number of intercepted drones also doubled. The border Belgorod region was again among the most affected. At least four civilians died in two drone incidents there. The city of Moscow and its surroundings were also frequently targeted, prompting the closure of the airspace above the capital as well as airports on several occasions. Drone attacks on military airfields in the Novgorod and Pskov regions, further afield from the border with Ukraine, damaged one supersonic bomber and four military transporters on 19 and 30 August, respectively. Suspected Ukrainian naval drones also damaged a Russian warship in Novorossiysk, Krasnodar region.

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Ukraine: Hard slog in Russian minefields continues

Reports indicate that Ukrainian forces may have breached the first of three layers of Russian defenses with the capture of Robotyne in the Zaporizhia region in late August. The settlement lies south of Ukrainian-controlled Orikhiv in the direction of the town of Tokmak, which Russian occupation forces use as a major logistical hub. Earlier in the month, Ukrainian forces captured another settlement in the western part of the Donetsk region where Ukraine has been mounting an offensive axis toward Mariupol. Overall, armed clashes decreased in all regions, except Kharkiv, compared to the levels recorded in June and July. A Russian push toward Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region prompted the evacuation of civilians from the town and surrounding areas, although Ukrainian successes in the Zaporizhia region may draw away Russian reserves and slow down the Russian counter-attack.⁹Meduza, ‘The fate of the entire Ukrainian summer campaign is being decided between the villages of Robotyne, Verbove, and Novoprokopivka,’ 30 August 2023 Ukrainian forces are also pressing ahead in Bakhmut in the Donetsk region, and targeting Russian military and dual-use infrastructure and materiel in and near the occupied Crimean peninsula, including with homespun naval drones.¹⁰Sebastian Shukla et al, ‘Exclusive: Rare access to Ukraine’s sea drones, part of Ukraine’s fightback in the Black Sea,’ CNN, 30 July 2023

As in the previous month, Russian indiscriminate targeting led to over 120 reported civilian fatalities, of whom about 100 occurred in the frontline regions. Russian drone and missile strikes as well as debris from intercepted projectiles also led to civilian casualties in areas further away from fighting, including the westernmost Ivano-Frankivsk and Volyn regions. Russian forces also continued to bomb Ukraine’s ports on the Danube river in the Odesa region to deny grain shipments following Russia’s departure from the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Additionally, over 30 civilians died in probable Ukrainian shelling of Russian-controlled Donetsk city and surrounding areas, which included the use of cluster munitions.¹¹Conflict Intelligence Team, ‘Sitrep for Aug. 25–28, 2023 (as of 11:30 a.m.),’ 29 August 2023

For more information, see ACLED’s Ukraine Conflict Monitor

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