Regional Overview
Asia-Pacific
October 2023

Posted: 9 November 2023

Bangladesh: Anti-government demonstrations turn violent

Anti-government demonstrations led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) continued across Bangladesh in October. The demonstrations reached a crescendo in Dhaka city on 28 October, when more than 100,000 people participated in a BNP protest. Demonstrators demanded the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the formation of a neutral, caretaker government to oversee the conduct of the upcoming general elections, scheduled for January 2024.¹ The protest turned violent, with clashes between BNP activists and police resulting in a death on each side. A journalist, who was injured while covering the demonstration, also succumbed to his injuries and died. Following the demonstration, police arrested the BNP’s Secretary-General, Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir.² The BNP in turn intensified its movement, calling for a national shutdown on 29 October and a three-day transport blockade from 31 October. Subsequent clashes, which continued into November, have resulted in additional fatalities.³ Since the beginning of 2023, ACLED records over 100 demonstrations calling for the resignation of the Awami League-led government, nearly half of which have descended into clashes between opposition protesters on one side and supporters of the ruling party and the police on the other. The crackdown against protesters in October has renewed concerns over political repression ahead of the 2024 elections, which will see Prime Minister Hasina seeking re-election for the fourth consecutive term.⁴

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Indonesia: Election candidate age limits spark demonstrations

In October, ACLED records dozens of demonstrations across Indonesia concerning age restrictions for election candidates in next year’s February elections. Demonstrations were reported in at least 10 provinces. The Constitutional Court rejected a lawsuit filed by Partai Sosialis Indonesia (PSI) that proposed the age limit for presidential candidates be changed from 40 to 35 years. In doing so, though, it allowed an exception for those who have previously served or are currently serving as regional leaders.⁵ The decision — announced a few days before the registration deadline for 2024 presidential election candidates⁶ — was seen by demonstrators as favoring the candidacy of the son of President Joko Widodo (also known as Jokowi), Gibran Rakabuming Raka. Gibran, who is 36 years old, is the mayor of Surakarta and thus meets the court’s exception for regional leaders. Demonstrators accused Jokowi of nepotism, as his brother-in-law is the court’s Chief Justice.⁷ A student-led demonstration over the issue in Jakarta led to the arrest of 15 students. Following the court’s decision, Gibran was announced as the vice-presidential candidate for the Golkar party, paired with his father’s former rival Prabowo Subianto. Golkar was in power from 1966 to 1998 during the Soeharto dictatorship and has a center-right to right-wing ideology.⁸ Meanwhile, Jokowi has reached the maximum of two terms in office. In the past, rumors about Jokowi seeking a third term and a possible election postponement had led to hundreds of protests, with some turning violent.⁹

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Myanmar: Operation 1027 commences in northern Shan state

Fighting in northern Shan state escalated significantly during the last week of October following the launch of Operation 1027 on 27 October. Battle events more than doubled in northern Shan state in October compared with September. Operation 1027, named after its commencement date, is a joint offensive by the Brotherhood Alliance, comprising the Myanmar National Truth and Justice Party/Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Palaung State Liberation Front/Ta’ang National Liberation Army (PSLF/TNLA), and the United League of Arakan/Arakan Army (ULA/AA). The alliance simultaneously launched attacks against military targets, checkpoints, police stations, and toll gates in several townships, including Chinshwehaw town in Laukkaing township near the China-Myanmar border, as well as in Kyaukme, Kutkai, Kunlong, Lashio, Muse, Namhkan, Hseni, and Nawnghkio townships.¹⁰ While the PSLF/TNLA has been involved in intense fighting with the military since July, this marked the first time the Brotherhood Alliance carried out a major joint operation with anti-coup resistance forces since the military coup. The operation reportedly extended into Tigyaing township in Sagaing region where the ULA/AA and their allied forces clashed with the military. The Kachin Independence Organization/Kachin Independence Army, which has been active in the township, claimed it joined the ULA/AA and alliance forces as part of the operation.¹¹ The National Unity Government welcomed Operation 1027.¹² Fighting is expected to continue in the coming months.

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Nepal: Communal violence amid rising Hindu nationalism

Rising communal tensions in Nepal came to the fore in October in Nepalgunj town, where members of the local Hindu and Muslim communities clashed over a social media post by a Hindu boy targeting the Muslim community. At least 22 people were injured in the incident that led to the temporary closure of the busy India-Nepal border at Rupaidiha crossing.¹³ Although rare in Nepal, ACLED records five instances of communal violence since the beginning of 2023 compared with just two events in 2022. Religious places of worship — including two churches and a temple — have also been vandalized amid the rise in communal tensions this year. The latest outbreak of violence comes amid mobilization over issues typically associated with Hindu nationalism, such as demands for a ban on the slaughter of cows and the reinstatement of Nepal as a Hindu state. August and September saw elevated levels of protests on these issues after a video showing Indigenous persons consuming beef near Dharan city went viral. Hindus constitute the overwhelming majority of the population in Nepal, which was formally declared a secular state by the 2015 constitution. Until the abolition of the monarchy in 2008, Nepal was a Hindu kingdom.¹⁴

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Pakistan: Crackdown on Afghan refugees

Militant activity by the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) continued at elevated levels in October. Amid the rise in violence, the Pakistani government has blamed Afghanistan for providing a safe haven to the TTP. It has also alleged that Afghan refugees have carried out some attacks on behalf of the TTP in Pakistan.¹⁵ Under this pretense, Pakistan began a crackdown in October on undocumented Afghan nationals residing within its territory. The government issued an order on 3 October requiring all undocumented Afghan nationals to leave Pakistan by 1 November. Failing to do so would put them at risk of deportation. Officials estimate this order will impact around 1.7 million Afghan nationals currently residing in Pakistan.¹⁶ Pakistan also tightened travel restrictions, now requiring all persons crossing the Afghanistan-Pakistan border to hold valid passports and visas. Alongside this measure, security agencies increased actions targeting Afghan nationals, with over 1,000 refugees detained in Islamabad alone immediately following the issuance of the deportation order.¹⁷ The crackdown triggered at least eight protests across Pakistan. Despite the opposition, United Nations agencies reported a sharp increase in Afghans returning to Afghanistan since 3 October.¹⁸ Human rights bodies have expressed concern over the potential risks awaiting Afghan refugees upon their return to Afghanistan, many of whom had fled after the Taliban takeover amid fears of persecution.¹⁹

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Philippines: Violence in Bangsamoro during barangay elections

In the Philippines, elections were held nationwide on 30 October for positions at the barangay (or village) level, the smallest administrative division in the country. ACLED records at least 18 violent events on election day across the country, a sharp spike relative to the rest of the month. There was significant violence in some localities, particularly the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM). Reports indicate attacks – largely perpetrated by unidentified assailants – were carried out on candidates as well as voters. Prior to the elections, arson attacks on school buildings to be used as voting precincts were reported in Barira and Datu Odin Sinsuat towns in Maguindanao del Norte.²⁰ The Council for Climate and Conflict Action Asia’s Critical Events Monitoring System – Early Response Network’s security brief following the barangay elections stated that the concluded polls were the “bloodiest” in Bangsamoro in the past decade.²¹ In the BARMM, a region home to multiple active conflicts and armed groups, local government officials have frequently been the target of violence, especially around election periods (for more on the targeting of local administrators in the Philippines, see ACLED’s Special Issue on the Targeting of Local Administrators).

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Methodology

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