Beyond the Blue Wall: Exploring the Risks of Political Unrest in the 2024 Presidential Election

17 April 2024

The United States is bracing for a contentious 2024 election cycle. As experts warn of possible political violence, ACLED has relaunched the US Crisis Monitor to track what happens.

Amid the escalating fervor surrounding the 2024 presidential election, public discourse often revolves around the significance of pivotal states referred to as ‘swing states,’ ‘purple states,’ or ‘battleground states.’ While these terms are sometimes used interchangeably by political commentators, they generally denote states where the electoral outcome remains uncertain and whose voters are poised to influence the election’s outcome. The concept of swing states, though a relatively modern phenomenon popularized after the 1980s, is deeply entrenched in the electoral process, as reflected in the Electoral College framework outlined in the Constitution. Concerns over the Electoral College system persist, particularly regarding issues like the winner-takes-all allocation of electoral votes, which amplifies the influence of a handful of swing states while marginalizing others. In the context of the 2024 election, pundits have identified six swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Historically known as the ‘blue wall’ for their decades-long alignment with the Democratic Party, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin have witnessed pivotal shifts, notably in the 2016 election when Donald Trump secured victory in those states. Trump’s narrow victory in 2016 and Joe Biden’s win in 2020 by a slightly larger margin highlight the volatility of swing states and the intense focus politicians place on winning them. In 2020, mobilization spurred by the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement found fertile ground in these states. Likewise, Biden’s 2020 victory sparked claims of election fraud from former President Trump and his allies, heightening the risks that extremist movements may take arms to influence the electoral outcome in some key states. This report reviews the latest trends in demonstration activity and extremist mobilization in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, identifying whether and how these states may stoke risks of election-related violence.

Michigan

Like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Michigan was previously a stronghold for Democrats, who won the state in seven of the last 10 presidential election cycles. Biden’s ability to flip the state in 2020 helps to further illustrate why politicians spend a disproportionate amount of time and resources trying to secure votes in battleground states.

Because of the important role Michigan could very well play in the upcoming election, pundits and researchers alike have started to investigate what is most important to Michigan voters. Unsurprisingly, a recent survey suggested that the economy was the highest priority for nearly a third of Michigan voters.¹ Yet, in recent months, the popular outcry over the Israel-Gaza conflict has served as a strong driver of mobilization, surpassing labor-related issues. Pro-Palestine demonstrations have accounted for the largest share of all reported demonstrations in the state (42%) since the start of the new year (see graph below). These demonstrations have also catalyzed a strong opposition to the policies of the Biden administration, with Michigan seeing the second-highest rate of anti-Biden demonstrations recorded throughout the country since January 2024 after New York. This finding aligns with reports of ‘protest voting’ during the Michigan primary to oppose the Biden administration’s approach to the war.² This may be of particular relevance in Michigan, which has the largest per capita Arab American population in the country.³ In Dearborn, the seventh-most populous city in Michigan, the majority of the population claims Middle Eastern or North African heritage.⁴

At the same time, Michigan is well-acquainted with far-right extremism; in April 2020, armed far-right extremists stormed the capital demanding Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s resignation⁵ as they protested COVID-19 mandates. Roughly six months later, a small far-right paramilitary group, the Wolverine Watchmen⁶, captured national attention as it conspired to kidnap Whitmer. While the kidnapping plot was the most notable example of extremist activity in Michigan, such activity has continued in the following years (see map below). Michigan ranks eighth among all US states for militia-related events — which include trainings, demonstrations, and other propaganda activities — between January 2023 and March 2024. ACLED data also show that white nationalist organizing quadrupled in Michigan during 2022 and 2023, suggesting that activity could continue to increase in the coming year.

Further, reports of far-right activity at the local government level suggest that far-right groups may attempt to influence the upcoming election.⁷ According to the FBI, election workers in Michigan have received an “unusual level of threats.”⁸ In fact, the presence of multiple election deniers on the ballot and exposure to threats and harassment have triggered mass resignations among the state’s election workers.

A link between far-right factions of the Republican Party and extremist groups is apparent in Ottawa County. Tied with Kalamazoo and Ingham, Ottawa County has experienced the third-most far-right activity in Michigan since the beginning of 2023, after the state’s most-populous Wayne and Oakland counties. In 2023, a group of far-right Republicans took control of Ottawa County’s board, unseating seven traditional Republicans. The group, known as Ottawa Impact, fired the county administrator and county counsel, appointed a new officer of public health, and closed the county’s office of diversity, equity, and inclusion. The new board also adopted a new slogan for the county and promised to “recognize our nation’s Judeo-Christian heritage and celebrate America as an exceptional nation blessed by God,” a stance that leans toward Christian nationalism.⁹

In a similar development, election officials in Hillsdale County’s Adams Township, in southern Michigan, are receiving national attention after a recall vote ousted an election clerk who questioned the outcome of the 2020 election.¹⁰ Despite the recall vote, many in the township are still troubled by the potential for violence during the upcoming election. This fear has only intensified as ‘America First Republicans’ splintered off from the county’s Republican Party and appointed the former leader of Michigan’s Christian Hutaree Militia to lead the group.¹¹

Pennsylvania

The Keystone State is often considered a bellwether as the majority of candidates in the past 10 elections who won Pennsylvania also went on to win the presidency.¹² Pennsylvanians have largely supported Democrats, making Trump’s victory in 2016 a surprise to pollsters who predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the state.¹³ Trump’s victory in Pennsylvania was the first time a Republican won the state since 1988. The previous two elections were won by razor-thin margins, with Trump besting Clinton by less than 1% and Biden winning by a similarly thin margin of just over 1%. Pennsylvania’s reputation as a tight race continues, with this year’s polling suggesting that 2024 will likely be a very close race.¹⁴

A recent poll of Pennsylvanians and Michiganders finds similarities between the two states’ voters, with residents from both states saying the economy is their primary concern when considering their vote in November.¹⁵ Since 2022 labor demonstrations have accounted for a large share of demonstration activity in the state, as unions called strikes often.¹⁶ Yet, demonstrations over the Israel-Gaza conflict have increasingly served as a powerful mobilization driver in Pennsylvania (see graph below). Nearly a third of all demonstrations in the state were reportedly in support of Palestine, with Pennsylvania ranking fourth for the most demonstrations related to Israel and Palestine after New York, California, and Massachusetts. Unlike Michigan, though, no anti-Biden demonstrations were reported in Pennsylvania. Indeed, as the state is home to a substantially smaller Middle Eastern population per capita than Michigan,¹⁷ it is unclear if the Biden administration’s handling of the conflict in Gaza will have the same relevance for Pennsylvanians as it does for Michiganders.

As with Michigan, there have also been concerns regarding far-right extremism in Pennsylvania. A recent report from the Southern Poverty Law Center found that there were 72 hate and anti-government groups in Pennsylvania in 2022, up from the 30 known groups in 2021.¹⁸ Despite this jump, there has been limited militia activity in Pennsylvania, with only one reported event in 2024. Yet, the increase in the number of known groups is something to watch in the run-up to the election (see map below). In 2020, far-right actors in Pennsylvania mobilized especially in response to the BLM movement, with activity spiking between April and Election Day. Two years later, a Democratic candidate running for a state House of Representatives seat was attacked in his home in North Union Township near Uniontown, in what he believed to be election-related harassment.¹⁹ Previously, the candidate said, a threatening message was graffitied on his garage door and, in another incident, the windows of his home were broken with a brick. Moreover, Pennsylvania is also home to some of the largest numbers of people prosecuted over the 6 January Capitol riot.²⁰ With prior mobilization around election periods, the upcoming election may provide a powerful call to action for several militias, street fighting organizations, and vigilante groups that exist in the state, particularly if claims of election fraud arise.

Wisconsin

Wisconsin is the final swing state from the so-called blue wall. This point has not been lost on either Trump or Biden, and both have made recent visits to the state. As with both Michigan and Pennsylvania, the previous two elections were very close in Wisconsin. Trump’s margin of victory was approximately 1% in 2016, and Biden also won with less than a 1% margin in 2020. One resounding difference between Wisconsin and its blue wall counterparts is the disproportionate share of independent voters. A recent Pew survey found that 16% of Wisconsinites identify as independent, with the remaining evenly split between Republican and Democratic Party affiliation.²¹ Independent voters will likely be an important voting bloc, which helps explain why candidates may make frequent stops to the state. In addition to the importance of independent voters, the white working class will likely play an important role. In the 2016 elections, increased turnout among white non-college-educated voters in Wisconsin seemingly played a decisive role in turning the state for Trump.²²

While the economy is undoubtedly of high importance for Wisconsin voters, a recent study found that abortion remains a key issue.²³ Demonstration activity is aligned with public opinion. ACLED data suggest that support for abortion rights accounts for a disproportionate share of all demonstrations recorded in the state, with Wisconsin ranking sixth nationwide for pro-abortion rights demonstrations since January 2023 (see graph below). Similar to Michigan and Pennsylvania, pro-Palestine demonstrations made up a high proportion of demonstrations in Wisconsin (38%) in the first quarter of 2024, suggesting that Biden may need to work to win over many who are unhappy with the administration’s handling of the Israel-Gaza conflict.

While Wisconsin does not have a strong presence of far-right groups (see map below), the Southern Poverty Law Center has identified several hate and anti-government groups in the state in 2022.²⁴ However, there has been a steady increase in the activity of white nationalist groups in Wisconsin over the past four years. A notable example is the Blood Tribe, a neo-Nazi group founded in 2020, whose Wisconsin chapter was especially active in the second half of 2023, ACLED data show. Overall, 2023 was a record-high year for far-right groups in the state.

In addition to these trends, watchdogs have also voiced concern about the upcoming election in Wisconsin. Cities across the state have expanded laws aimed at protecting election officials during the election and beyond, in large part due to reporting of drastic increases in threats and harassment to poll workers.²⁵ Further, concern about the integrity of elections has increased as the previous election administrator, Meagan Wolfe, was forced out of office by the Republican-run state Senate.²⁶

Round Up

Supreme Court rules Trump can remain on the ballot

On 4 March 2024, the US Supreme Court issued a unanimous ruling that Trump could remain on the presidential primary ballot in Colorado.²⁷ Colorado’s Supreme Court removed Trump from the ballot in December 2023, citing a clause in the Constitution dating from the US Civil War that aimed to prevent former Confederates from taking power.²⁸ Maine and Illinois had also removed Trump from their respective primary ballots, citing the same constitutional clause. All three states reinstated the former president following the US Supreme Court’s ruling.²⁹ The Court did not rule on whether Trump had participated in an insurrection but instead expressed concerns about a patchwork of state rulings over candidate ineligibility.³⁰

Biden and Trump clinch nominations following Super Tuesday

The Super Tuesday elections held across 16 states on 5 March gave both President Biden and former President Trump the majorities they needed to clinch their respective parties’ nominations for president.³¹ In the 15 states that held Republican primaries and caucuses, Trump beat his last remaining rival, Nikki Haley, in all but Vermont. Haley dropped out of the race the next day.³²

Meanwhile, President Biden won every state that held Super Tuesday elections without serious opposition from any other candidate. However, nearly one-fifth of Democratic voters — roughly 45,000 people — in Minnesota voted for ‘uncommitted’ in an apparent protest vote over his handling of the Israel-Gaza conflict.³³ This follows a similar result last month in Michigan. Minnesota has seen one of the highest rates of pro-Palestine demonstrations in the US since the conflict reignited in October 2023, and Hennepin and Ramsey counties — which encompass the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area — are among the most active counties for pro-Palestine demonstrations in the country.