Sudan: The RSF marches on Sennar and West Kordofan

The RSF marches on Sennar and West Kordofan

Amid ongoing fighting in the North Darfur capital of El Fasher, the RSF notched up military successes in Sennar and West Kordofan states in early July. The RSF advanced from al-Jazirah toward Sennar and took control of most major cities, except Sennar city, within weeks of its advance in the state. The fall of Sennar cannot be overstated: It borders four other states, in addition to sharing a border with South Sudan and Ethiopia, and contributes significantly to Sudan’s agricultural production. Further west, the RSF took control of El Fula, the capital of West Kordofan, and the strategic town of al-Meiram following mediation by the Misseriya native administration, which persuaded the SAF to withdraw from its bases after a brief clash with the RSF. By controlling large swaths of Sennar state and al-Meiram town in West Kordofan, the RSF now has multiple routes to South Sudan.

Sennar falls to the RSF

Throughout June and early July, the RSF clashed with the SAF and its allies in Sennar, ultimately leading to its near-total control of the state. The RSF’s advances began in Jabal Moya, a mountain range situated at the border between al-Jazirah and Sennar states, whose position gives a strategic advantage to those who control it. Thus, the RSF’s control of Jabal Moya was the tipping point of the SAF’s collapse in Sennar state.

In the last week of June, clashes intensified in the Sennar Sugar Factory, Jabal Moya area, Sennar city, and Wad al-Hadad (see map below). While the SAF and its allies managed to repel the RSF attacks on Sennar city, the RSF overtook Jabal Moya mountain on 24 June. In response, the SAF launched heavy airstrikes that forced the RSF troops to disperse from Jabal Moya temporarily. Nevertheless, the SAF failed to regain control over Jabal Moya, even as it had the opportunity to capitalize on the RSF troops’ disorganization. 

The fall of Jabal Moya to the RSF paved the way for the RSF to wage multiple attacks on Sennar. On 25 June, the SAF deployed reinforcements from the capital Sinja to Sennar city in an effort to defend the city and regain control over the mountain. However, on 29 June, the RSF — led by Abu Aqlah Keikel, the commander who led the offensive on al-Jazirah state that overtook it from the SAF within a week — unexpectedly advanced from Jabal Moya and attacked Sinja city, south of Sennar city. They overtook the 17th Infantry Division headquarters in the northeastern neighborhoods of Sinja without much resistance, forcing the remaining SAF troops to withdraw to the city’s southern outskirts to the 67th Infantry Brigade. A few days later, on 1 July, the SAF withdrew from its remaining bases in the city — the 67th Infantry Brigade and 165th Armored Brigade — allowing the RSF to overtake it. The withdrawal of the SAF troops led the public to question yet again the SAF’s ability to resist the advances of the RSF. A similar withdrawal of the SAF from Wad Madani, the capital city of al-Jazirah, in December 2023 prompted the city’s fall to the RSF.

Following the fall of Sinja, the SAF faced a series of setbacks in Sennar state. The SAF withdrew from multiple bases, and the RSF gained control over the SAF bases in al-Mazmoum, al-Suki, Wad al-Nile, and Dinder. Dinder was the site of intense clashes as the two parties battled for control of the city. Dinder initially fell to the RSF on 1 July and was briefly recaptured by the SAF on 3 July before ultimately falling to the RSF two days later. The loss of Dinder forced the SAF and its allies to withdraw to Gedaref state. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reports that about 136,000 civilians fled Sennar state from 24 June to 4 July.¹OCHA, ‘Sudan: Conflict in Sinja, Sennar State – Flash Update No. 02,’ 4 July 2024 The majority of these civilians fled to SAF-controlled areas in Gedaref and Blue Nile states, as the RSF looted civilians’ properties in multiple villages around Sinja.²Sudan Tribune, ‘More than 136,000 people flee fighting in Sennar state: UN,’ 4 July 2024 

The RSF now has a secure route through al-Mazmoum city to South Sudan from which it allegedly gets fuel, ammunition, and weapons supplies.³Hager Ali, ‘The War in Sudan: How Weapons and Networks Shattered a Power Struggle,’ German Institute for Global and Area Studies, 2024 The RSF’s next advances could be north of Dinder city and south from al-Jazirah state into east of Sennar city to complete the siege on Sennar city from all directions and capture the most defended city in the state — the last urban stronghold that the SAF controls in the state. If the RSF seizes the whole of Sennar, then White Nile and Blue Nile states will also be isolated from other SAF-controlled areas. Thus, the RSF could open multiple frontlines in White Nile and Gedaref or advance south toward Blue Nile.

The RSF moves on to capture West Kordofan’s capital

The capture of El Fula and al-Meiram in West Kordofan were two other major successes for the RSF. El Fula is the state capital of West Kordofan, and al-Meiram is an important border down approximately 60 kilometers north of the border with South Sudan. The escalation in these cities was sudden and decisive. Within the span of a day, both El Fula and al-Meiram fell into RSF control after brief but intense clashes likely due to mediation by the Misseriya ethnic group’s native administration in the area. West Kordofan state had largely dodged heavy clashes between the SAF and the RSF, barring the ongoing conflict in Babanusa city, due to the native administration’s mediation in November 2023. 

When the RSF besieged El Fula and al-Meiram on 19 June and 3 July, respectively, the Misseriya native administration was unable to convince the SAF to withdraw from its bases and, at the same time, could not stop the RSF from attacking these cities. The administration had hoped to avoid confrontation between the conflicting parties in these cities through mediation. Despite these efforts, the RSF commenced its offensive on 20 June. Subsequently, the SAF withdrew from El Fula city to al-Udayyah, leading the RSF troops to control the city. In al-Meiram, the SAF managed to repel the initial RSF offensive on 3 July, but despite its initial success, the SAF decided to withdraw unilaterally from al-Meiram and go to South Sudan on 3 July. 

While these two cities fell to the RSF, the SAF mounted its defenses in Babanusa and, in fact, made small gains and mobilized more troops in al-Nuhud. Since January, the clashes in West Kordofan have been primarily concentrated in Babanusa, where the RSF attempted to overrun the SAF 22nd Infantry Division since February. The SAF successfully defended this base despite the RSF siege, which lasted for months and saw the RSF control most neighborhoods around the base. On 9 June, the SAF expanded its operations outside the base and regained control over several neighborhoods, including two markets in the city. Meanwhile, on 29 June, al-Nuhud witnessed a significant mobilization of more than 10,000 people from the SAF, Central Reserve Police, Darfur Joint Forces, and Popular Resistance to secure the western parts of the state, triggered by the looming threat of an RSF attack.⁴Al Mashhad Al Sudani, ‘Al-Nuhud city mobilizes more than 10 thousand fighters,’ 30 June 2024

Although the RSF maintained a presence in various locations across West Kordofan prior to the latest offensive, the capture of El Fula city marked a significant shift. It became the first city in the state to fall under the RSF’s control, and al-Meiram to the south soon followed. The RSF’s strategy appears to establish civil administrations in the areas it controls, depriving the local government of real powers and instead empowering loyalists. By controlling al-Meiram, the RSF has secured a vital supply route with South Sudan, further solidifying its strategic position.