Situation Update | July 2024

Anti-tax demonstrations spread nationwide and highlight Kenya’s structural challenges

19 July 2024

Kenya at a Glance: 1 June to 12 July 2024

VITAL TRENDS

From 1 June to 12 July 2024, ACLED records 96 political violence events and 82 reported fatalities in Kenya. Most events took place in Nairobi, which saw 21 political violence events linked with anti-tax demonstrations.
Turkana and Mandera counties had the highest number of reported fatalities, with at least 13 reported in Turkana and at least 11 reported in Mandera. The majority of fatalities in Turkana were linked to an armed clash in Kakuma refugee camp between Nuer refugees and Anyuak refugees.
The most common event types during the reporting period were riots, with 52 recorded events, followed by violence against civilians, with 26 recorded events. The majority of riots were in Nairobi, with eight recorded events.

Infographic - Kenya situation update - July 2024

Anti-tax demonstrations spread nationwide and highlight Kenya’s structural challenges

Since 18 June, Kenya has been engulfed in deadly unrest. Thousands of predominantly young demonstrators, self-identifying as Generation Z, took to the streets — initially to protest the controversial 2024 Finance Bill, and then broadening their aims to demand that the government address inequality, corruption, and elite politics. The 25 June storming of Kenya’s national parliament building in Nairobi was a violent peak of the public outcry, as demonstrators burned vehicles in front of the Supreme Court and set the governor’s office on fire. It also brought to the fore the issue of excessive force in response to the demonstrations, as the Kenyan police fired live bullets to disperse the crowd at the parliament building, killing more than a dozen protesters and injuring hundreds. Rights groups have also accused security forces of carrying extrajudicial arrests and enforced disappearances of activists.¹ ACLED data indicate this movement has widespread support, and it has reached more counties in Kenya than past anti-tax protests. Moreover, violence has featured more heavily in the demonstrations both as a factor of new tactics from the demonstrators and the militarized response by police.

The movement spreads across Kenya

The anti-tax protests began in mid-June in Nairobi before expanding to 43 of Kenya’s 47 counties. The government has made some efforts to meet the movement’s demands: After demonstrators stormed the national parliament building in Nairobi, President William Ruto announced he would not sign the 2024 Finance Bill, which included new taxes on bread, diapers, and smartphones.² Ruto also vowed to cut spending on public officials’ benefits and dozens of redundant state enterprises.³ However, these promises did not put an end to the demonstration movement. Protesters across Kenya have remained in the streets to demand that President Ruto resign and to express broader dissatisfaction with corruption and the cost of living.⁴ The large participation of Gen Z in the protests is not the only unique factor of this movement. The demonstrations’ largely nonpartisan character is also significant, as it comes in contrast to last summer’s anti-tax bill protests organized by the Azimio la Umoja opposition coalition.⁵ Unlike the 2023 tax-related protests, the Gen Z movement expanded beyond the opposition coalition’s strongholds in western Kenya into counties like Kirinyaga, Kiambu, and Meru that voted for Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party in 2022 (see map below). Furthermore, some demonstrators have criticized Azimio leader Raila Odinga for proposing a dialogue between demonstrators and Ruto, reflecting a broader opposition to Kenya’s political elite.⁶

While these demonstrations have affected much of the country, the absence of the movement from certain areas illustrates the diversity of Kenyan politics and society. In particular, Tharaka Nithi, Elgeyo-Marakwet, Wajir, and Mandera are the four counties without recorded demonstrations during this anti-tax wave. Tharaka Nithi and Elgeyo Marakwet are Kenya’s sixth- and seventh-least populated counties, respectively, and ACLED records only 46 and 37 protest events in the two counties since data collection began in 1997.⁷ While no single reason may explain the relative calm in these small counties, the German Institute of Development and Sustainability has highlighted the essential link between urbanization and today’s protests over the cost of living and poor service provision.⁸ Notably, Tharaka Nithi and Elgeyo Marakwet have some of the lowest urbanization rates in Kenya, with Tharaki Nithi tied for the lowest urbanization of any county.⁹ Conversely, ACLED records that Kenya’s seven largest cities account for 57 of the 215 anti-tax demonstrations since 18 June, approximately one-fourth of all events.

Meanwhile, in Kenya’s expansive northeast, Wajir and Mandera are two of Kenya’s three counties bordering Somalia, where distinct circumstances often localize the region’s politics. These two counties also did not participate in the 2023 demonstrations. For years, Wajir and Mandera have been at the epicenter of the al-Shabaab insurgency’s expansion over the border from Somalia (alongside Garissa and Lamu counties, which each experienced just one anti-tax demonstration). The Kenyan political establishment has historically marginalized the northeast. Both the British and subsequent Kenyan administrations preferred to invest in the fertile Rift Valley over the arid and semi-arid northeastern area while also discriminating against ethnic Somalis for perceived secessionism in favor of joining neighboring Somalia.¹⁰ Communities in the northeastern area were further targeted in the Kenyan government’s crackdown following al-Shabaab’s high-profile attacks in Kenya in the early 2010s.¹¹ The northeastern area also has its own political movements and institutions that are often detached from the political wrangling in western and central Kenya, especially after governance and financial control were devolved to the county administrations in 2013.¹²

The Gen Z movement grapples with riots and police violence

The storming and burning of the parliament on 25 June marked a turning point in the violence, as at least 13 demonstrators and bystanders were killed and another 120 people suffered bullet wounds. On that day alone, anti-tax demonstrators separately attempted to storm the Githurai Mwiki police station in Nairobi and the state house in Mombasa, burned down a hotel housing a parliamentarian’s office in Naivasha in Nakuru county, attempted to storm parliamentarians’ homes in Molo and Nakuru in the same county, and attacked parliamentarian-owned businesses in Eldoret in Uasin Gishu county and Nyeri, Naro Moru, and Karatina in Nyeri county. While digital organizing has been key to enabling the Gen Z protests, the targeting of public officials has also been facilitated by the widespread sharing of officials’ personal information on social media in a trend called tuwasalimie, or “let us greet them.”¹³ Thus, despite the grassroots organizers’ emphasis on peaceful, well-organized protest, some protests have descended into rioting and looting. Between 18 June to 12 July, there were 97 tax-related riots, including at least 20 events that involved looting, including of supermarkets, restaurants, and shops. Compared to the previous tax-related riots in 2023, there was a 28% increase in events (see graph below). As the movement is decentralized and without recognized leaders, there are few avenues for activists to ensure the demonstrations remain peaceful.¹⁴

Meanwhile, Kenya’s police continue to respond with tear gas, batons, and live bullets. Among the 215 tax-related demonstrations since 18 June, ACLED records at least 42 demonstrators and bystanders killed and hundreds of demonstrators, bystanders, and police injured. Additionally, Kenya’s security apparatus has initiated more targeted methods of cracking down on protests. The National Intelligence Service and Directorate of Criminal Investigations allegedly formed a covert unit to abduct protest organizers and human rights defenders.¹⁵ Beginning when unknown perpetrators abducted and interrogated a rights defender on 20 June, ACLED records at least 13 abduction events involving doctors, media influencers, and rights defenders. While the perpetrators’ motives are often unknown, the Police Reforms Working Group Kenya (PRWG-K) coalition reported at least 12 activists were kidnapped before the parliament storming on 25 June and The New York Times reported dozens were kidnapped since the demonstrations began, though most were later released.¹⁶