Regional Overview
Asia-Pacific
August 2024

Posted: 6 September 2024

In this Regional Overview

Bangladesh: Interim government forms following deadly demonstrations
Indonesia: Parliament’s attempt to revise regional election laws sparks nationwide protests
Myanmar: Armed groups increasingly target Rohingya in northern Rakhine state
Pakistan: Separatist violence rises in Balochistan province
Papua New Guinea: Politically motivated rioting breaks out in East Sepik
South China Sea: The Philippines and China face off in airspace after a vessel collision

Bangladesh: Interim government forms following deadly demonstrations

Tensions between demonstrators — who demanded the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina — and the government came to a head on 4 August. The Anti-Discrimination Student Movement, a key organizer of the demonstrations, called upon demonstrators to exercise civil disobedience against the government. For its part, Hasina’s party, the Awami League (AL), announced simultaneous nationwide gatherings of its supporters. These maneuvers triggered an escalation of deadly clashes between demonstrators, AL supporters, and police that left over 100 people dead. The violence led to the Anti-discrimination Students Movement’s ‘Long March to Dhaka’ in defiance of a nationwide curfew to put pressure on Hasina to resign. As thousands gathered near the Prime Minister’s residence, Hasina resigned and fled to India by helicopter.¹

Violence erupted across the country following the news of her resignation. Mobs attacked local AL leaders, set ablaze establishments associated with the AL, stormed the prime minister’s official residence, and targeted members of the minority Hindu community over their presumed links to the secular AL.² Over 200 people were reportedly killed in the violence on 5 August alone, the deadliest day since the protests began. Attacks against Hindus had a regional impact, triggering protests and attacks against Muslims in Hindu-majority India and Nepal. In total, ACLED records over 500 reported fatalities in the demonstrations and subsequent violence across July and August; other sources place the figure higher, at around 700.³

Although violence tapered out toward the end of the month, ACLED continues to record an above-average number of weekly demonstrations in Bangladesh. As the interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus took over on 8 August,⁴ different groups mobilized to voice demands related to a variety of issues, including economic grievances and justice and accountability for human rights violations committed during the AL incumbency. The interim government introduced a slew of measures in an attempt to restore political stability, including releasing political prisoners detained during the demonstrations and signing the United Nations Convention for the Protection of All Persons from Enforced Disappearances.⁵

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Indonesia: Parliament’s attempt to revise regional election laws sparks nationwide protests

Thousands of Indonesians, including students and activists, took to the streets in several major cities to protest against the parliament’s attempt to change electoral eligibility rules for regional elections on 22 August. On 20 August, the Constitutional Court ruled that political parties would no longer need at least 20% representation in their regional assemblies to nominate a candidate in regional elections, effectively allowing smaller parties to participate. The court also ordered that candidates be at least 30 years old at the time of registration. However, the outgoing parliament tabled a motion to reverse both changes. This move would block candidates from smaller parties and, specifically, allow President Joko Widodo’s 29-year-old son to run for regional head in Kaesang Pangarep. ACLED records over 100 demonstration events in Indonesia on 22 and 23 August, with one-fifth turning violent after police intervened with force. Following the demonstrations, the parliament canceled its plan to override the Constitutional Court’s decisions.⁶ Widodo’s other son, Vice President-elect Gibran Rakabuming, faced a similar controversy ahead of February’s presidential elections. The regional election is scheduled for November 2024.

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Myanmar: Armed groups increasingly target Rohingya in northern Rakhine state

Rohingya civilians are again suffering mass killing, forced displacement, and abduction by armed groups as conflict continues and spreads throughout northern Rakhine state. The United League of Arakan/Arakan Army (ULA/AA), a prominent ethnic armed resistance group that is also a member of the Brotherhood Alliance, attempted to seize the last remaining border guard battalion near Maungdaw town, which has a majority Rohingya population. During this confrontation, the ULA/AA fought a combined force of the Myanmar military and Rohingya armed groups, including the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), Rohingya Solidarity Organization (RSO), Arakan Rohingya Army (ARA) and other forcibly conscripted militants. About 200 Rohingya civilians, including women and children, were reportedly killed in a drone and mortar attack on 5 August while waiting to cross the Naf River to Bangladesh. No group has taken responsibility.

Rohingya civilians regularly suffer indiscriminate shelling, sexual violence, arson attacks, and killings. Reporting of these crimes is limited due to restricted media access and internet communication blackouts.⁷ Thousands of Rohingya have been abducted and forcibly conscripted from Maungdaw and refugee camps in Bangladesh by the military since February. ACLED data show Maungdaw had the highest reported fatalities resulting from violent incidents that targeted civilians in Rakhine state in August. Civilian targeting incidents resulted in a more than 600% increase in reported fatalities compared to July. 25 August marks the seventh anniversary of what the military calls clearance operations in northern Rakhine. The campaign, operated by the Myanmar army, caused thousands of deaths among the Rohingya and the exodus of over 700,000 people to Bangladesh.⁸ This month’s renewed atrocities against the Rohingya community bolstered calls for an independent investigation, humanitarian assistance, and regional stability.⁹

Correction: An earlier version of this section mistakenly referred to the Three Brotherhood Alliance. The correct name is the Brotherhood Alliance.

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Pakistan: Separatist violence rises in Balochistan province

Political violence in Pakistan’s Balochistan province doubled in August compared to the month prior, with at least 156 reported fatalities, marking it the deadliest month in Balochistan in nearly six years. Most events involved the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and the Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF). These two armed groups are waging a separatist campaign against the national government, whom they accuse of exploiting Balochistan’s natural resources and oppressing the local population.¹⁰ On 12 August, Panjgur district’s deputy commissioner was killed after suspected BLA militants ambushed his vehicle. Baloch separatists then intensified attacks on military and government establishments on 14 August, Pakistan’s Independence Day. Violence again peaked toward the end of the month, around the 26 August anniversary of the death of Baloch nationalist leader Nawab Akbar Bugti. Baloch separatists took control of major highways and carried out a series of attacks on 25 and 26 August, resulting in over 70 reported fatalities. In the deadliest attack, BLA militants blocked a highway connecting Balochistan and Punjab provinces in the Rarasham area and executed 23 passengers after checking their IDs, which showed they are of Punjabi origin. The BLA and BLF frequently target perceived outsiders involved in infrastructure projects, including ethnic Punjabis and Chinese laborers working on projects linked to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a part of the Belt and Road Initiative.¹¹ The attacks coincided with a visit from a top Chinese general. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stated that some of the August attacks were aimed at disrupting the CPEC.¹²

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Papua New Guinea: Politically motivated rioting breaks out in East Sepik

An incident between supporters of current and former members of parliament has reportedly triggered a mass riot in Maprik, East Sepik province, leading to property destruction and wounded civilians.¹³ On 5 August, two unidentified individuals set fire to vehicles owned by the former Maprik MP, John Simon, at his brother’s residence in Malba.¹⁴ This led to a retaliatory attack by people believed to be from Simon’s brother’s village in Maprik the next day. Local police tried to intervene but retreated after being attacked with wire catapults. Bystanders to the attack burned an office of the Pangu political party, a shop, and vehicles owned by the former MP. Police arrested over 170 suspects.¹⁵ The violence came two months after the May by-election in Maprik. The election resulted in the former MP — who is supported by the Pangu party — losing his seat to the current MP, a member of the People’s First Party.¹⁶ While the possible link to the by-election has not been confirmed, the country’s elections are notoriously violent. During the last general elections, ACLED recorded at least 65 fatalities in July and August 2022. More recently, in July, East Sepik province experienced a wave of violence, with at least 26 people killed in an attack perpetrated by gang members (for more on the July attack, see ACLED’s Regional Overview for July 2024).

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South China Sea: The Philippines and China face off in airspace after a vessel collision

Tensions flared last month in a longstanding territorial dispute between the Philippines and China over islands in the South China Sea. On 19 August, Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) vessels collided with Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) vessels near Escoda Shoal (Sabina Shoal). The Philippine vessels, which suffered structural damage, were on a resupply mission to PCG outposts in the disputed Spratly Islands.¹⁷ On 25 August, CCG vessels then rammed a ship used by the Philippines Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) en route to resupply Filipino fishermen with food and diesel.¹⁸ Earlier in August, Manila and Beijing’s standoff took an unprecedented turn to the airspace over the disputed area. A Chinese Air Force aircraft dropped flares in the path of Philippine Air Force patrols near Scarborough Shoal on 8 August.¹⁹ China also shot flares twice near Philippine BFAR patrol aircraft on 19 and 22 August.²⁰ The Philippines and China traded condemnations over the incidents. Meanwhile, the United States reaffirmed its commitment to its 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty with the Philippines, which requires the US and the Philippines to come to each other’s aid in the event of an armed attack.²¹ However, US and Philippine defense officials did not characterize China’s actions as an armed attack.²² The Philippines has been shoring up alliances amid the escalating dispute with China, building ties with countries such as Australia, Japan, and France, and most recently announcing closer military cooperation with Vietnam.²³ While collisions are rare, ACLED records 13 encounters between the CCG and PCG over the past 18 months.

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Methodology

See the Codebook and the User Guide for an overview of ACLED’s core methodology. For additional documentation, check the Knowledge Base. Region-specific methodology briefs can be accessed below.

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