Regional Overview
Europe, Caucasus, and Central Asia
August 2024

Posted: 6 September 2024

In this Regional Overview

Armenia-Azerbaijan: Two sides inch closer to a peace deal despite persisting tensions along the border
Russia: Ukraine takes war back to Russia
Serbia: Government takes on protests against a lithium mining project
Ukraine: Russia advances toward Pokrovsk and resumes attacks on the Ukrainian power grid
United Kingdom: Anti-racist pushback on anti-migrant riots

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Armenia-Azerbaijan: Two sides inch closer to a peace deal despite persisting tensions along the border

Azerbaijan issued six allegations of Armenian forces targeting its positions along the Armenian-Azerbaijani borders, of which five concerned the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhchivan. In addition, Azerbaijani forces intercepted an Armenian reconnaissance drone flying over Azerbaijani positions set up following Azerbaijan’s incursion into Armenia’s Syunik region in September 2022. In the meantime, Azerbaijani press spun allegations of shipments of weapons and troops to Armenia, prompting a rebuttal from the United States ambassador in Baku.¹

Increased tensions along the borders contrasted with fitful progress on a peace treaty and border delimitation. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan confirmed that the issue of the land link to Nakhchivan via Armenia (also known as the Zangezur corridor) had been scrapped from the draft peace agreement,² though Russia claims that the re-opening of transport communications is still a prerequisite for normalization of relations.³Azerbaijan, backed by Turkey, continues to insist that Armenia amend its constitution, which cites the country’s independence declaration, which, in turn, mentions the former Artsakh.⁴ Meanwhile, the Armenian-Azerbaijani border delimitation commission agreed on its regulation in late August after missing an earlier 1 July deadline.⁵

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Russia: Ukraine takes war back to Russia

On 6 August, Ukrainian armed forces launched an incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, meeting little resistance from border guards and conscripts. Unlike previous raids into Russia manned by Russian volunteer units, regular Ukrainian troops were deployed. By 20 August, Ukraine claimed control of over 1,263 square kilometers of territory and over 90 settlements, including the town of Sudzha, near the border with Ukraine, and the nearby metering station on the last operational Russian gas pipeline running through Ukraine.⁶ Following rapid advances, Ukrainian forces appear to be digging in and attempt to isolate a grouping of Russian forces in a pocket of the border area separated from the rest of the region by the Seym river.⁷ The incursion echoes Russia’s May offensive in and around Vovchansk in the northern Kharkiv region, during which Russian forces managed to pin down around 10 Ukrainian brigades. The Ukrainian forces may be seeking to relieve pressure on the Ukrainian troops losing ground in the Donetsk region.⁸ Regardless of the outcome of the incursion, it exposed the lack of reserves on the Russian side to protect the 500-kilometer-long border, hitherto affected mostly by remote violence after Russian withdrawals from north and northeastern Ukraine in the spring and autumn of 2022. While Ukrainian drone strikes and shelling mostly affect the Belgorod region, ACLED records a more than 10 times increase in the number of strikes in the Kursk region between May and August, compared with the average of the previous 12 months.

The Russian government’s response to the incursion appeared late and attempted to play down the threat for domestic audiences while talking up the threat to the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant. Initially accusing Ukraine of a “provocation,” on 10 August it announced a counter-terrorist operation in the Kursk, Bryansk, and Belgorod regions — a designation previously reserved for insurgencies in the North Caucasus and the Wagner mutiny in June 2023.⁹ While reports of the lack of humanitarian and evacuation assistance in Kursk snowballed, regional and federal authorities emphasized the US$115 one-off payments to the over 120,000 displaced people in the Kursk region.¹⁰ Civilian evacuations also took place in border areas of the Belgorod region. Meanwhile, Russian sources amplified the threat posed by the incursion to the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant, with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin alleging a Ukrainian drone strike attempt near the facility on 22 August.¹¹ The International Atomic Energy Agency said it saw the impact site and drone remnants but avoided attributing the strikes to either side, emphasizing that the plant lacks protection against projectiles.¹²

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Serbia: Government takes on protests against a lithium mining project

Serbia’s government responded to escalating environmental protests in August with a mix of repression and conspiracy theories. The number of demonstrations against a lithium mining project more than doubled in August after resuming in July in response to the government’s reinstatement of operator Rio Tinto’s license and the signing of a memorandum of understanding with the European Union on exploring sustainable raw materials to power electric vehicles.¹³ Previous projects to allow lithium mining were scrapped after mass protests in 2022. Environmental organizations believe the excavation of lithium will have devastating effects on water and land and fear it will displace people living in the mostly agricultural area.¹⁴ In August, ACLED records more than 40 peaceful protests across the country. On 10 August, tens of thousands of demonstrators marched in the capital city of Belgrade, blocking streets, highways, and railroads.

Demonstrators were met with various tactics to stop them. Three people were arrested during the 10 August protest in Belgrade, prompting further demonstrations. A far-right group staged a counter-demonstration. In addition, several people were injured when a car rammed into the crowd blocking the highway. In the following days, Serbian authorities detained and questioned dozens of activists, accusing them of a coup plot.¹⁵ An anonymous website in support of lithium mining published a “registry of eco-terrorists,” with an option for citizens to report those they believe are radical environmentalists.¹⁶ Furthermore, President Aleksandar Vučić stated that Russian intelligence had warned him about “Western powers” planning a coup during the protests,¹⁷ despite the European Union being the biggest international proponent of lithium mining in Serbia. More protests against the project have been announced for September.

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Ukraine: Russia advances toward Pokrovsk and resumes attacks on the Ukrainian power grid

Despite Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, the Russian assault on the Donetsk region accelerated, primarily focusing on the Ukrainian forces’ key logistical hub of Pokrovsk. Russia captured 25 closely-knit villages in the town’s environs — the quickest pace of occupation since May, which was marked by Russia’s rapid gains during its re-invasion of the northern Kharkiv region. In the northern Donetsk region, Russian forces closed in on Toretsk but appeared to be stalling in Chasiv Yar. Fighting intensified in the area of Lyman in the Donetsk region and Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region. As likely retaliation to the Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region, Ukraine’s Sumy region across the border came under sustained Russian aerial bombardment, prompting evacuations and the imposition of no-go zones.¹⁸

Meanwhile, Russia resumed large-scale attacks on Ukrainian energy and gas infrastructure after a relative lull since 20 June, possibly to allow for talks seeking to stop Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s oil infrastructure.¹⁹ The combined strike on 26 August was the largest attack recorded since the beginning of the Russian invasion. It affected 15 Ukrainian regions, including Kyiv and the westernmost regions, resulting in blackouts and water supply disruptions across the country. Ukrainian forces largely fended off the attack, losing one of the recently acquired F-16 fighter jets in the process.²⁰

For more information, see the ACLED Ukraine Conflict Monitor

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United Kingdom: Anti-racist pushback on anti-migrant riots

Far-right anti-immigration riots continued across the United Kingdom in early August, marking the largest wave of social unrest in the country since riots triggered by the police shooting of a Black man in London in 2011.²¹ After the initial outbreak of rioting in the wake of a stabbing rampage in Southport in July, the riots expanded to other parts of the country, as far-right mobs targeted mosques, asylum seekers’ accommodation centers, and police stations. During the weekend of 3 to 4 August, often violent, far-right demonstrations occurred across England and Northern Ireland, especially in the north and northwest and Belfast. Participants clashed with police and counter-demonstrators mobilized by communities and the Stand Up To Racism movement. Police reported dozens of injuries among its forces in Belfast and Rotherham.²² There were also reports of several racist attacks on ethnic minorities in Liverpool, Manchester, Bristol, and Belfast, as well as instances of looting.

After the weekend, riots continued in Belfast, Birmingham, Darlington, and Plymouth. Far-right groups also published a list of addresses of organizations helping asylum seekers across England, pointing to further targets. Over 100 far-right and 30 counter-protests were planned across the country on 7 August, prompting police mobilization.²³ Few far-right activists turned out, however. In contrast, thousands of people joined anti-racism gatherings in about 20 locations across the country. Further anti-racism demonstrations took place across the United Kingdom on 10 August. In London, anti-racist protesters significantly outnumbered far-right demonstrators, as 5,000 gathered outside the far-right Reform UK party headquarters. Despite an end to the unrest, police remained on high alert and had arrested over 1,000 people in connection with the riots by mid-August.²⁴

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Methodology

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