Regional Overview
Asia-Pacific
October 2024
Posted: 8 November 2024
In this Regional Overview
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- India: Militants target civilians following Jammu and Kashmir elections
- Korean Peninsula: North Korea strengthens military ties with Russia
- Myanmar: Punitive military raids surge in Sagaing region
- Pakistan: Militant attacks intensify in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
- Papua New Guinea: Deadly violence persists around the Porgera gold mine in Enga province
- Thailand: Separatist attacks and bombings commemorate Tak Bai anniversary
India: Militants target civilians following Jammu and Kashmir elections
In the first regional elections in over 10 years, the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) party won the highest number of seats in the state assembly.1Hindustan Times, ‘Omar Abdullah takes oath as first chief minister of UT of Jammu and Kashmir,’ 16 October 2024 While the elections marked a significant political milestone in the region, separatist militants carried out several deadly attacks on civilians in October, targeting mainly non-locals and laborers engaged in infrastructure projects, in a likely show of strength by the militants following the elections. The Resistance Front reportedly killed seven people working on a tunnel construction project in Ganderbal district on 20 October, the second-deadliest attack on civilians in the region this year. The tunnel, if completed, would improve military operational capabilities in the region.2Bashaarat Masood, ‘What is the Z-Morh project in Kashmir, where 7 were killed by militants?,’ Indian Express, 23 October 2024 While recent militant activity has centered in Jammu division, most of October’s violence took place in the Kashmir Valley, the historical hotbed of the insurgency. This pivot in activity demonstrates the continued risks facing the normalization of political relations in Kashmir, as the militant groups accuse the government of enabling a demographic change in the region.3Hilal Mir, ‘“‘Kashmir militants bent on stopping demographic change,’” Anadolu Agency, 23 June 2020 Violence in the area makes the restoration of full statehood — a key demand of the JKNC government — more difficult, as the national government has repeatedly indicated that an improvement in the security situation is a prerequisite for such a move.4Greater Kashmir, ‘J&K’s statehood: Positive statement soon, Centre tells SC,’ 29 August 2023
Korean Peninsula: North Korea strengthens military ties with Russia
North Korea further solidified its military cooperation with Russia this month and, at the same time, it conducted missile tests and destroyed rail links and roads with South Korea. On 31 October, North Korea test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Sea of Japan that reportedly achieved record flight duration and altitude, suggesting an advancement in nuclear and missile capabilities.5Justin McCurry, ‘North Korea missile test reaches record height and duration, says Japan,’ The Guardian, 31 October 2024 ACLED records at least 26 test-fire events by North Korea since January 2024. This followed reports that North Korea deployed thousands of troops to Russia, which has brought them closer to battlefield experience and advanced weaponry. This collaboration operationalizes the strategic military cooperation agreement Russia and North Korea signed in June.6Sarah Shamim, ‘North Korean troops in Russia: How will it impact the Ukraine war?’ Aljazeera, 29 October 2024 While South Korea stated that military cooperation between North Korea and Russia is unlikely to lead to worsening conflict on the Korean peninsula, it nonetheless poses significant security threats in the region.7Natasha Bertrand, ‘North Korea likely to ask for nuclear technology from Russia in exchange for troops, South Korea says,’ 30 October 2024
North Korea also stoked tensions with South Korea earlier in the month. On 15 October, it destroyed parts of two roads connected to the south after accusing South Korea of flying drones over Pyongyang,8Joel Guinto and Juna Moon, ‘Drones, threats and explosions: Why Korean tensions are rising,’ BBC, 16 October 2024 and designated South Korea a “hostile state.”9Reuters, ‘North Korea calls South Korea a ‘hostile state’ indicating constitution change,’ 17 October 2024 For its part, South Korea claimed North Korea sent approximately 6,000 balloons filled with trash into its territory.10The Korea Times, ‘Some of N. Korea’s trash balloons equipped with GPS transmitters: S. Korean military,’ 13 October 2024 ACLED records 30 instances in which North Korea launched waste-filled balloons into South Korean territory since the balloon battle began in May.
Myanmar: Punitive military raids surge in Sagaing region
While military attacks on civilians continued throughout the country, Sagaing region’s Budalin township was the site of two such massacres in October. On 12 October, the military ‘Tiger Orge’ column, comprising convicted soldiers and criminals and known for its extrajudicial killings,11Myanmar Peace Monitor, ‘Tiger Ogre column launches operations in Sagaing Region,’ Burma News International, 29 January 2024 raided Budalin town and Myauk Kyi village, reportedly killing at least 13 locals. This attack followed an ambush by local resistance forces on 30 September, which reportedly resulted in over 30 military fatalities. The violence continued after resistance groups targeted the Northwest Regional Military Command with kamikaze drones during a visit by the military deputy commander-in-chief on 15 October.12Democratic Voice of Burma, ‘Northwest Regional Military Command headquarters attacked with two drones during the visit of the military deputy commander-in-chief,’ 16 October 2024 That same column went on to kill six more locals in Si Par village on 17 October, displaying the victims’ mutilated body parts on a fence in an apparent effort to instill fear among locals.13Hein Htoo Zan, ‘As The World Looks Away, Myanmar’s Junta Launches Another Wave of Revenge Atrocities,’ The Irrawaddy, 22 October 2024 The military has often resorted to targeting civilians as a form of retaliation for attacks on its troops. Since January 2024, ACLED records 345 civilian targeting events in Sagaing region perpetrated by the military. These events led to nearly 550 reported civilian fatalities, with almost 42% of these fatalities resulting from 22 events when the military killed five or more civilians. Four of these civilian targeting events occurred in October, the highest number in one month since January 2024.
Pakistan: Militant attacks intensify in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
In northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, violence involving militant groups became increasingly lethal in October. On 23 October, security forces reportedly killed nine Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants during a military operation in Bajaur border district, prompting the TTP to launch a retaliatory attack in Dera Ismail Khan district that killed 10 personnel from the paramilitary Frontier Corps. According to ACLED data, reported fatalities in the province resulting from armed clashes between militants and security forces increased 45% compared to September. The TTP and its affiliated groups were involved in most of this violence. Recent reports that the TTP has deepened its presence in the region by establishing checkpoints and patrolling along major roads suggest that this escalation of intensity is likely to continue in the coming months.14X @SaleemMehsud, 20 October 2024
Amid the deteriorating security situation, the Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement (PTM), a political group advocating for the rights of the ethnic Pashtun people, including many who reside in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, organized a grand jirga (gathering) from 11 to 13 October.15Arif Hayat, ‘PTM jirga demands withdrawal of militants from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa,’ Dawn, 14 October 2024 Ahead of the gathering, the government imposed a ban on the PTM, citing threats to national peace and security, and attempted to forcibly remove supporters from the jirga site, resulting in at least three reported fatalities.16Arif Hayat, ‘PTM jirga demands withdrawal of militants from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa,’ Dawn, 14 October 2024 Nevertheless, thousands attended the jirga, which concluded with a demand for both militants and the military to leave Pashtun lands, demonstrating the challenges the Pakistan military faces in the province.17Ibrahim Shinwari, ‘Khyber jirga asks army, militants to leave Pakhtun land in 60 days,’ Dawn, 15 October 2024
Papua New Guinea: Deadly violence persists around the Porgera gold mine in Enga province
More than a month since the declaration of a state of emergency in Enga province, deadly clashes persisted near the Porgera mine throughout October. On 11 October, armed men from the Kipul tribe opened fire on 30 vehicles that were heading to the Porgera mine accompanied by state security forces. The vehicles were trying to pass through the emergency access road to Porgera, set up by the authorities following a mass landslide in May at Mulitaka. At least one source indicated that the vehicles were carrying fuel for New Porgera Limited, the company operating the Porgera mine.18Facebook @PNG Sun, 13 October 2024 One member of the tribe was shot and killed by state forces, and five others were injured. The armed men were aggrieved relatives of the victims of the Mulitaka landslide who had previously demanded that New Porgera Limited pay them haus krai money or else they would continue trying to block the road.19Antoinette Poivi, 1 dead, 5 injured in ambush, The National, 14 October 2024 Haus krai is a traditional compensation given to the family of the deceased as a show of compassion.20ABC News (Australia), ‘Haus krai costs putting pressure on Papua New Guinean families,’ 28 November 2021 The emergency road has been designated as a mass burial site, and access has been restricted since May. The road has temporarily been opened only for police to respond to tribal fighting in the area.21Antoinette Poivi, 1 dead, 5 injured in ambush, The National, 14 October 2024
Separately, police arrested 62 unauthorized miners on 12 October during a police crackdown on illegal mining activities in response to the killing of at least 32 at the mine in September. Violence related to unauthorized mining continued in Enga toward the end of the month when six people were killed on 22 October in Sirunki after armed men from the Lyain clan opened fire on a public bus. This incident was retaliation for a series of deadly attacks on 11 October involving the Mulapin tribe, an ally of the Lyain clan, and the Sakare clan, stemming from the killing of an unauthorized miner in March.22The National, ‘Tondop vows to bring killers to justice,’ 25 October 2024. Print newspaper.
Thailand: Separatist attacks and bombings commemorate Tak Bai anniversary
The 20th anniversary of the Tak Bai massacre on 25 October, which saw 85 Malay Muslim protesters reportedly killed by the army and police, was accompanied by a flurry of insurgent violence in October. On 9 October, Malay Muslim separatists launched an attack on a Border Patrol Police Task Force base and a village security team base in Pattani, killing a deputy commander. Following this attack, between 14 and 24 October, the separatists carried out a series of coordinated bombings targeting security forces, rangers, and defense volunteers, injuring at least a dozen people. Authorities suggested these incidents are in reaction to the expiration of the statute of limitations on 25 October for prosecuting officials involved in the Tak Bai deaths.23Benar News, ‘Time runs out for justice in Thailand’s Tak Bai massacre,’ 25 October 2024; Isranews Agency, ‘Heavy chaos: “Bombing, shooting, burning” expected to accelerate the pressure in Tak Bai for the 20th anniversary,’ 16 October 2024 Also anticipating the expiration of the statute of limitations, protesters held demonstrations in Bangkok, Chiang Mai, and Narathiwat, demanding justice for the victims of the Tak Bai massacre. ACLED records 11 political violence events in the Deep South in October, more than double those recorded in September.
See More
See the Codebook and the User Guide for an overview of ACLED’s core methodology. For additional documentation, check the Knowledge Base. Region-specific methodology briefs can be accessed below.
Links:
- Methodology and Coding Decisions for Political Violence and Demonstrations in Afghanistan
- Methodology and Coding Decisions for Political Violence and Demonstrations in China and Taiwan
- Methodology and Coding Decisions for Political Violence and Demonstrations in Myanmar
- Methodology and Coding Decisions for Political Violence and Demonstrations in North Korea