Regional Overview
Asia-Pacific
October 2024

Posted: 8 November 2024

In this Regional Overview

India: Militants target civilians following Jammu and Kashmir elections

In the first regional elections in over 10 years, the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) party won the highest number of seats in the state assembly.¹ While the elections marked a significant political milestone in the region, separatist militants carried out several deadly attacks on civilians in October, targeting mainly non-locals and laborers engaged in infrastructure projects, in a likely show of strength by the militants following the elections. The Resistance Front reportedly killed seven people working on a tunnel construction project in Ganderbal district on 20 October, the second-deadliest attack on civilians in the region this year. The tunnel, if completed, would improve military operational capabilities in the region.² While recent militant activity has centered in Jammu division, most of October’s violence took place in the Kashmir Valley, the historical hotbed of the insurgency. This pivot in activity demonstrates the continued risks facing the normalization of political relations in Kashmir, as the militant groups accuse the government of enabling a demographic change in the region.³ Violence in the area makes the restoration of full statehood — a key demand of the JKNC government — more difficult, as the national government has repeatedly indicated that an improvement in the security situation is a prerequisite for such a move.⁴

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Korean Peninsula: North Korea strengthens military ties with Russia

North Korea further solidified its military cooperation with Russia this month and, at the same time, it conducted missile tests and destroyed rail links and roads with South Korea. On 31 October, North Korea test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Sea of Japan that reportedly achieved record flight duration and altitude, suggesting an advancement in nuclear and missile capabilities.⁵ ACLED records at least 26 test-fire events by North Korea since January 2024. This followed reports that North Korea deployed thousands of troops to Russia, which has brought them closer to battlefield experience and advanced weaponry. This collaboration operationalizes the strategic military cooperation agreement Russia and North Korea signed in June.⁶ While South Korea stated that military cooperation between North Korea and Russia is unlikely to lead to worsening conflict on the Korean peninsula, it nonetheless poses significant security threats in the region.⁷

North Korea also stoked tensions with South Korea earlier in the month. On 15 October, it destroyed parts of two roads connected to the south after accusing South Korea of flying drones over Pyongyang,⁸ and designated South Korea a “hostile state.”⁹ For its part, South Korea claimed North Korea sent approximately 6,000 balloons filled with trash into its territory.¹⁰ ACLED records 30 instances in which North Korea launched waste-filled balloons into South Korean territory since the balloon battle began in May.

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Myanmar: Punitive military raids surge in Sagaing region

While military attacks on civilians continued throughout the country, Sagaing region’s Budalin township was the site of two such massacres in October. On 12 October, the military ‘Tiger Orge’ column, comprising convicted soldiers and criminals and known for its extrajudicial killings,¹¹ raided Budalin town and Myauk Kyi village, reportedly killing at least 13 locals. This attack followed an ambush by local resistance forces on 30 September, which reportedly resulted in over 30 military fatalities. The violence continued after resistance groups targeted the Northwest Regional Military Command with kamikaze drones during a visit by the military deputy commander-in-chief on 15 October.¹² That same column went on to kill six more locals in Si Par village on 17 October, displaying the victims’ mutilated body parts on a fence in an apparent effort to instill fear among locals.¹³ The military has often resorted to targeting civilians as a form of retaliation for attacks on its troops. Since January 2024, ACLED records 345 civilian targeting events in Sagaing region perpetrated by the military. These events led to nearly 550 reported civilian fatalities, with almost 42% of these fatalities resulting from 22 events when the military killed five or more civilians. Four of these civilian targeting events occurred in October, the highest number in one month since January 2024.

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Pakistan: Militant attacks intensify in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

In northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, violence involving militant groups became increasingly lethal in October. On 23 October, security forces reportedly killed nine Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants during a military operation in Bajaur border district, prompting the TTP to launch a retaliatory attack in Dera Ismail Khan district that killed 10 personnel from the paramilitary Frontier Corps. According to ACLED data, reported fatalities in the province resulting from armed clashes between militants and security forces increased 45% compared to September. The TTP and its affiliated groups were involved in most of this violence. Recent reports that the TTP has deepened its presence in the region by establishing checkpoints and patrolling along major roads suggest that this escalation of intensity is likely to continue in the coming months.¹⁴

Amid the deteriorating security situation, the Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement (PTM), a political group advocating for the rights of the ethnic Pashtun people, including many who reside in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, organized a grand jirga (gathering) from 11 to 13 October.¹⁵ Ahead of the gathering, the government imposed a ban on the PTM, citing threats to national peace and security, and attempted to forcibly remove supporters from the jirga site, resulting in at least three reported fatalities.¹⁶ Nevertheless, thousands attended the jirga, which concluded with a demand for both militants and the military to leave Pashtun lands, demonstrating the challenges the Pakistan military faces in the province.¹⁷

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Papua New Guinea: Deadly violence persists around the Porgera gold mine in Enga province

More than a month since the declaration of a state of emergency in Enga province, deadly clashes persisted near the Porgera mine throughout October. On 11 October, armed men from the Kipul tribe opened fire on 30 vehicles that were heading to the Porgera mine accompanied by state security forces. The vehicles were trying to pass through the emergency access road to Porgera, set up by the authorities following a mass landslide in May at Mulitaka. At least one source indicated that the vehicles were carrying fuel for New Porgera Limited, the company operating the Porgera mine.¹⁸ One member of the tribe was shot and killed by state forces, and five others were injured. The armed men were aggrieved relatives of the victims of the Mulitaka landslide who had previously demanded that New Porgera Limited pay them haus krai money or else they would continue trying to block the road.¹⁹ Haus krai is a traditional compensation given to the family of the deceased as a show of compassion.²⁰ The emergency road has been designated as a mass burial site, and access has been restricted since May. The road has temporarily been opened only for police to respond to tribal fighting in the area.²¹

Separately, police arrested 62 unauthorized miners on 12 October during a police crackdown on illegal mining activities in response to the killing of at least 32 at the mine in September. Violence related to unauthorized mining continued in Enga toward the end of the month when six people were killed on 22 October in Sirunki after armed men from the Lyain clan opened fire on a public bus. This incident was retaliation for a series of deadly attacks on 11 October involving the Mulapin tribe, an ally of the Lyain clan, and the Sakar tribe, stemming from the killing of an unauthorized miner in March.²²

Correction: A previous version of this Regional Overview mistakenly identified and spelled Sakar tribe as ‘Sakare clan’.

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Thailand: Separatist attacks and bombings commemorate Tak Bai anniversary

The 20th anniversary of the Tak Bai massacre on 25 October, which saw 85 Malay Muslim protesters reportedly killed by the army and police, was accompanied by a flurry of insurgent violence in October. On 9 October, Malay Muslim separatists launched an attack on a Border Patrol Police Task Force base and a village security team base in Pattani, killing a deputy commander. Following this attack, between 14 and 24 October, the separatists carried out a series of coordinated bombings targeting security forces, rangers, and defense volunteers, injuring at least a dozen people. Authorities suggested these incidents are in reaction to the expiration of the statute of limitations on 25 October for prosecuting officials involved in the Tak Bai deaths.²³ Also anticipating the expiration of the statute of limitations, protesters held demonstrations in Bangkok, Chiang Mai, and Narathiwat, demanding justice for the victims of the Tak Bai massacre. ACLED records 11 political violence events in the Deep South in October, more than double those recorded in September.

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Methodology

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