Regional Overview
United States & Canada
October 2024

Posted: 8 November 2024

In this Regional Overview

United States: Political violence in the US pre-election
United States: One year on, tracking the evolution of the pro-Palestine demonstration movement
Group Spotlight: Yavapai County Preparedness Team

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Demonstration trends

United States

919 demonstration events

17% increase
compared to last month

Canada

118 demonstration events

38% decrease
compared to last month

United States: Political violence in the US pre-election

Despite heightened fears of violence, the election season drew to a close without any major violent events. As extremist activity remains low compared to previous years — a trend ACLED has consistently noted throughout the year (for more, see ‘Expert Comment: Evidence suggests low risk of organized political violence ahead of US election’) — political violence by individuals made up the majority of election-related violence. In Neptune Beach, Florida, a teen who yelled his support for Trump was arrested for brandishing a machete at pro-Harris demonstrators outside a polling place, though no one was harmed. He was arrested for improper exhibition of a weapon and aggravated assault.¹ Elsewhere in Florida, a man yelled antisemitic and racial threats at pro-Harris campaigners outside an early polling station in West Palm Beach, accelerating his car toward the campaigners before swerving away. The individual was later arrested for election intimidation and interference.²

Meanwhile, ballot boxes and mailboxes containing ballots in three separate states were set on fire in October, interfering with the electoral process and possibly signifying dissatisfaction with it and current government policies. In the Portland, Oregon area, an individual used an incendiary device to set fire to a ballot box, though security personnel quickly extinguished the flames, limiting damage to only three ballots.³ In Vancouver, Washington, just over the Willamette River from Portland, hundreds of ballots were destroyed or damaged. Investigators found the incendiary devices used in these incidents marked with “free Gaza” stickers. No arrest has yet been made, but officials believe that a single perpetrator is responsible for both incidents based on the nature of the devices.⁴ In a separate incident, a mailbox containing ballots was set on fire in Phoenix, Arizona.⁵ Twenty ballots were damaged and the perpetrator, who claimed his motives were not political, was arrested.⁶

In some cases, election clerks also faced direct violence. On 24 October, a man punched a 69-year-old election clerk in the face and chest at a polling site in San Antonio, Texas, after the clerk asked him to remove his MAGA hat while in the polling site, as required under Texas’ electioneering law. Other groups, such as the Bridging Divides Initiative, have also tracked threats against local officials and noted that hostility remained high ahead of the election.⁷

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United States: One year on, tracking the evolution of the pro-Palestine demonstration movement

As the one-year anniversary of Hamas’s attack on Israel passed on 7 October, demonstrations in support of Palestine and Israel spiked, leading these demonstrations to make up just under a third of all demonstration activity in October. Both demonstrations in support of Israel and in support of Palestine reached their highest single-month levels since May 2024, which was the apex of pro-Palestine and pro-Israel campus demonstrations (for more, see this ACLED Insight). Both pro-Palestine and pro-Israel demonstrations on university campuses saw a resurgence in October. Around 90% of these demonstrations expressed pro-Palestinian sentiments. However, these demonstrations were much less frequent than they had been before the summer break, possibly because many universities limited the students’ ability to gather on campuses. Police intervention against student demonstrators also occurred much less frequently, and fewer violent demonstrations occurred. Various student and activist organizations have expressed concerns about new university rules — including banned overnight demonstrations, noise restrictions, and limits on the number of people permitted to gather — claiming they represent limitations on the freedom of speech.⁸

In the lead-up to the election, many pro-Palestine demonstrations expressed opposition to one or all candidates. However, perhaps because Kamala Harris’ Democratic party was incumbent, anti-Biden and anti-Harris demonstrations were by far the most frequent. This is true in key swing states, including Michigan, and Wisconsin, where anti-Harris demonstrations far outpaced favorable demonstrations. President-elect Donald Trump won both these swing states in the November election.

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Radical group trends

events, of which 47 involve white nationalist groups

radical groups active, of which 7 are white nationalist

Radical groups were most active in Arizona and Michigan

White nationalist groups were most active in Michigan

Group Spotlight: Yavapai County Preparedness Team

On 12 and 26 October, the Yavapai County Preparedness Team (YCPT), an Arizona militia, held its first recruitment and informational meetings of 2024, following a full year of inactivity.

The YCPT is an Oath Keepers splinter group led by Joe Arroyo, the former vice president of the Arizona chapter of the Oath Keepers. In the aftermath of the 6 January Capitol riot, Arroyo severed ties with national Oath Keepers leadership to create the YCPT, as well as its political arm and sister organization, the Lions of Liberty.⁹ Though these groups are ostensibly separate and Arroyo claims they are registered as separate entities, they are hosted on the same website, attend each others’ meetings, and for all intents and purposes operate as a single group. YCPT’s ideology includes election denial, anti-government sentiment, conspiracy theories about weather control, and preparing for catastrophes such as natural disasters (hence their name). The group has repeatedly and recently highlighted a perceived threat of civil war in the US. In many of these respects, the group still has a similar ideology as the Oath Keepers, forecasting a civil war and preparing a paramilitary response to it.¹⁰

In Arizona, the YCPT has organized a series of other ‘preparedness teams,’ founding the Chino Valley, Verde Valley, McHenry County, and Maricopa County preparedness teams.¹¹ Arroyo has also sought to export the preparedness team model to other states and claims to be in contact with individuals across the country setting up similar organizations.

During the 2022 midterm elections, members of the YCPT, in coordination with Lions of Liberty and an election denialism group called Clean Elections USA, organized ‘Operation DropBox,’ which involved taking pictures of voters and their license plates at ballot drop boxes in Maricopa County, Arizona. In some cases, the self-appointed poll watchers were armed.¹² These groups believed that there were voters stuffing ballot boxes, among other election conspiracy theories. Multiple groups that were alarmed by these actions, including the League of Women Voters, launched a lawsuit in response. The YCPT and the Lions of Liberty publicly disavowed the operation and denied involvement. In their most recent meeting, YTPT’s leadership again warned of a forthcoming civil war, referring to members of Congress as “domestic enemies.”¹³

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Methodology

See the Codebook and the User Guide for an overview of ACLED’s core methodology. For additional documentation, check the Knowledge Base. Region-specific methodology briefs can be accessed below.

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