According to the latest ACLED figures, over 200 towns and villages in Syria have been captured by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)-led rebel forces from the start of their offensive on 27 November through 30 November. HTS-led forces now control a significant stretch of territory spanning the provinces of Hama, Idlib, Aleppo, and Latakia in Syria’s west and northwest (see map below).
In exchange, Syrian and Russian forces have further intensified their attacks, with ACLED recording — between 27 and 30 November — around 40 airstrike events carried out by Russian forces, while Syrian government forces conducted approximately a dozen airstrikes and 40 shelling attacks targeting areas held by opposition forces (see graph below).
In the weeks leading up to the current offensive, regime and Russian forces had already intensified their attacks. ACLED records 684 aerial and artillery strikes across over 120 distinct locations in opposition-held territories in the north as reported between 1 October and 26 November, reportedly resulting in at least 39 people killed, including both civilians and militants.
ACLED Middle East analyst Ameneh Mehvar said: “The timing of HTS’s assault suggests that the weakening of the regime’s allies, particularly in light of developments in Lebanon, likely created an opportunity that HTS has seized. Since 7 October 2023, Israel has also ramped up attacks in Syria, with ACLED recording over 300 shelling and airstrikes by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) on the regime, Hezbollah, and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) forces and weapon depots, including ones located in Aleppo. The Middle East is now faced with the prospects of another intensified front reopening, at a time when the region stands at a grim crossroads with conflicts ongoing on several fronts.”
For journalists in US time zones, please contact Gina Dorso at +1 631 671 1230 or [email protected]. For journalists in European time zones, please contact Tania Corbett at +44 776 969 5250 or [email protected].
ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data) produces the highest quality and most widely used real-time data and analysis on political violence and protest around the world. ACLED is an independent, impartial, international non-profit organization offering precise, disaggregated, locally informed, evidence-based information for use by academics, policymakers, humanitarian practitioners, journalists, corporations, and the wider public.
Visuals produced by Ana Marco.
