Regional Overview
Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia
November 2024

Posted: 9 December 2024

In this Regional Overview

France: Farmers resume protests over EU-Mercosur trade deal
Georgia: Post-election crisis persists; Abkhazia leader ousted
Netherlands: Israeli football fans and Dutch Arabs clash in Amsterdam
Serbia: Deadly roof collapse at a train station sparks massive countrywide protests
Ukraine-Russia: Long-range strikes escalate

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France: Farmers resume protests over EU-Mercosur trade deal

Triggered by the potential signing of the contentious trade deal between the European Union and several South American countries in the Mercosur bloc,¹ farmers across France resumed protests in November. Led by the National Federation of Farmers’ Unions (FNSEA) and the Young Farmers (JA), the movement quickly gained momentum, rallying other unions — notably the Rural Coordination (CR) — to voice deep-seated grievances and demand that the Barnier government fulfill agricultural promises made by its predecessors in early 2024.² ACLED records over 230 farmer-related protests in France in November — more than seven times the monthly average since coverage of France began in 2020 and the second-highest monthly total after the previous peak of farmer demonstrations in January 2024.

Unlike those protests, which were dominated by convoys and roadblocks, recent demonstrations have appeared more focused and localized following the announcement of a tougher police response.³ Actions have included bonfires, blockades of supermarket logistics hubs, and the dumping of farm waste outside state buildings. While largely peaceful, notable incidents have included the looting of a truck carrying Spanish goods; vandalism of a farming insurance fund building in Nimes, Occitanie region; and symbolic acts such as bricking up building entrances that have targeted environmental regulators and associations, despite recent relaxation of environmental norms for farmers at the European level.⁴ Although the government reaffirmed its opposition to the current EU-Mercosur trade deal and parliament unanimously voted against the agreement,⁵ the FNSEA, JA, CR, and other farming unions have called for fresh demonstrations in early December, citing unresolved grievances.⁶ Polish farmers also began protests and blocked a border crossing with Ukraine, voicing opposition to the EU-Mercosur deal.

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Georgia: Post-election crisis persists; Abkhazia leader ousted

The standoff between the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party and the opposition deepened in November. The latter refused to take up seats in parliament while small-scale demonstrations against alleged election fraud continued throughout the month. On 19 November, police dispersed an encampment in the area of Tbilisi State University. On 25 November, amid demonstrations and tightened security, GD members of parliament single-handedly inaugurated the new parliament. With the opposition boycotting subsequent sessions as well, they confirmed a GD-led government. On 28 November, the European Parliament called for a re-run of parliamentary elections in Georgia and the sanctioning of its top officials.⁷ Shortly afterward, Georgia’s Prime Minister, Irakli Kobakhize, announced the suspension of accession talks with the EU for the remainder of GD’s fourth term in office until the end of 2028 and the rejection of EU aid. Both have been on hold since adopting a foreign agent law in May. The announcement triggered demonstrations in the capital, Tbilisi, and other cities across Georgia, which riot police dispersed with water cannons and riot-control chemicals. It appears police also deliberately beat up journalists covering the events.⁸ The number of demonstrators and detentions grew by the day. Demonstrators erected barricades in the city center, set fires, and launched fireworks toward police concentrated around parliament. The United States suspended a strategic partnership with Georgia⁹ while multiple civil servants and diplomats announced resignations.¹⁰ Outgoing President Salome Zourabichvili warned she would not hand over to a GD-appointed successor on 29 December.¹¹

For more information, see ACLED’s Election Watch report, Georgia: An “existential” election.

Meanwhile, an attempt to grant privileges to Russian businesses¹² backfired in Abkhazia, the Black Sea coast region of about 240,000 people that seceded from Georgia in the early 1990s.¹³ It is a client of Russia, which maintains a military base in the region¹⁴ and funds about half of the local budget.¹⁵ After signing an investment agreement with the Russian government,¹⁶ Abkhazia’s authorities encountered popular resistance while attempting to ratify it. On the eve of the vote, police detained five opposition activists but released them shortly after demonstrators blocked three bridges leading to the region’s capital, Sukhumi. On 15 November, crowds gathered in Sukhumi, initially demanding the scrapping of the ratification bill and — after clashing with police and occupying the government quarter — the resignation of Abkhazia’s President, Aslan Bzhania. With his term expiring in early 2025, Bzhania eventually stepped down. He is the third Abkhaz leader who has been toppled in a popular uprising in the past 10 years.¹⁷

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Netherlands: Israeli football fans and Dutch Arabs clash in Amsterdam

Clashes involving Israeli football supporters and members of the Dutch Arab community occurred on the eve of and after an Ajax-Maccabi Tel Aviv match on 7 November in Amsterdam. Israeli fans chanted anti-Arab slurs, tore down and burnt Palestinian flags around the city, pelted stones, and assaulted a taxi driver, damaging his vehicle. Local authorities proscribed a pro-Palestine demonstration in the vicinity of the stadium on 7 November on security grounds. However, some pro-Palestine activists still approached the area and clashed with police. Egged on by calls to violence on messaging apps overnight, mobs chased and assaulted Israelis returning from the match across the city. Five injured Israelis were hospitalized. Police arrested 62 people, including 10 Israelis.¹⁸ Amsterdam authorities temporarily banned or relocated further pro-Palestine demonstrations in the city, which nonetheless proceeded between 11 and 13 November and resulted in clashes with police, a tram set ablaze, and multiple arrests. An investigation is ongoing into alleged police brutality during one of the dispersals.¹⁹ Sports events involving Israeli teams have been previously canceled in Belgium and Bosnia and Herzegovina due to security concerns in the wake of Israel’s offensives in Gaza and Lebanon.²⁰ A match between the French and Israeli national football teams in Paris on 14 November went ahead amid significant police presence. A match between Turkish and Israeli football clubs on 28 November was relocated from Turkey to Hungary and held without spectators.²¹

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Serbia: Deadly roof collapse at a train station sparks massive countrywide protests

The collapse of a concrete canopy at a recently renovated train station in Novi Sad on 1 November, which killed 15 people, sparked widespread protests across Serbia. On 22 November, protests occurred in at least 50 cities, where citizens occupied the streets for 15 minutes to honor the victims and demand accountability for their deaths. This marked the most demonstrations on a single day since ACLED began recording data for Serbia in 2018. Throughout November, some demonstrations turned violent, particularly in Novi Sad and the capital, Belgrade, where clashes erupted among demonstrators, police, and counter-demonstrators, some of whom were later identified as officials from the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) party. In some cases, police responded with tear gas, pushbacks, and detentions. Demonstrators and unknown perpetrators vandalized SNS offices in Novi Sad and Kragujevac and splattered red paint on SNS offices in several locations. Finally, on 25 November, tensions between the opposition and SNS members escalated into a physical confrontation during a National Assembly session after a motion of no confidence was rejected. Two ministers in the SNS government resigned over the tragedy, and one has been remanded in an investigation along with 12 others.²²

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Ukraine-Russia: Long-range strikes escalate

On 19 and 20 November, Ukrainian forces struck a Russian ammunition dump in the Bryansk region and a command and control point in the Kursk region with long-range missiles, killing and wounding several high-ranking Russian and North Korean military personnel at the latter location. The US previously limited the use of ATACMS and SCALP/Storm Shadow missiles to Ukrainian territory only. On 21 November, having amended its nuclear doctrine to now allow a nuclear response to attacks with conventional weapons,²³ Russia fired an intermediate-range ballistic missile at a missile plant in Dnipro city. It was the first use of such a missile in an armed conflict, though it is believed to have carried no charge.²⁴ Russia’s President Vladimir Putin subsequently accused Ukraine’s backers of escalating the war and threatened further strikes against Ukraine and its backers.²⁵ He also blamed the US for unraveling missile control, tying it to talks on a ceasefire in Ukraine.²⁶

Earlier, on 17 November, Russia resumed large-scale drone and missile strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. The previous nine waves of Russian attacks between March and August deprived Ukraine of 80% of its thermal power generation capacity. The country now relies on three nuclear power plants and electricity imports. Another wave of strikes occurred on 28 November. On both occasions, Russia used close to a hundred missiles accompanied by a similar number of drones, targeting energy infrastructure in central and western Ukraine and inducing emergency shutdowns and blackouts amid near-freezing temperatures.

On the battlefield, Ukraine has been losing ground in and around Kurakhove in the Donetsk region. Russian forces also started assaulting the Ukrainian stronghold of Velyka Novosilka near the boundaries of Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhia regions. Heavy fighting continued in and near Toretsk and Chasiv Yar. In the Kharkiv region, Russian forces briefly broke into the eastern part of Kupiansk on the left bank of the Oskil River, which they appear to have crossed upstream in the area of Dvorichna. Russian forces further reduced the Ukrainian foothold in the Kursk region around Sudzha.

For more information, see the ACLED Ukraine Conflict Monitor.

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