Israel’s continued military presence in southern Lebanon after the 26 January deadline has once again raised concerns over further confrontation along the border. During the first 60 days of the ceasefire that began on 27 November, cross-border violence significantly decreased, with the agreement largely holding despite over 330 shelling and aerial strike incidents carried out by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). During this period, Israeli ground troops significantly intensified clearing and razing operations in southern Lebanon. ACLED records over 260 property destruction events during this period — more than seven times the number for the two months prior. Operating in nearly 50 distinct locations, the IDF demolished residential structures, roads, and other civilian infrastructure, asserting that these actions were part of efforts to dismantle Hezbollah’s military sites and weapons caches.1Abbie Cheeseman and Meg Kelly, ‘Despite truce, Israel has damaged or destroyed hundreds of buildings in Lebanon,’ Washington Post, 19 January 2025 Questions now remain about what prevented the IDF from completing its clearing operations in southern Lebanon before the agreed-upon deadline.
Israeli ground forces had completed operations in most of the western sector of southern Lebanon by 26 January, with clearance activities still reported in and around 14 villages, mainly in the eastern sector, in the three days leading up to the ceasefire deadline (see map below). Yet, Israeli officials maintain that the IDF needs to continue operating in the south because the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) has not consolidated sufficient control over the south to effectively dismantle Hezbollah’s warehouses and infrastructure.2Amy Spiro, Emanuel Fabian and Jacob Magid, ‘ Israel won’t complete full withdrawal from Lebanon by Sunday deadline, PM says,’ Times of Israel, 24 January 2025 The LAF, however, stresses that it is ready to deploy to the remaining areas in the south but can only do so once IDF forces have withdrawn from the region.3Patrick Kingsley, Ronen Bergman, and Natan Odenheimer, ‘Israel Appears Poised to Keep Its Troops in Lebanon Beyond Deadline,’ New York Times, 24 January 2025 Indeed, by the ceasefire deadline, the LAF had deployed forces to 35 locations following the IDF’s withdrawal. Amid reports that the Israeli government is seeking approval from the Trump administration to maintain five outposts in southern Lebanon, it appears that Israel may retain a limited presence in the area for the foreseeable future, ostensibly as a buffer zone to prevent Hezbollah’s return.4Middle East Eye, ‘Israel pushing Trump for approval to keep troops in Lebanon: Report,’ 22 January 2025
Despite warnings about Israel’s continued presence in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah is unlikely to risk direct confrontation and further escalation at this time, as it has largely refrained from attacking Israel in the past two months and remains focused on rebuilding its capabilities. Nevertheless, the longer Israel delays its withdrawal, the greater the likelihood of a recurrence of violence — such as on 26 January, when the IDF shot and killed 24 people attempting to return home5Wassim Seif El Din, ‘Lebanon says 24 killed, scores injured by Israeli fire as deadline for withdrawal extended,’ Anadolu, 27 January 2025 — which could ultimately compel Hezbollah to respond. Furthermore, while a strong Lebanese government is crucial to limiting Hezbollah’s influence and integrating its armed forces under state institutions, Israel’s continued presence in southern Lebanon could undermine the leadership of newly elected President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam.
Visuals produced by Ana Marco.
