Regional Overview
Europe and Central Asia
February 2025
Posted: 6 February 2025
In this Regional Overview covering January 2025
- Georgia: A crackdown on the opposition and journalists continues
- Greece: Demonstrations erupt over leaked phone calls from the 2023 Tempe rail crash
- Russia: Ukraine intensifies strikes on Russian energy infrastructure
- Serbia: Prime Minister Miloš Vučević resigns amid anti-corruption protests
- Ukraine: Russian forces advance on several fronts in the Donetsk region
Georgia: A crackdown on the opposition and journalists continues
January was marked by the high-profile targeting of opposition leaders and journalists in Georgia amid continued demonstrations against the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party’s suspension of EU talks in November. On 14 January, Georgian Dream members and at least one sitting member of parliament from the party beat up a journalist and the leader of the For Georgia opposition party, Giorgi Gakharia, in Batumi. Four days later, on 18 January, individuals suspected to be affiliated with the Georgian Dream party assaulted two members of the Lelo for Georgia party in Tbilisi.
Earlier in the month, on 12 January, police arrested prominent journalist Mzia Amaglobeli during a protest, along with the leader of the opposition Droa party, Helene Khoshtaria. Amaglobeli’s lawyers claim she faced police brutality while in custody.1Sophie Megrelidze and Dasha Litvinova, ‘A Russia-like crackdown has jailed dozens in Georgia, with human rights groups sounding the alarm,’ The Associated Press, 4 February 2025 The journalist started a hunger strike to denounce her arrest and this alleged police brutality. ACLED records 20 protest events demanding her release in January amid calls for popular mobilization. In anticipation of renewed protests, the Georgian government issued a decree that made the blocking of highways a crime on 31 January.2Civil Georgia, ‘Ahead of Scheduled Major Protest, GD Makes Closing Highways a Crime, Police Detains Activists,’ 1 February 2025 Although events of violence targeting civilians decreased from December to January, the high-profile nature of the attacks serves as an indication of the deteriorating political climate in the country. Overall, 2024 saw the highest number of civilian targeting events in Georgia since 2020.
Greece: Demonstrations erupt over leaked phone calls from the 2023 Tempe rail crash
In the last week of January, leaked phone calls from the victims of the February 2023 rail crash in Tempe triggered mass protests across Greece. The protests called for justice for the victims of the crash under the slogan “I have no oxygen,” in reference to the last words of one of the victims heard in the leaked calls. The audio material proved that more than half of the deceased had survived the crash but died in a subsequent explosion and fire. Experts commissioned by the victims’ families suggested that the train may have been carrying undisclosed flammable materials, fueling accusations of a government cover-up.3Lucas Velidakis and Stavros Tzimas, ‘Thousands gather in Greece’s cities to call for justice in Tempe disaster,’ eKathimerini, 26 January 2025 ACLED records over 250 demonstration events in January, making it the month with the highest number of demonstrations in Greece since the start of ACLED’s coverage of Europe in 2018.
While most demonstrations were peaceful, demonstrators clashed with police in Greece’s two biggest cities on 26 January. In Thessaloniki, brief clashes occurred in side streets between demonstrators and police in the aftermath of the main demonstration. In Athens, police threw tear gas and stun grenades at the crowd after clashes with a group of anti-establishment rioters. The police’s response, particularly from the unit for riot control, called the MAT, drew criticism from journalists who accused officers of deliberately targeting members of the press to prevent them from documenting their use of force.4The Press Project, ‘“That grenade was thrown to do real harm”— Union of Greek photoreporters calls protest over police attack on Marios Lolos,’ 30 January 2025 Demonstrations are likely to continue into February with a risk of escalation ahead of the second anniversary of the crash on 28 February.
Russia: Ukraine intensifies strikes on Russian energy infrastructure
Long-range Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory increased by a third from December to January. Almost all of the strikes involved the use of drones. Unlike attacks in previous months, which mostly hit military sites, over half of January’s strikes targeted oil, gas, and energy infrastructure. They followed Russia’s campaign against Ukraine’s energy facilities in December and included strikes on some of Russia’s largest oil refineries on 29 and 31 January near Nizhny Novgorod and Volgograd, respectively. Another drone launched on 29 January was intercepted while reportedly en route to the nuclear power plant in Smolensk.5Anastasiia Malenko, et al., ‘Ukraine mounts big drone attack, says it hit Russian refinery,’ Reuters, 29 January 2025 Additionally, Ukraine engaged in repeat attacks on sites to ensure more damage. Ryazan oil refinery, oil depots in Engels and Liski, and Kremniy El microchip plant in Bryansk were struck several times during the month. Some attacks took place when fires caused by the previous strike were not fully extinguished.
After refusing to renew the expired contract between Russia’s Gazprom and Ukraine’s Naftogaz gas companies, Ukraine completely cut off Russia’s supply of gas through Ukrainian territory on 1 January, reducing the export volume of Gazprom by around 16%6Sergey Vakulenko, ‘What the End of Ukraine Gas Transit Means for Kyiv, Moscow, and Europe,’ Carnegie Politika, 15 January 2025 and causing an energy crisis in Moldova’s breakaway Transnistria region.7Vitalie Cojocari, ‘Can Moldova’s breakaway Transnistria region weather the loss of Russian gas?’ Euronews, 16 January 2025 Despite this setback, Russia increased its supply of gas to Europe through the TurkStream pipeline and the shipping of liquefied natural gas.8Sergey Sukhankin, ‘European Union Continues Dependency on Russian LNG,’ Eurasia Daily Monitor, 29 January 2025; Daily Sabah, ‘Russia’s gas exports via TurkStream hit record high in January,’ 2 February 2025 On 11 January, Russia accused Ukraine of launching at least nine drones at the TurkStream international gas pipeline in the Krasnodar Region,9Meduza, ‘Russian Ministry of Defense: Ukrainian drones tried to attack a compressor station in Krasnodar region to stop gas supply via TurkStream,’ 13 January 2025 which caused minor damage to auxiliary buildings but no damage to the pipeline itself.
Serbia: Prime Minister Miloš Vučević resigns amid anti-corruption protests
After months of anti-corruption protests, Serbian Prime Minister Miloš Vučević announced his resignation on 28 January. A wave of protests broke out following the reported deaths of 15 people when a canopy collapsed at the Novi Sad railway station on 1 November 2024. Demonstrators have been demanding accountability from the government, claiming that the canopy collapse was the result of systemic corruption.10Sanja Kljajic, ‘Can Serbia’s student protests bring about change?,’ Deutsche Welle, 3 February 2025 Students have been spearheading the movement, occupying almost all state faculty buildings in the country and participating in 50% of all protests since November. In January, ACLED records more than 350 protest events, making it the month with the highest number of demonstrations in Serbia since the start of ACLED’s coverage of Europe in 2018.
Until the end of January, the government had been lukewarm in responding to the protesters’ demands. It only called for dialogue as students carried out a 24-hour blockade of one of the main intersections in Belgrade on 27 January. On the same night, several masked men armed with bats emerged from the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) offices in Novi Sad. They attacked a group of students who had been putting up stickers for an upcoming protest and broke one student’s jaw. This incident followed other instances of violence against protesters throughout the month, including two car-ramming attacks that left two students seriously injured. Vučević’s resignation was a direct response to this escalation. He claimed that he had resigned “in order to diffuse tensions.”11Jennifer Rankin and Jakub Krupa, ‘Serbian Prime Minister Resigns amid anti-corruption protests,’ The Guardian, 28 January 2025 At this stage, it is unclear whether the resignation will be followed by a snap election or a government reshuffling. The students, however, insist that their demands have not been met and plan to continue their mobilization.12Ma J., ‘Students on the Prime Minister’s resignation: Maybe the chair is important to him, but not to us,’ Vreme, 28 January 2025
Ukraine: Russian forces advance on several fronts in the Donetsk region
Russian forces accelerated their advance in three directions in the Donetsk region in January. After seizing Kurakhove in early January, Russian forces continued their assault toward Pokrovsk city — a defensive stronghold of Ukrainian forces and a major logistical hub. Similarly to the battle for Kurakhove, Russian forces, who outnumbered Ukrainian troops in the region,13Max Hunder, ‘Russia closes in on key Ukrainian city, seeking gateway for future advances,’ Reuters, 31 January 2025 launched attacks from several directions simultaneously with the aim of overwhelming Ukrainian forces. They started to encircle the city from the west, east, and south, occupying several smaller settlements on the way. In January, Russian forces seized around 30 Ukrainian settlements, half of them in the Pokrovskyi district.
The assault from Pokrovsk’s west allowed the Russian army to approach the border with the Dnipropetrovsk region, which is currently under the full control of the Ukrainian government. Spillover into the Dnipropetrovsk region would bring battles to a sixth region of Ukraine. East of Pokrovsk, Russian forces occupied most of Toretsk, reportedly disguising themselves as civilians to accelerate the capture.14Kateryna Hodunova, ‘Russian soldiers near Toretsk disguise as civilians to bypass Ukrainian positions, military says,’ The Kyiv Independent, 4 January 2025 This enabled Russia to resume its assault toward Kostiantynivka, a major industrial city and critical transportation hub.15Angelica Evans, et al., ‘Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 26, 2025,’ Institute for the Study of War, 26 January 2025 Southwest of Pokrovsk, close to the border with the Zaporizhia region, Ukrainian forces were forced to withdraw from Velyka Novosilka, bringing closer the capture of the entire southwestern part of the Donetsk region.
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