Regional Overview
Europe and Central Asia
March 2025

Germany: Anti-extremism demonstrations surge ahead of tense elections

The final weeks of an unusually brief electoral campaign ahead of the snap 23 February federal elections in Germany were marked by a spike in political violence and heightened street mobilization. ACLED records at least seven targeted attacks on politicians’ and political parties’ properties and at least five acts of violence against candidates and election volunteers. This figure reflects ACLED data on the rising violence in the run-up to elections as well as the overall increase in violence against politicians in Germany. Meanwhile, on 13 February, an asylum seeker drove into a labor demonstration in Munich, killing three and injuring 39 people. Shortly after, on 21 February, another refugee stabbed a Spanish tourist at the Holocaust Memorial in Berlin. While Germany was not the only European country affected by such attacks — similar incidents also occurred in Austria and France in February — these episodes further fuelled political polarization and kept migration policy at the top of the political debate. 

In response to the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) alliance enlisting the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) to float plans for a tougher immigration policy, demonstrations against the far-right surged in late January and continued into February. ACLED records over 300 mostly peaceful demonstrations in opposition to right-wing extremism and the AfD — up by 170% from January. This makes February the month with the third-highest number of such demonstrations since the revelation of a far-right remigration plot in January 2024 spurred countrywide mobilization. The largest rallies occurred in Berlin, Munich, Hamburg, and Stuttgart, gathering over 500,000 people combined.¹Deutsche Presse-Agentur, “Tens of thousands at demonstration in Hamburg for democracy and diversity,” 1 February 2025 (German); Deutsche Presse-Agentur, “Tens of thousands on the streets after vote on migration,” 2 February 2025 (German); Deutsche Presse-Agentur, “Protests against AfD and CDU course – Police: 160,000 in Berlin,” 2 February 2025 (German); Deutsche Presse-Agentur, “250,000 people at demonstration against right-wing extremism in Munich,” 8 February 2025 (German) Notwithstanding, AfD doubled its support from the 2021 elections with a fifth of the vote to become the second-largest force in parliament.²Paul Kirby, “Five key takeaways from the German election,” BBC, 24 February 2025  

For more on election-related violence in Germany, see ACLED Election Watch Germany’s political polarization spills into the streets ahead of federal elections.

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Greece: Train crash anniversary demonstrations result in violence

The second anniversary of the Tempe rail disaster on 28 February saw the largest demonstrations in the country since the Greek debt crisis a decade ago.³Derek Gatopoulos and Elena Becatoros, “Violent protests in Greece on rail crash anniversary as frustration at system failures boils over,” The Associated Press, 28 February 2025 They were also a follow-up to the 26 January demonstrations under the slogan “I have no oxygen,” which were triggered by the leaked recording of a victim’s call to the emergency services. Labor unions called a nationwide general strike, with hundreds of demonstrations to demand justice and accountability taking place in Greece and abroad.⁴Anthee Carassava, “Greece Mourns Tempe Train Disaster Victims with Massive Protests,” iEfimerida, 1 March 2025

Although most gatherings unfolded peacefully, clashes erupted between some demonstrators and police in Athens, Heraklion, and Thessaloniki. In Athens, where up to 800,000 participants turned out on Syntagma square,⁵iMEdD Lab, “Crowd counting tool,” accessed on 5 March 2025 police dispersed demonstrators abruptly after hooded youths hurled petrol bombs at police and tried to storm the barricades of the parliament building.⁶Edward Mcallister and Renee Maltezou, “Clashes erupt in Greece as hundreds of thousands protest deadly train crash,” Reuters, 28 February 2025 The media reported excessive police force, while demonstrators accused police officers of having slow reactions to the rioting and using it as an excuse to disperse the otherwise peaceful crowd.⁷To Pontiki, “Tempe: A river of people for justice ‘drowned’ Athens – The magnificent rally in 20+1 photographic clicks,” 28 February 2025 (Greek) Thirty-four demonstrators were admitted to hospitals, including a photojournalist who was hit in the head by a police stun grenade. Dozens more demonstrators reported minor injuries.⁸Athens – Macedonian News Agency, “ANA-MPA photojournalist Orestis Panagiotou injured during incidents at Syntagma,” 28 February 2025 After their dispersal, demonstrators attempted to return to the square, where clashes continued overnight.⁹Lefteris Pitarakis, Boris Pilipenko, and Michael Varaklas, “Police and protesters face off into the night following clashes on rail disaster anniversary,” The Associated Press, 28 February 2025 

Although the ruling New Democracy (ND) party was reelected with a strong mandate after the Tempe disaster, public resentment has been growing over a perceived government cover-up of the causes of the Tempe disaster and the slow pace of investigation, which has amplified the lack of trust in the judiciary and government.¹⁰eKathimerini, “Poll finds most citizens see cover-up in Tempe and wiretapping cases,” 6 February 2025 This growing resentment has coincided with notable acts of violence targeting the properties of ND members. In the week before and on the date of the Tempe anniversary, the offices of three ND members of parliament in Thessaloniki and Crete were targeted in property destruction attacks. In addition, on the eve of the demonstrations, the anarchist group Immediate Response Cells set off an explosive device at the office of an ND member of the European Parliament in Varkiza.¹¹eKathimerini, “Self-styled anarchists claim responsibility for attack at ND MEP’s building,” 27 February 2025

See also: Is radical group violence on the rise in the EU? / ACLED Insight and ACLED Election Watch The Normalization of Political Violence and the 2023 Legislative Elections in Greece.

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Russia: Russian forces counter-attack in the Kursk region and Ukraine targets Russian oil infrastructure  

Despite a nearly 15% decrease in the number of battles fought over the Ukraine-held part of Russia’s Kursk region in February, both Russian and Ukrainian forces engaged in offensive operations. Ukrainian troops unsuccessfully attempted to improve their posture southeast of Sudzha while Russian units launched assaults west and northwest of the town and reached the border with Ukraine’s Sumy region. Ukrainian forces repelled Russian cross-border ground attacks into Sumy¹²Agence France Presse, “Ukraine Denies Putin Claim Of Fresh Cross-border Attack,” 19 February 2025 but lost one of their supply routes.¹³Ellie Cook, “Kursk Map Shows Location Of 4,000 Ukrainians At Risk Of Getting Cut Off,” Newsweek, 27 February 2025 Russian troops are now seemingly attempting to encircle the Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk region around Malaya Loknya. Earlier in February, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy floated the idea of a territorial exchange as part of ceasefire negotiations with Russia.¹⁴Shawn Walker, “Zelenskyy: Europe cannot guarantee Ukraine’s security without America,” The Guardian, 11 February 2025  

Meanwhile, the number of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia’s internationally recognized territory increased by a quarter compared with January, of which 94% affected border areas of the Begorod region adjacent to Ukraine’s Kharkiv and Sumy regions. The rest of the strikes again mostly targeted Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure, incapacitating a major oil refinery in the Ryazan region and an oil pumping station in the Krasnodar region, which was used to transfer around 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports.¹⁵Reuters, “Caspian pipeline oil exports on schedule, Kazakhstan says,” 26 February 2025 Furthermore, an explosion occurred in the engine room of the Koala oil tanker harbored in Ust-Luga port in the Leningrad region, raising suspicion of sabotage as the ship is believed to be involved in circumventing the G7 and Australia’s price cap¹⁶Federal Foreign Office of Germany, “Statement of the G7 and Australia on a price cap for seaborne Russian-origin crude oil,” 2 December 2022 on Russia’s oil.¹⁷Agence France Press, “Russia Probes Explosion on Oil Tanker,” 9 February 2025 Similar incidents involving Russia’s “shadow fleet”¹⁸Robin Brooks and Ben Harris, “Where did Russia’s shadow fleet come from?” Brookings Institution, 27 February 2025 have also occurred recently in the Mediterranean Sea.¹⁹Renee Maltezou, Yannis Souliotis, and Jonathan Saul, “Limpet mines likely caused blasts on two tankers in Mediterranean Sea, sources say,” Reuters, 24 February 2025

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Ukraine: Russia advances slowly amid ongoing attacks on Ukraine’s gas and nuclear infrastructure

The advance of Russian forces slowed in February amid a 20% decrease in the number of battles compared to January. Russian forces still took control of 14 Ukrainian settlements, down from 31 in January, mostly in the Donetsk region, where they sought to reach the region’s western boundary after the fall of Velyka Novosilka and to envelop Pokrovsk from the south. Russia also claimed to have occupied Toretsk further north, which had been under assault since June 2024, though fighting in and near the town is ongoing.²⁰Brendan Cole and John Feng, “Russians Blame ‘Lying’ Commanders for Ukraine’s Toretsk Advances,” Newsweek, 3 March 2025 The possible loss of Toretsk opened speculation about a potential Russian offensive toward Kostiantynivka south of the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk urban sprawl in the northern part of the region.²¹Christina Harward et al., “Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 15, 2025,” Institute for the Study of War, 15 February 2025; Angelica Evans et al., “Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 16, 2025,” Institute for the Study of War, 16 February 2025 ACLED notes an increased risk for the remaining civilians in the Kramatorskyi district, where Russian daily bombardment killed at least 20 civilians — over half of the reported civilian fatalities in the region for the month.

Russia continued its deliberate strike campaign on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure throughout the month, damaging and destroying energy infrastructure across the country with a particular focus on disrupting natural gas production. On 11 and 20 February, Russian missile and drone strikes damaged natural gas facilities in the Poltava and Kharkiv regions, respectively — the two regions that host most of Ukraine’s natural gas production.²²Anastasiia Malenko and Pavel Polityuk, “Russia targets infrastructure in Ukraine’s east and south in extensive overnight air attack,” Reuters, 20 February 2025 Russia’s strikes on the industry since Ukraine’s cessation of Russian gas transit through its territory on 1 January have resulted in a 40% decline in domestic gas production.²³Pavel Polityuk, “Ukraine plans to import 800 mcm of gas until April after Russian strikes,” Reuters, 21 February 2025; Volodymyr Verbianyi, “Ukraine to Up Gas Imports as Russian Attacks Hit Infrastructure,” Bloomberg, 4 March 2024 In addition, Russian forces destroyed a thermal power plant in Mykolaiv city and repeatedly targeted energy infrastructure in Odesa city and the surrounding region between 18 and 26 February. Another energy facility was struck in the Dnipropetrovsk region on 26 February. These strikes on energy infrastructure, compounded by about 18 gigawatts of Ukraine’s energy generation losses due to the Russian occupation since the beginning of the full-scale invasion,²⁴Facebook @German.Galushchenko, 24 February 2025 have exacerbated the energy crisis in the country despite the relatively mild cold season and mitigation efforts preventing extended blackouts.²⁵ACAPS, “Ukraine: Energy infrastructure attacks – Updated outlook and impact during the 2024–2025 cold season,” 19 February 2025 

The ongoing emphasis on targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure continues to augment the risk of a nuclear accident. The Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant is again on the verge of a blackout due to ongoing remote violence around it.²⁶Facebook @MinEnergoUkraine, 11 February 2025 On 14 February, a Russian attack drone pierced a protection shield over the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant in the Kyiv region, starting a fire. 

For more information, see the ACLED Ukraine Conflict Monitor and ACLED’s latest report, Bombing into submission: Russian targeting of civilians and infrastructure in Ukraine.

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