Regional Overview
Europe and Central Asia
June 2025

Posted: 5 June 2025

In this Regional Overview covering May 2025

Europe: Pro-Palestine protests sweep across the continent
Europe: Russia-linked incidents keep up pressure across the region
Russia: Waves of Ukrainian drones strike deep into Russia
Spain: A former Yanukovych associate gunned down near Madrid
Ukraine: Russia intensifies offensives amid renewed peace talks

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Europe: Pro-Palestine protests sweep across the continent

Thousands of people took to the streets across Europe in May to support Palestine and denounce Israel’s latest operations in Gaza, which have seen the most extensive and intense airstrike campaign since December 2023. ACLED records at least 370 related demonstrations across the continent — the highest number since October 2024, which marked a year since Hamas’ attack on Israel and the subsequent Israeli offensive on Gaza.

The largely peaceful demonstrations demanded an end to the Israeli offensive and appealed to European leaders and institutions for action, including activists entering the Ministry of Finance building in Oslo to demand a withdrawal of Norway’s Oil Fund investments from companies linked to Israel. Demonstrations peaked on 1 May for Labor Day and around the 77th anniversary of the Nakba (Catastrophe) on 15 May, marking the beginning of the mass displacement of Palestinians around the foundation of Israel and ensuing Arab-Israeli war. The region’s largest rallies were recorded in the Netherlands, with 100,000 people gathering in The Hague on 18 May,¹ and in London, with up to an estimated half a million people marching on 17 May.² Demonstrations turned violent on a few occasions, including in Berlin, where clashes at a pro-Palestine rally resulted in over 50 arrests and the injury of both demonstrators and police officers.³

Renewed civil society mobilization over the Israeli offensive on Gaza coincided with what seems to be a policy shift within European Union institutions. On 20 May, despite the opposition of eight member states, including Germany, Italy, and Hungary, EU countries approved a Dutch proposal to review the EU-Israel Association Agreement, citing human rights violations.⁴ Israel accused the EU of “a total misunderstanding of the complex reality Israel is facing” in return.⁵ On the same day, the United Kingdom announced that it had suspended free trade talks with Israel.⁶

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Europe: Russia-linked incidents keep up pressure across the region

Suspected Russian destabilization activities appear to be picking up again across Europe. The uptick follows a relative lull in early 2025 in the wake of United States President Donald Trump’s election and indications that Russia might test US diplomatic pressure on Ukraine and its allies. ACLED records at least seven incidents in May, including arson and foiled sabotage plots, in addition to increased tensions in the Baltic Sea.

In the UK, a string of arson attacks on properties linked to the prime minister between 8 and 12 May prompted investigations into Russian involvement.⁷ In Germany, prosecutors called out a Russian-backed sabotage operation after the arrest of three Ukrainians for scouting freight routes with GPS-tracked parcels intended for explosive attacks.⁸ In France, although no official connection to Russia had been made yet, investigators were looking into foreign involvement after several Jewish sites were targeted with green paint in Paris on 30 and 31 May.⁹

For its part, the Baltic Sea was home to fresh tensions between Russia and European countries. On 14 May, a Russian fighter jet intercepted an Estonian military helicopter, preventing it from boarding an oil tanker believed to be part of Russia’s “shadow fleet,” used to circumvent sanctions on Russian oil.¹⁰ On 20 May, Russia responded to Estonia’s failed operation by briefly detaining a cargo ship that used a designated transit channel through Russian territorial waters to leave the Estonian port of Sillamäe.¹¹ The row follows a string of events since late 2024, where tankers allegedly linked to Russia have been involved in damaging fiber optic and power cables in the Baltic Sea. Estonia also reported a continuing dispute with Russia on buoys demarcating their shared border on the Narva river and blames Russia for stealing marine research buoys.¹²

For more information on suspected Russian activity across Europe, see ACLED’s latest report Testing the waters: Suspected Russian activity challenges Europe’s support for Ukraine.

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Russia: Waves of Ukrainian drones strike deep into Russia

Ukraine carried out several waves of drone attacks deep into Russian territory in May. On 2 and 3 May, a wave of nearly 100 drones swarmed Russia, focusing on the country’s southern regions and reportedly aimed at targeting naval infrastructure.¹³ While no damage to naval facilities was confirmed, a Ukrainian naval drone downed a Russian fighter jet over the Black Sea on 3 May, in the first recorded event of its kind in modern warfare.¹⁴

Between 6 and 8 May, Ukrainian forces sent new barrages of drones, likely aimed at disrupting the Victory Day parade in Moscow on 9 May and dissuading attendance at the event. Russia claimed to have intercepted over 300 drones, although some hit an airfield in the Moscow region and others a military plant in Saransk in the Mordovia republic. The drones led to the temporary suspension of operations at some Russian airports,¹⁵ which complicated the travel of several foreign leaders attending the parade.¹⁶ Ukraine ramped up its attacks again after 21 May, likely in retaliation for large Russian drone strikes on 18 and 25 May (see the Ukraine section below).¹⁷ Aside from the border regions of Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk, strikes were reported in 11 regions of Russia, and hit several industrial facilities, including three drone and missile plants, a battery plant, and two chemical plants. The strikes preceded a series of drone attacks on four military airfields in the Ryazan, Murmansk, Ivanovo, and Irkutsk regions on 1 June that may have destroyed a dozen Russian bomber and surveillance jets.¹⁸

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Spain: A former Yanukovych associate gunned down near Madrid

On 21 May, unidentified gunmen shot dead pro-Russian Ukrainian exile Andriy Portnov outside a private school in a Madrid suburb. Portnov served as deputy chief of staff to Ukraine’s former President Viktor Yanukovych, who lives in Russia after his ouster in February 2014. He is believed to have interfered with the Ukrainian judiciary and masterminded legislation aiming to suppress the Euromaidan unrest in early 2014,¹⁹ which Russia used as a pretext to annex Crimea and covertly invade the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The motive for the attack remains unclear. Despite a recent spate of assassinations of prominent pro-Russia Ukrainians carried out or instigated by Ukrainian special services, in addition to the targeting of Russian top military and defense industry figures, Ukraine denied involvement, suggesting a Russian false flag operation. Reports suggest that Portnov’s debt issues may have also played a role.²⁰

The killing is the latest of several high-profile events that have taken place in Spain since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. On 11 February 2024, unidentified perpetrators killed Maxim Kuzminov — a former Russian helicopter pilot who defected to Ukraine on 9 August 2023 and lived under a false identity in Valencia province. Spanish intelligence services posited then that the Russian government may have hired contracted assassins. Further suspected hostile Russian activities in Spain included at least six flammable parcels sent in late 2023 to Spanish government officials, an arms producer, and Ukrainian and US diplomats posted to the country. Furthermore, likely Russia-linked arsonists set ablaze a warehouse owned by a private Ukrainian company near Madrid on 30 March 2024, shortly after the company’s other facility in east London caught fire. In addition, in July 2024, Spanish police arrested three Spanish nationals suspected of carrying out cyberattacks in coordination with the pro-Russian hacking group NoName057(16) targeting the websites of Spanish defense, interior, and foreign ministries, as well as two defense companies and the Bank of Spain.

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Ukraine: Russia intensifies offensives amid renewed peace talks

Following failed indirect ceasefire negotiations and Russia’s continued refusal to commit to an unconditional 30-day ceasefire, Ukraine and Russia held their first in-person meeting since 2022 on 16 May in Turkey. Earlier, Ukraine rejected Russia’s unilateral ceasefire from 8 to 11 May, which Moscow likely sought to improve security during its Victory Day parade on 9 May. The talks in Istanbul led to one of the largest prisoner exchanges between the two countries,²¹ but they failed to lead to a ceasefire or any other agreement on the battlefield, as Russia refused to budge on its maximalist demands. Russia insists that Ukraine give up the entirety of the five regions of Crimea, Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhia, including parts currently controlled by Ukraine, under threat of a prolonged war.²² Despite limited progress, the delegations continued talks in June.²³

On the ground, Russia increased military pressure on Ukraine. Russia launched record-high barrages of 273 drones on 18 May,²⁴ 367 drones and missiles on 25 May,²⁵ and 472 drones on 31 May.²⁶ It also intensified strikes on Kyiv city and the surrounding region. Meanwhile, Russia continued to press Ukrainian defensive positions on the frontlines. ACLED records an upward trend in the number of armed clash events in Ukraine since February, with Ukrainian military analysts confirming a sizable increase in Russian daily attacks in May compared to April.²⁷ Grinding battles in the Donetsk region in May led to Russian advances in all key directions, with Russian troops seizing nearly a dozen settlements and reportedly briefly entering the Dnipropetrovsk region.²⁸ Russia also reportedly amassed tens of thousands of troops near the border with the Kharkiv and Sumy regions, threatening a large-scale summer offensive and prompting the evacuation of civilians.²⁹

For more information, see the ACLED Ukraine Conflict Monitor.

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Methodology

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