ACLED’s Ukraine Conflict Monitor provides near real-time information on the ongoing war, including an interactive map of the latest data from the start of Russia’s invasion, a curated data file, and weekly situation updates. It is designed to help researchers, policymakers, media, and the wider public track key conflict developments in Ukraine. It is released every Wednesday, with data covering events from Saturday to Friday of the preceding week and providing updates to past events as new or better information becomes available.
Due to the methodological limitations of event-based data collection, in addition to the broader challenges around fatality reporting in fast-moving conflict contexts like Ukraine, fatality estimates in the ACLED dataset pertain specifically to those fatalities reported in connection with distinct events that meet ACLED’s catchment and minimum threshold for inclusion (i.e. date, location, and actor information). This means that aggregate tallies provided by sources such as hospitals and government agencies, for example, which cannot be broken down and connected to individual conflict incidents, are not included in the ACLED dataset. ACLED fatality numbers are conservative event-based estimates, and the full death toll in such contexts is likely higher than the number of reported fatalities currently attributed to the type of distinct incidents that can be captured in the dataset. For these reasons, the Monitor will not be providing regular fatality estimate updates at this time.1Tracking fatalities is one of the most difficult aspects of conflict data collection in general, as fatality counts are frequently the most biased, inconsistent, and poorly documented components of conflict reporting, and this is especially true of active conflict environments impacted by high levels of mis/disinformation and severe access constraints. ACLED defaults to conservative estimates based on the best available information at the time of coding in line with our specific event-based methodology and review process. ACLED estimates are restricted to fatalities reported during individual events, meaning that these estimates may be particularly conservative in comparison with sources that do not use an event-based methodology. When and where possible, ACLED researchers seek out information to triangulate the numbers from any report, but we do not independently verify fatalities. ACLED is also a ‘living dataset’, so all fatality figures are revised and corrected — upward or downward — if new or better information becomes available (which, in some conflict contexts, can be months or years after an event has taken place). These figures should therefore be understood as indicative estimates rather than definitive fatality counts (for more on ACLED’s approach to coding fatalities, see FAQs: ACLED Fatality Methodology). ACLED additionally only captures fatalities that are directly caused by political violence; indirect conflict-related fatalities caused by disease or starvation, for example, are not included in these estimates. Other sources may come to different figures due to differing methodologies and catchments.
Ukraine Conflict Situation Update:
3 – 9 August 2024
On 6 August, Ukrainian forces launched an incursion from the Sumy region into Russia’s Kursk region, meeting little resistance from border guards and small military units deployed there. As of 9 August, Ukrainian forces advanced over 10 kilometers inside Russia2Jaroslav Lukiv, James Waterhouse, ‘Ukraine’s cross-border attack into Russia enters fifth day,’ BBC, 10 August 2024 and seized over 20 settlements, including the town of Sudzha. Unlike previous incursions led by Russian volunteer units, regular Ukrainian forces have crossed into the Kursk region. While the specific operational aims of the offensive remain unclear, it could aim to divert Russian troops from hotspots in Ukraine and boost Ukrainian forces’ morale amid the ongoing Russian advances in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. However, it has also led to increased Russian shelling and airstrikes on the Sumy region, which reached levels last recorded during the escalation in early May 2024.
In the meantime, Russian forces continued their advances in the directions of Pokrovsk and Toretsk in the Donetsk region, seizing an additional two villages. Heavy fighting also continued in the direction of Kupiansk and near Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region, and near Robotyne in the Zaporizhia region. Meanwhile, in Crimea, a Ukrainian naval drone destroyed a Russian patrol boat near Chornomorske. Ukrainian forces also raided Russian positions on the Kinburn and Tedrivska Spits in the Mykolaiv and Kherson regions, respectively, destroying Russian military equipment and reportedly killing at least 30 Russian servicemen.
Russian shelling, drones, and airstrikes killed at least 30 civilians in the Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhia, and Sumy regions. On 9 August, a Russian missile struck a supermarket in Kostiantynivka, Donetsk, killing 14 civilians, including three children, and injuring 44 others. Russian forces also shelled the city the same day, damaging residential houses, a postal office, stores, and other civilian infrastructure. Separately, on 7 August, a pro-government Belarusian organization deported 43 Ukrainian children from the occupied Donetsk region to Belarus. Both Russia and Belarus have been systematically displacing thousands of Ukrainian children since February 20223Khoshnood, Kaveh, Nathaniel A. Raymond and Caitlin N. Howarth et al., ‘Belarus’ Collaboration with Russia in the Systematic Deportation of Ukraine’s Children,’ Humanitarian Research Lab at Yale School of Public Health, 16 November 2023, with many subjected to reeducation, placed in adoptive families, and unable to return to their home country.
For previous situation updates and infographics, click here.
Interactive Ukraine Conflict Map
This dashboard includes political violence events in Ukraine since the start of the Russian invasion on 24 February 2022. By default, the map displays data for the most recent week. Use the filters on the left to analyze trends in more detail.
Timeline of Key Events
This timeline provides a concise list of key military and strategic developments as well as most notable instances of violence against civilians in Ukraine since Russia’s all-out invasion in February 2022
FEATURED | Posted: 22 Feb 2024
Still Under Fire: The Evolving Fate of Civilians in Ukraine
While battle lines changed only slightly in the second year of the war, ACLED data suggest that civilians continue to be exposed to an extremely high and persistent risk of violence. Seemingly static frontlines and falling civilian fatality numbers do not translate into the war being frozen.
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Curated Data
This file contains all political violence events, demonstration events, and strategic developments recorded in Ukraine and the Black Sea from the beginning of ACLED coverage in 2018 to the present.
For an overview, see our interactive dashboard.
Ukraine & the Black Sea ( 09 August 2024 )
Information & Analysis
For additional information on the conflict in Ukraine, check our analysis of political violence trends from the start of ACLED coverage in 2018.
Previous Weekly Situation Updates
