Regional Overview
Middle East
May 2023

Posted: 8 June 2023

Iran: Outbreak of tensions at Iran’s eastern border area

In Iran, there was an uptick in violence along the country’s eastern borders with Pakistan and Afghanistan. On 20 May, at least five Iranian border guards were killed in an attack on a guard tower in Saravan country, Sistan and Baluchistan province. No group has yet claimed responsibility, but Iranian authorities blamed the Jaysh a-Adl Baluchi separatist group for the attack, indicating that the militants retreated to Pakistan following the incident. In recent months, Iran has carried out mass arrests¹ and large-scale weapon seizures in Sistan and Baluchistan province,² and claimed to have thwarted a “terrorist” attack by the Sunni Baluch militants in Mashhad.³ The separatist group and its predecessor, Jundallah, have engaged in an armed insurgency against the Iranian government for two decades.

Meanwhile, deadly clashes broke out between Iranian and Taliban forces on 27 May, leading to at least three reported fatalities on both sides. While Iran and the Taliban have established relatively cordial ties in recent years, border skirmishes have sporadically erupted since the group’s seizure of power in Afghanistan in August 2021. The latest incident came amid rising political tensions between Iran and Afghanistan over a long-standing water dispute related to Iran’s access to Helmand River water, which Iran accuses the Taliban of obstructing through an upstream dam.⁴

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Israel & Palestine: Mounting hostilities between Israel and PIJ

A violent escalation was recorded in Israel and the Gaza Strip in May compared to the previous month. Political violence increased by 160% and 460%, respectively, compared to the levels recorded in April. After the death of a prominent political prisoner affiliated with Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) on 2 May, Palestinian militants fired scores of rockets into Israel in the first week of May. Israel retaliated with heavy airstrikes that killed over 30 Palestinians, including several high-ranking PIJ commanders. Hostilities continued with renewed Palestinian rocket attacks into Israel that killed two people, before Egypt mediated a ceasefire on 13 May. The latest flare-up marks the second round of heightened violence between Gazan militants and the Israel Defense Forces in recent months, where Hamas has been largely absent, leaving the fighting to PIJ. Hamas, the de facto civilian government in Gaza, is likely aware of public opinion and general fatigue among Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, who are still reeling from the May 2021 hostilities.⁵

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Syria: HTS detains dozens of Hizb al-Tahrir members in northwestern Syria

In Syria, Haia Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched an arrest campaign against members of Hizb al-Tahrir in Idleb and Aleppo provinces. The detention of 18 members in Deyr Hassan village in Idleb triggered clashes between HTS and Hizb al-Tahrir, resulting in the death of a HTS fighter. The campaign also resulted in widespread protests in Idleb and Aleppo provinces denouncing HTS and calling for the release of detainees. The campaign against Hizb al-Tahrir – which is part of a transnational Islamist movement that seeks to revive the Islamic Caliphate – is part of HTS’s long-term strategy to subdue other Islamist groups present in the territories under its control and seek its removal from international terrorist listings.⁶ The arrests come several days after the United States Department of the Treasury and Turkish authorities imposed terrorism-related sanctions on Umar al-Shaykh, an HTS leader and the supervisor of the group’s economic portfolio abroad.⁷

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Turkey: Uptick in mob violence during the presidential election

Incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) alliance was re-elected as Turkey’s leader on 28 May, defeating the opposition coalition led by his rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu. While many polls had suggested Kilicdaroglu to be the front-runner, Erdogan secured the highest number of votes in the first round, though the election went to run-offs as no candidate surpassed the minimum 50% threshold. There were no serious incidents of electoral fraud or irregularities, but many observers note that Erdogan’s grip over state institutions and media, and the record public spending spree in recent months had already handed him significant political advantages in the run-up to the elections.⁸ Amid the elections, political violence increased by over three times in May compared to the month prior, with ACLED recording over 60 instances of election-related political violence. Over 80% of the violence was targeted at opposition parties, which led to one fatality when AKP supporters celebrating the election results stabbed a Good Party (IYI) member in Gulyali on 28 May. Supporters of the ruling party were also targeted in a handful of events, including a stabbing incident reported at an election office in Seyhan on 4 May which left one AKP staff member injured.

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Yemen: AQAP claims drone attacks for the first time

In Yemen, political violence involving al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) significantly increased in May, reaching the highest monthly level since November 2022. In Abyan governorate, a military campaign led by forces from the secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC) targeted AQAP in al-Mahfad district, where they claim to have cleared AQAP hideouts in the Wadi Khayala region.⁹ AQAP subsequently shifted its focus to the neighboring Shabwa governorate, claiming for the first time to have targeted STC forces with drones on several occasions. This marks a significant shift in AQAP’s tactics and capabilities, which, according to some sources, is the direct result of the group’s collaboration with Houthi forces. ¹⁰Following the Houthis’ ouster of the internationally recognized government from Sanaa in 2014, Yemen spiraled into a civil war that has been exploited by AQAP to expand its influence (for more on AQAP activity in Yemen in recent years, see this ACLED report).

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Methodology

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