Regional Overview
Middle East
September 2023

Iran: Quiet first anniversary of the Mahsa Amini protest movement

The first anniversary of the anti-government demonstrations that erupted after the death of Iranian-Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini in morality police custody on 16 September 2022 coincided with no recorded increase in demonstration numbers in Iran. Nonetheless, the Iranian government deployed large numbers of police and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) forces in the country’s major cities and across the Kurdish-majority provinces in anticipation of potential unrest. Despite no overall increase in demonstrations, violent demonstrations were reported in Sistan and Baluchistan province around the first anniversary of the ‘Bloody Friday’ events on 30 September, when nearly 100 Baluchs were killed during unrest following Amini’s death and the reported rape of a Baluch girl by a police officer. In violent clashes between demonstrators and security forces on 29 September, nearly 30 people were reportedly injured and over 50 were detained.¹Voice of America, ‘Rights Activists Count More Detainees From Iran’s ‘Bloody Friday’ Anniversary,’ 30 September 2023 Baluchs have continued to stage weekly demonstrations after the Friday prayer in Zahedan since last year, calling for justice for the victims of Bloody Friday.

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Iraq: KDP Peshmerga attacks the PKK amid strengthening ties with Turkey

In a rare direct confrontation, Peshmerga forces of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) – the leading party of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) – attacked positions of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in Erbil and Dahuk governorates on 14 September. The clashes come after a visit by the Turkish Foreign Minister to Iraq in August, during which he met with KRG officials to discuss strengthening security measures against the PKK.²Yerevan Saeed, ‘Trilateral Agreement Necessary to Resolve Turkey-Iraq Oil Dispute,’ The Arab Gulf States Institute in Wasington, 22 September 2023 The KDP has cordial ties with Ankara, and has previously coordinated with Turkey in intelligence gathering and securing areas that Turkish military forces have cleared of PKK militants.³Berkay Mandiraci, ‘Turkey’s PKK Conflict: A Regional Battleground in Flux,’ International Crisis Group,’ 18 February 2022 The KDP and PKK have a historically fraught relationship, having fought against each other during the intra-Kurdish civil war in the 1990s. Despite sporadic confrontations in recent years, renewed full-fledged hostilities between the Kurdish groups remain unlikely in the near future.

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Palestine: Wave of violent demonstrations along the Gaza-Israel border

Mass demonstrations erupted in the Gaza Strip along the border with Israel against Israeli military operations targeting Palestinian militants in the West Bank. With at least 45 recorded events, September marked the highest number of violent demonstrations in the coastal enclave since the Great March of Return demonstration wave in 2019. Demonstrators threw stones and set tires on fire during clashes with Israeli soldiers along the border. Meanwhile, unidentified militants threw grenades towards the border fence and launched incendiary balloons into Israel. At least one demonstrator was killed during the unrest. Israel responded with airstrikes against Hamas targets, although it is reported that only abandoned Hamas outposts were targeted to prevent a serious spiral of violence.⁴Associated Press, ‘Israel strikes militant sites in Gaza as unrest continues, no casualties,’ 26 September 2023 Experts suggest that the demonstrations may have been staged with Hamas’ tactical support to put pressure on Israel and Qatar for financial concessions.⁵Issam Adwan, ‘Israel reopens the main Gaza crossing for Palestinian laborers after days of rising tensions,’ Washington Post, 28 September 2023 In recent months, Hamas has been reported to be facing financial difficulties and is unable to pay the salaries of the public sector.⁶The New Arab, ‘Hamas unable to pay Gaza public sector salaries amid growing ‘financial difficulties,’ 16 July 2023

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Syria: Widespread clashes between QSD and tribal militias

Long-standing tensions between the Syrian Democratic Forces (QSD) and various Arab tribal forces – including the QSD affiliate Dayr al-Zawr Military Council (DMC) – escalated into widespread clashes across eastern Dayr al-Zawr following the arrest of DMC leader Abu Khawla on 27 August. The QSD stated that Khawla was arrested on allegations of corruption and sexual violence.⁷Hassan Hassan and Omar Abu Layla, ‘Assad’s Hidden Hand in the Uprising Against the Kurds in Eastern Syria,’ New Lines Magazine, 4 September 2023 However, political motives may be behind the arrest since Abu Khawla – an Arab leader – is viewed as a potential threat to the dominant Kurdish-led QSD presence in the region. Clashes initially erupted between QSD and Abu Khawla’s supporters but then expanded to include other tribal forces. Hostilities temporarily subsided after the first week of September but then resumed on 25 September in and around Mayadin district. As a result, September marked the highest number of political violence events recorded in Dayr al-Zawr governorate since 2019. Poor governance, lack of services, and ethnic tensions remain key anti-QSD grievances in the region since its liberation from the Islamic State.⁸Amer Mohamad, ‘After an uprising and violent crackdown, Syria’s Deir ez-Zor is at a critical juncture,’ Middle East Institute, 14 September 2023

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Yemen: Houthis resume cross-border attacks on Saudi Arabia amid truce negotiations

On 25 September, Houthi forces conducted their first confirmed cross-border attack on Saudi Arabia since March 2022, with a drone strike that killed four Bahraini soldiers patrolling the Saudi-Yemeni border. After the incident, both sides raised accusations of other recent, previously unreported, cross-border attacks.⁹Aziz El Yaakoubi, ‘Yemen flare-ups jeopardise peace negotiations,’ Reuters, 26 September 2023 The violence comes despite renewed momentum around truce negotiations in September, following  diplomatic inertia over most of the summer. On 14 September, an official Houthi delegation traveled to Riyadh for the first time in a visit that was hailed by Saudi officials for its “positive results.”¹⁰Jon Gambrell, ‘Saudi Arabia praises ‘positive results’ after Yemen’s Houthi rebels visit kingdom for peace talks’, Associated Press, 20 September 2023 Both Bahraini and Saudi officials have hinted at rogue Houthi elements being behind the recent attack, leaving the door open to continued negotiations with Houthi officials.¹¹Hudhaifa Ebrahim, ‘Drone attack in Saudi Arabia kills 3 Bahraini soldiers, upending UN-brokered Yemen truce,’ Jerusalem Post, 28 September 2023 Although the six-month United Nations-mediated truce was not renewed in October 2022, large-scale hostilities have not resumed in Yemen, with conflict parties continuing to engage in diplomacy toward a political solution.

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