Regional Overview
Latin America & the Caribbean
October 2023

Argentina: Sergio Massa and Javier Milei head to a runoff

On 22 October, Economy Minister Sergio Massa, running with the Peronist center-left Unión por la Patria (UP), defied expectations by winning 36% of the votes in the polarized presidential election’s first round. This result sets up a runoff with far-right candidate Javier Milei, who garnered 30% of the vote, scheduled for 19 November.¹BBC News Mundo, ‘Elecciones en Argentina: el “superministro” centrista Sergio Massa y el libertario Javier Milei se disputarán la presidencia en segunda vuelta,’ 23 October 2023 Social actors and Massa’s opponents have notably criticized him for failing to stem Argentina’s economic crisis, with inflation at nearly 140%.²Mar Centenera, ‘La inflación argentina se sale de control y se acerca al 140% interanual,’ El País, 12 October 2023 Meanwhile, Milei’s libertarian agenda promoting drastic cuts to public spending has appealed to voters in search of an alternative to Argentina’s two-coalition model. However, some of his controversial proposals sparked opposition from various sectors of society in the months leading up to the vote.³Laura Vales, ‘La izquierda se moviliza contra el ajuste y el avance de Milei,’ Página 12, 14 September 2023; La Voz, ‘Río Cuarto: la presidenta de la FUA llamó a movilizarse contra las propuestas educativas de Milei,’ 10 October 2023; Constanza Lambertucci, ‘El feminismo argentino se moviliza contra Javier Milei,’ El País, 28 September 2023

Argentina’s presidential race takes place against the backdrop of an acute economic crisis. In 2023, demands related to economic hardship and job security have mobilized the population, including social organizations affiliated with the Piquetero Unit, which have showcased their mobilizing power and capacity for disruption through roadblocks.⁴Página 12, ‘La Unidad Piquetera vuelve a cortar las calles,’ 4 July 2023 Although demonstrations have decreased between January and October 2023 compared to years prior, the 13% increase in violent or destructive demonstrations compared to 2022 reflects the use of roadblocks and flaming barricades as a collective action tactic.⁵Infobae, ‘Javier Milei: “Nosotros estamos dispuestos a meter a los piqueteros presos”,’ 21 June 2023; Infobae, ‘Un diputado de Javier Milei lanzó el “movimiento antipiquetero”: militancia digital y denuncias a dirigentes sociales,’ 29 March 2022 The winner of the runoff will face the daunting task of unifying Argentina’s polarized society. The anticipated inability of the future president to curb Argentina’s economic crisis and unpopular reforms could generate an escalation of demonstrations. Similarly, the response to mobilization could also impact the magnitude of demonstrations. While Massa stated that state forces should only be deployed to repress demonstrations as a last resort, Mileil has hinted that he could criminalize the use of roadblocks as a collective action tactic, echoing similar reforms to the Constitution of the Jujuy Province. 

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Brazil: Arson attacks stun Rio’s West Zone amid surging violence

On 23 October, the police militia led by Luís Antônio Braga da Silva, also known as Zinho, set fire to at least 35 buses in Rio de Janeiro in response to the killing of Zinho’s nephew and militia leader in a police operation. The unrest led to a partial paralysis of activities in the West Zone of the city, highlighting the militia’s influence over the area. These attacks reflect growing violence in Rio’s West Zone driven by territorial disputes between militias and drug gangs that have sought control over the area.⁶Amanda Audi, ‘High-profile triple murder draws attention to rising violence in Rio,’ The Brazilian Report, 6 October 2023; Wilson Tosta, ‘Narcomilícias no Rio: os fatores que acirram a disputa na zona oeste da cidade,’ BBC News Brasil, 23 October 2023 Such turf wars also led to the killing of three doctors on 5 October in the upper-class Barra de Tijuca neighborhood in Rio’s West Zone, after the Red Command confused one of the victims for a militia member. Between January and October 2023, violence involving police militias and drug trafficking groups in Rio de Janeiro’s West Zone increased by over 60% compared to the same period in 2022. While police militias originally formed as self-defense forces in impoverished neighborhoods in response to drug trafficking groups, they have since evolved into criminal enterprises involved in illicit activities that regulate civilians’ lives in neighborhoods under their control.⁷Mariana Tokarnia, ‘Restrições impostas pela milícia no Rio vão de água a convívio social,’ Agência Brasil, 24 october 2023 

The arson attacks further prompted the government to announce the strengthening of security at ports and airports in Rio de Janeiro and Sāo Paulo and the involvement of federal and military forces to fight organized crime.⁸Diane Jeantet, ‘Brazil to militarize key airports, ports and borders in a crackdown on organized crime,’ Associated Press, 2 November 2023 The success of the security plan, however, remains uncertain amid questions about the distribution of responsibility and collaboration between federal and local security forces.⁹José Marques and Cézar Feitoza, ‘Governo patina para definir atuação de militares na segurança do Rio de Janeiro,’ Folha de S. Paulo, 30 October 2023

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Ecuador: Unknown perpetrators kill hitmen arrested for Villavicencio’s assassination

On 15 October, businessman Daniel Noboa won Ecuador’s snap presidential election following a campaign centered around security amid rising organized crime activity and violence (for more, see The Killing of Villavicencio: A Symptom of Rising Political Violence Ahead of Ecuador’s Snap Elections). His victory comes a little over a week after unidentified perpetrators killed six inmates linked to the assassination of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio in a prison in Guayaquil. Although the perpetrators of the killing remain unknown, some speculate that the attack could have been part of gang rivalry or an attempt to silence key witnesses in Villavicencio’s assassination.¹⁰Juan Diego Quesada, ‘Colombian hitmen who killed presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio murdered in an Ecuadorian prison,’ El País, 7 October 2023 The incident is symptomatic of the crisis in the country’s penitentiary system, home to increasingly deadly violence. It also points to the pervasiveness of criminal groups within state institutions, illustrated by the government’s decision to press negligence charges against the prison’s director.¹¹Juan Diego Quesada, ‘Purge begins of Ecuador’s police leadership after seven men implicated in the assassination of Fernando Villavicencio were murdered in prison,’ El País, 9 October 2023 

In order to curb rising violence, Noboa has adopted an increasingly hardline stance against crime throughout his campaign, proposing a security plan relying on crime-fighting technology, the building of prison ships, and the militarization of security.¹²Anastasia Austin, ‘From Rhetoric to Reality on Ecuador’s Security Challenge,’ InSight Crime, 17 October 2023 The plan, however, could be too ambitious with Noboa’s mandate only lasting until May 2025. Its successful implementation will also depend on Noboa’s ability to form coalitions with other political forces to offset the Citizen’s Revolution Movement opposition block.

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Guatemala: Attorney-General’s alleged interference in election results sparks record demonstration levels

Pro-democracy demonstrations were held throughout October in Guatemala. These demonstrations were organized in response to attempts by Attorney-General Consuelo Porras and members of the Prosecutor’s Office to interfere with the victory of President-elect Bernardo Arévalo, notably through the suspension of his Semilla Movement for alleged irregularities.¹³BBC News Mundo, ‘Consuelo Porras, la polémica fiscal general de Guatemala a la que Bernardo Arévalo acusa de orquestar un “golpe de Estado” para evitar que asuma la presidencia,’ 2 October 2023 On 2 October, the Indigenous organization 48 Cantones de Totonicapán called for a national strike, rallying various organizations across the country. During the strike, demonstrators participated in roadblocks that lasted for 20 consecutive days until Indigenous authorities announced their end on 22 October, calling for continued demonstrations in Guatemala City outside of Porras’s office.¹⁴Deutsche Welle, ‘Levantan todos los bloqueos de carreteras en Guatemala,’ 23 October 2023 The mobilization drove a nine times increase in demonstrations in October compared to the previous month, reaching the highest recorded levels since ACLED began coverage in 2018. Tensions between demonstrators and opponents of the movement spilled over into violence, with several incidents involving residents and gunmen attacking demonstrators as they tried to pass the roadblocks. The violence culminated on 16 October in the San Marcos department when armed suspects attacked demonstrators in at least three roadblocks, leaving several injured and killing a man in Malacatán. Although the identity of the perpetrators remains unknown, police arrested 11 suspects, including private guards of a mayor-elect for the government party Vamos.¹⁵Evenlyn Boche Ventura, ‘El ataque de un comando armado contra manifestantes deja un muerto en Guatemala,’ El País, 17 October 2023

Although the courts ratified Arévalo’s victory — thus guaranteeing his inauguration in January 2024 — on 2 November, the Supreme Electoral Court’s Citizens Registry suspended the legal status of the Semilla Movement over alleged irregularities during its creation. The move will likely compromise party members’ access to positions it won during the elections and could fuel additional unrest.¹⁶Wilfredo Mirando, ‘La Justicia electoral de Guatemala suspende al Movimiento Semilla del presidente electo Bernardo Arévalo,’ El País, 2 November 2023

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Mexico: Civil servants targeted in Guerrero

In Guerrero state, armed suspects ambushed and killed 13 police officers, including the head of the municipal police in Coyuca Benitez. Authorities have raised the possibility that the attack could be linked to La Familia Michoacana criminal group’s expansion to new areas in Guerrero following the similar killing of a delegate of the General Attorney’s Office and a regional prosecutor in September.¹⁷Pablo Ferri, ‘Masacre en la costa de Guerrero: 13 agentes asesinados, entre ellos el jefe policial de Coyuca de Benítez, El País, 24 October 2023 The event takes place amid increasing violence targeting local officials in the state thus far in 2023 compared to the previous year, with targeted attacks between January and October 2023 surpassing levels recorded in all of 2022. The violence has concentrated in municipalities within and around the Tierra Caliente region — comprising municipalities in the Guerrero, Michoacán, and Mexico states — where La Familia Michoacana and several other criminal groups are fighting over the control of extortion and drug trafficking routes. In response to the violence, the State Attorney General’s Office of Guerrero suspended its activities in the Tierra Caliente for the safety of its staff.¹⁸Anayeli Tapia Sandoval, ‘Fiscalía de Guerrero suspende sus actividades en Tierra Caliente ante ola de violencia,’ Infobae, 24 October 2023 

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Panama: Demonstrators clash with police during mobilization against mining contract

The signing of a new mining contract between Panama’s government and the Canadian company First Quantum Minerals drove a spike in demonstrations, reaching the highest level recorded in 2023. Members of the Single Union of Construction and Associated Workers (SUNTRAC), other labor unions, and environmentalists have opposed the agreement, denouncing its negative environmental impact and claiming it undermines the country’s sovereignty.¹⁹Swiss Info, ‘El Parlamento de Panamá aprueba un polémico contrato minero con una subsidiaria canadiense,’ 20 October 2023 Demonstrations intensified after Congress ratified the agreement on 20 October, with events recorded across the country. In the Chiriquí, Colón, Panamá, West Panamá, and Veraguas provinces, rioters engaged in clashes with police forces, looted stores, and barricaded roads with burning tires. Police forces deployed tear gas and fired rubber bullets to disperse the demonstrators, while some reports suggest that officers also used firearms,²⁰EFE, ‘Las protestas contra la mayor mina a cielo abierto en Centroamérica no dan tregua en Panamá,’ 25 October 2023 leaving around 13 demonstrators injured and hundreds in police detention.²¹Ismael Gordón Guerrel, ‘Protestas en Panamá: 13 heridos y 127 detenidos en los últimos cuatro días,’ La Estrella de Panamá, 26 October 2023

In 2017, the Supreme Court ruled the previous mining agreement proposal unconstitutional due to its negative environmental impact, forcing the Canadian company to renegotiate with the government.²²Fabio Agrana, ‘Las protestas en Panamá contra el nuevo contrato minero, en 5 claves,’ Swiss Info, 27 October 2023 However, the government claims that the new contract offers better environmental guarantees and will lead to the creation of over 9,000 employment opportunities.²³Diario las Américas, ‘Presidente de Panamá insiste en defender contrato minero,’ 25 October 2023 Critics denounced the new agreement for having conditions similar to the previous one, and accused members of Congress who approved the contract of collusion with the company.²⁴La Vanguardia, ‘Parlamento de Panamá aprueba en segundo de tres debates la derogación del contrato minero,’ 2 November 2023 In response to the unrest, the President announced a referendum to decide the future of the mining contract and on 3 November, adopted a moratorium on new mining explorations.²⁵Reuters, ‘Panama electoral court rules out imminent referendum on First Quantum contract,’ 30 October 2023; AP News, ‘Panama president signs into law a moratorium on new mining concessions. A Canadian mine is untouched,’ 3 November 2023 

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