Regional Overview
Europe & Central Asia
December 2023

Posted: 12 January 2024

Armenia-Azerbaijan: A peace deal possibly in sight

Borders between Armenia and Azerbaijan remained quiet throughout the month, with the exception of one instance of gunfire on 5 December, allegedly originating from Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan exclave, in which one Armenian serviceman was killed. Notwithstanding, on 7 December, Armenia and Azerbaijan issued a joint statement pledging to soon reach a peace agreement and normalize relations.¹ The statement appeared to have been agreed upon bilaterally rather than through external mediation, as the countries’ relations with Russia, the European Union, and the United States remain fraught. On 13 December, following up on good intentions gestures envisaged in the statement, Azerbaijan released 32 detained Armenian servicemen, while Armenia returned two Azerbaijani servicemen. The prisoner swap did not include Artsakh leadership detained by Azerbaijan in the aftermath of its forceful takeover of the enclave in September, which led to the exodus of its population to Armenia. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan’s longtime President Ilham Aliyev called a snap presidential election 15 months ahead of schedule amid an intensifying crackdown on independent journalists and opposition activists.²

Back to Map

Russia: Border regions come under increased fire

The spillover of the war against Ukraine into Russia’s internationally recognized territory reached a new high in December. On 30 December, in the wake of escalating drone and missile strikes targeting Ukraine’s capital and major cities, Ukrainian forces conducted drone and missile strikes on the European part of Russia, with border areas, especially in the Belgorod region, the most affected. In Belgorod city, 25 civilians (including five children) were killed and 109 others were wounded due to shelling — the highest civilian death toll since the beginning of Russia’s invasion. The mass casualty event revealed deficiencies in Russian air defense, which are seemingly geared to prevent Ukrainian drone strikes deep inside Russia, especially in areas close to Moscow. ACLED data indicates that drone interception rates may have improved since the summer, with only one Ukrainian drone reaching the capital city in the fall.

Back to Map

Serbia: Protests in Belgrade in the wake of contested elections

On 17 December, Serbia held yet another snap parliamentary election as well as local elections in the Vojvodina province and 65 localities across the country, including in Belgrade. Serbia’s President, Aleksandar Vučić, triggered the early election in response to recurrent demonstrations denouncing the media-fostered culture of violence that led to two mass shooting incidents in May. The ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) again secured a majority in parliament. It also won the Belgrade city council election by a small margin. The opposition alliance, Serbia Against Violence, rejected the result in Belgrade, alleging that the SNS bused in about 40,000 ethnic Serbs from neighboring countries with significant ethnic Serb populations, thus potentially skewing the vote in its favor.³ International observers noted that the elections were marred by irregularities, including media monopolization and pressure on voters by the incumbents, as well as the active involvement of President Vučić in campaigning on behalf of the SNS, although he formally stepped down from his leadership role mid-year.⁴

Subsequently, protests demanding a rerun of the elections erupted in downtown Belgrade, gathering thousands of participants and occasionally blocking thoroughfares. On 24 December, some participants attempted to break through a police cordon into the Belgrade city council building. President Vučić, seconded by Alexander Botsan-Kharchenko, Russia’s ambassador to Serbia, claimed the demonstrations involved foreign interference that aimed to destabilize the country.⁵ Western reaction to the elections has been muted,⁶ although Germany deemed the exercise below par for a country aspiring to join the European Union.⁷

Back to Map

Ukraine: Positional fighting amid intensifying strikes on Crimea and Kyiv

Russian forces continued pressing ahead with their offensive in eastern Ukraine throughout December, securing marginal but steady gains on the boundary between Kharkiv and Luhansk regions, as well as around Bakhmut and especially Avdiivka in the Donetsk region. On 26 December, Ukraine confirmed the loss of the destroyed town of Marinka west of Donetsk city.⁸ Marinka lies about 30 kilometers northeast of Vuhledar, which Russia failed to capture during its offensive in the previous winter.

While on the defensive across the frontline, Ukraine continued targeting Russian military assets on the Crimean Peninsula. On 23 December, a Ukrainian missile strike sank the Novocherkassk landing ship in the port of Feodosia, on Crimea’s eastern shore. The warship allegedly carried a batch of attack drones.⁹ Earlier, also challenging Russian advantage in the air, Ukrainian forces downed three Russian military jets in the Kherson region.

Throughout the month, Russia stepped up strikes on Kyiv city. Unlike in November, it increasingly relied on missiles rather than drones. Following the sinking of Novocherkassk, on 29 December, Russia launched an unusually high number of missiles directed at the capital and other major cities across Ukraine, killing 32 civilians in Kyiv city and two dozen others in Dnipro, Kharkiv, Lviv, Odesa, and Zaporizhia. Concerted strikes deep into Ukrainian territory continued into the new year.

For more information, see the ACLED Ukraine Conflict Monitor.

Back to Map

See more

Methodology

See the Codebook and the User Guide for an overview of ACLED’s core methodology. For additional documentation, check the Resource Library. Region-specific methodology briefs can be accessed below.

Links: