Past months have seen increasing attacks and fatalities in Abyei, a disputed province on the border of South Sudan and Sudan. Fighting has flared between the Twic Dinka and Ngok Dinka, who have previously clashed in 2022 and 2023 (see ACLED’s Sudan: Deadly Violence in the Disputed Abyei Area from March 2023). Disputes focus on problems of the location of a state border, local administration, and revenue capture in southern areas of Abyei and northern Twic county. Not only is Abyei an area of importance due to the continuing impacts of the conflict in Sudan but the latest violence suggests that this year will see new clashes as groups attack to gain control over territories before the election expected later this year.
These Abyei events place South Sudanese President Kiir and the central government in a difficult position. Kiir hails from Warrap, and from a Dinka subgroup. As he faces an election later in 2024, cannot afford to alienate this key constituency with a crackdown. He must weigh which populations to support in exchange for votes – despite their violence (e.g. the Twic Dinka of Warrap) – and whom to marginalize (the Ngok Dinka of Abyei). A presidential decree demanding disarmament has been ineffective, and largely allows the conflict to continue and diffuse. But continued intense communal fighting could halt an election in specific places, or risk the timeline of the general election.
Many of the attacks come from the south of Abyei in neighboring Warrap State. In December 2023, armed Twic Dinka youth (also known as Titweng) from Warrap State allied with forces of the spiritual leader Gen. Gai Machiek (from Unity state) and a leader of the South Sudan People’s Movement/Army (SSPM/A). The majority of those forces are from the Nuer ethnic community. These combined forces are attacking and clashing with the Ngok Dinka community at several villages in the Abyei disputed area.
In addition to the violence over February 2 and 3rd, the new round of violence has killed at least 136 people over two months. These attacks have not been met with any state force resistance, leaving the Ngok Dinka to defend themselves against a growing array of Titweng militias. Warrap state is the smallest and currently most unstable area in South Sudan.
There are also incidents of abductions targeting women and girls, looting and destruction of property, and demonstrations calling for better protection. The Twic county commissioner and Gen. Gai Machiek repeatedly denied that Twic youth and SSPM/A were involved in the attacks/or clashes.
Correction: an earlier version noted President Kiir was from the Twic Dinka subgroup. He is from a different Warrap state based Dinka subgroup
Visuals produced by Ana Marco and Christina De Paris
