Regional Overview
Middle East
March 2024

Gaza: UN Security Council calls for immediate ceasefire amid looming Israeli ground operation into Rafah

In March, the number of political violence events and reported fatalities decreased in the Gaza Strip compared to the month prior. In the north of Gaza, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) completed ground operations in al-Zaytun neighborhood by mid-March before launching a two-week campaign targeting al-Shifa hospital and its surrounding area in the Southern Rimal neighborhood of Gaza City. The IDF had previously taken control of the hospital in November 2023, destroying an underground tunnel network that it claimed was used by Hamas as a command center. Following the IDF’s withdrawal from the city in January, Hamas militants had regrouped and were allegedly operating from inside the hospital.¹Patrick Kingsley, ‘Israeli Army Withdraws From Major Gaza Hospital, Leaving Behind a Wasteland,’ New York Times, 2 April 2024 At least 12 armed clashes broke out across the campus during the second half of March, leading to the death of nearly 200 Palestinian militants. 

Meanwhile, in Gaza’s southern Khan Yunis governorate, clashes continued, though at reduced rates, in Hamad City, al-Qarara, Abasan al-Kabira, Amal neighborhood, and areas near the Nasser hospital. In Rafah, the IDF continued launching airstrikes, but an anticipated ground invasion did not begin amid intense international pressure — most importantly from the US, which chose not to veto a Gaza ceasefire resolution at the United Nations on 25 March.²Nadeen Ebrahim and Abbas Al Lawati, ‘The US allowed a Gaza ceasefire resolution to pass at the UN. What does that mean for the war?, CNN, 27 March 2024 While Israeli officials insist that the IDF remains determined to invade Rafah,³Times of Israel, ‘Netanyahu maintains IDF will enter Rafah despite international pressure,’ 14 March 2024 where Hamas still has four battalions,⁴Associated Press, ‘Why Israel is so determined to launch an offensive in Rafah,’ 21 March 2024 the timing and intensity of the operation may yet be influenced by diplomatic efforts. Truce talks between Israel and Hamas resumed in Cairo in early April, in the latest attempt to bring a pause to nearly six months of war in Gaza.

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Iraq: Tribal violence in southern Iraq  

In March, tribal violence reintensified in the southern provinces of Thi Qar, al-Basra, and Maysan following a lull in activity in February. In Thi Qar province, deadly tribal clashes between al-Rumaid and al-Omari tribes on 3 March led to the death of the head of the province’s intelligence and counter-terrorism unit following an intervention by security forces. Iraqi security forces clashed with militants from the involved tribes and arrested 123 individuals. The arrests triggered subsequent protests demanding their release. The same warring tribes have been in conflict since April 2023, resulting in dozens of casualties and approximately 115 families displaced,⁵Al-Quds Al-Arabi, ‘Dhi Qar: A tribal conflict causes the displacement of 115 families,’ 29 September 2023 despite reaching a truce mediated by prominent religious leader Ali al-Sistani in October 2023.⁶Staff, ‘Al Omar and Al-Rumaid respond to Al-Sistani’s mediation after a bloody dispute for months,’ Almada Paper,  3 October 2023 In addition to Thi Qar, at least three were wounded in tribally motivated clashes and attacks on civilians reportedly left five people dead in al-Basra and Maysan provinces.

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Lebanon and Syria: Israel escalates its campaign against Hezbollah

Fears over the Israel and Hamas conflict spilling over into a broader regional war continue to run high. While attacks and counter-attacks involving United States forces in Iraq and Syria nearly ceased in March, hostilities between Israel and Iran-backed members of the ‘axis of resistance’ in Syria and Lebanon continued to escalate. On 29 March, the IDF conducted its deadliest attack in Syria in years, hitting multiple targets, including a Hezbollah rocket depot in Aleppo. The airstrikes reportedly left 36 regime soldiers, seven Hezbollah fighters, and another three pro-Iran militants dead. Israel has carried out hundreds of strikes on targets in government-controlled areas in Syria in recent years, but its military campaign against Iran-backed groups has intensified since 7 October and may now be increasingly focusing on Hezbollah and its assets.

Hezbollah and Israel have engaged in daily exchanges of fire along the Israeli-Lebanese border in the past six months. The IDF killed at least two senior commanders of Hezbollah’s anti-tank missile unit in drone strikes on 29 and 31 March in southern Lebanon. On 11 and 12 March, Israeli jets conducted several airstrikes deep inside Lebanon, while on 26 March, Hezbollah positions were targeted in northeastern Lebanon near Ras Baalbek and Hermel. These events mark the deepest raids inside Lebanon since the October hostilities broke out. In a recent interview, Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant suggested that the IDF was expanding its campaign against Hezbollah and “turning from defending to pursuing” the Lebanese Shiite group.⁷Emanuel Fabian, ‘ Hinting at Syria strikes, Gallant says Israel will “expand the campaign” against Hezbollah,’ Times of Israel, 29 March 2024

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Syria: Protests break out in rebel-held areas

In northwestern Syria, growing public anger toward Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) triggered more than 80 protests in at least 28 towns and villages across rebel-held areas in Idleb and Aleppo provinces in March. The protesters denounced HTS and demanded its leader, Muhammad al-Jawlani, be overthrown. The protests were sparked by the torture and killing of a member of the Jaysh al-Ahrar opposition group in an HTS prison on 24 February. The arrest and killing of the fighter was part of an HTS campaign to crack down on alleged collaborators with the Syrian regime and foreign entities. HTS launched the campaign last year, arbitrarily detaining and disappearing hundreds of civilians and fighters, including commanders of HTS. HTS, formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra, is the largest Sunni Islamist political and militant group operating in northwestern Syria. Since 2020, the group has controlled the rebel-held areas in Idleb, which is home to more than 3 million people — the majority of whom are displaced from other parts of Syria. The group also operates in parts of Aleppo’s western countryside, the Lattakia mountains, and al-Ghab Plain in northwestern Hama.

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Yemen: Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden lead to their first fatalities

The increased intensity of Houthi maritime attacks in the second half of February continued into March. On 6 March, Houthi attacks led to their first fatalities, killing three crew members of the True Confidence bulk carrier in the Gulf of Aden. This was followed by the largest swarm attack against US warships to date on 9 March, with Houthi forces claiming to have launched 37 drones at US warships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.⁸X @army21ye, 9 March 2024The US claimed that a total of 28 drones were shot down in the two waterways,⁹X @CENTCOM, 9 March 2024 in an engagement that involved the British, Danish, French, and US navies. Throughout the month, Houthi attacks were also intercepted by the German, Greek, and Italian navies, evidence of increased European Union engagement following the launch of Operation Aspides in February.

In the second half of March, Houthi attacks saw a notable decline, despite the Houthi leadership vowing to extend attacks to the Indian Ocean and threatening traffic through the Cape of Good Hope on 14 March.¹⁰Reuters, ‘Leader of Yemen’s Houthis vows to attack more shipping lanes,’ 14 March 2024 Almost two-thirds of Houthi maritime attacks for the whole month were recorded between 1 and 15 March. This decline also coincided with a drop in US strikes on Houthi weaponry and associated infrastructure inside Yemen, possibly indicating that the Houthi arsenal is depleting or that back-channel talks are taking place. 

For more, see the Red Sea attacks interactive map as part of the Yemen Conflict Observatory.

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