Situation Update | April 2024

Kenya: Kenyan Security Forces Combating al-Shabaab, Pastoralist Militias, and Mob Violence

19 April 2024

Kenya at a Glance: 16 March to 12 April 2024

VITAL TRENDS

From 16 March to 12 April 2024, ACLED records 84 political violence events and 61 reported fatalities in Kenya. Most events took place in Baringo, with 12 political violence events.
Lamu and Baringo counties had the highest number of reported fatalities, with 18 and five fatalities, respectively.
The most common event types during the reporting period were riots, with 39 recorded events, followed by violence against civilians, with 22 recorded events. The majority of riots were recorded in Trans Nzoia.

Kenyan Security Forces Combating al-Shabaab, Pastoralist Militias, and Mob Violence

Violence perpetrated by al-Shabaab and pastoralist militias continues to bring insecurity to the northern and southeastern parts of Kenya. In response, the Kenyan government announced the establishment of new military command centers to address insecurity. However, security forces have not earned the full trust of the population, which hampers their efforts to uproot armed groups and criminal gangs.¹ Recent incidents of mob violence against on-duty police officers reflect citizens’ mixed perceptions of the forces’ role and general engagement.

Increase in al-Shabaab Activities

The second day of April marked the ninth anniversary of the al-Shabaab attack at the University of Garissa that killed more than 140 students in 2015.² The remembrance of the attack, one of the deadliest in the country — only behind al-Qaeda’s bombing of the US embassy in Nairobi in 1998 — comes amid a period of increased activity by al-Shabaab, especially in Mandera and Lamu counties. In Mandera, events doubled in March in comparison to February, while in Lamu, events tripled during the same period. Overall, ACLED records double the number of political violence events involving al-Shabaab in March compared to the same month last year, and the highest number since October 2023 (see graph below).

Operations targeting al-Shabaab’s bases in counties near the Kenya-Somalia border — Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, and Lamu counties — account for part of the recorded events, as the Kenyan government continues its efforts to contain the group’s activities.³ Still, al-Shabaab’s road ambushes and attacks against Kenya’s security forces and bases make up the majority of events recorded. Al-Shabaab’s activities in Kenya are linked to Somalia’s counter-insurgency operations, as well as the group’s commitment to targeting Kenyan security forces in response to their deployment to Somalia since 2011.⁴

On 25 March, al-Shabaab militants claimed an attack in Mandera town for the first time since May 2023. An explosive device planted in a food kiosk frequented by security forces reportedly led to the deaths of at least four people, including two police officers. The event happened days after national police reservists clashed with militants in Ziwa la Taa village, Lamu county, reportedly leaving two officers dead. Also in Lamu, on 11 April, al-Shabaab attacked a military convoy traveling between Wito and Hindi and, according to the group, killed two officers. Those events, which included the use of IEDs and small-scale attacks, are illustrative of the group’s general modus operandi at the counties near Kenya-Somalia border.

Security Forces’ Efforts to Curb Pastoralist Militia Violence

One year into its operation against pastoralist militias in the North Rift region, the Kenyan government has achieved mixed results. (for more, see ACLED’s Kenya Situation Update March 2023). In the month after the operation began, March 2023, ACLED records an 89% increase in violence in the region compared to February of the same year. In the following months, levels of violence decreased, but they increased again after September 2023 (see graph below). From 16 March to 12 April, ACLED records a 35% decrease in events involving pastoralist militias compared to the previous four weeks. The decrease in numbers is accompanied by authorities’ statements regarding improvements in the situation in, for example, Turkana county.⁵ However, despite the temporary decrease, levels of violence in this county, as well as in Baringo and Samburu counties, increased from September 2023 to March 2024 compared with April to August 2023, following the general trend.

To increase the effectiveness of the operation against pastoralist militias, authorities announced the establishment of an additional operation command center for Isiolo, Meru, Laikipia, and Samburu counties at the beginning of April.⁶ When the operation began in February 2023, its command center was established in Chemolingot, Baringo county.⁷

Despite ongoing operations against pastoralist militias and the large presence of troops in the region, civilians continue to bear the brunt of the pastoralist-related violence in northern Kenya. In 2023 and so far in 2024, more than 60% of events in the region have directly targeted civilians. Pastoralist militia attacks against civilians constitute more than 50% of events recorded by ACLED in the past four weeks. The attacks, which included the targeting of students and a medical college lecturer, illustrate that the violence reaches far beyond the grazing fields.

Mob Violence Targeting Security Forces

In February, President William Ruto announced a plan to crack down on ‘illicit brew’ in the country after 23 people died from consuming liquor in Kirinyaga county.⁸ Since the operations began, however, security operations have been met with resistance on several occasions, with bar owners opposing the limited opening hours designated by the government and mob attacks against on-duty police officers.⁹ On 1 April, an officer was hospitalized after being attacked by a group during a police seizure of illicit brew and drugs in Kiambu county.¹⁰ In another incident, on 14 March, a mob stoned a police officer to death during a law enforcement operation in Siaya county.¹¹

In Africa, Kenya records the highest number of mob violence events since 2018, followed by Nigeria and South Africa. Some of those events have targeted the police directly. On 5 April, residents reportedly killed one police officer at a market in Soko Bora, Elgeyo Marakwet county. The reason behind this killing is unknown. Police officers also appear as collateral targets of citizens’ violent behavior. On 30 March, hundreds of residents stormed a police station in Nyandarua county and took a suspected cattle thief from detention, ultimately stoning him to death. Reportedly, the residents did not trust the police after rumors of police involvement in the theft.¹²

In Kenya, the highest number of mob violence was recorded in 2022 (see graph below). Most of the violence was linked with the 2022 election and was recorded in Nairobi county. In general, however, a large part of mob violence is related to vigilantism. Motivations for such incidents vary, but mob violence triggered by citizens witnessing theft by common criminals represents almost half of the events recorded last year and so far this year. The population’s lack of trust in security forces and the legal system is often presented as one of the main causes of such violence.¹³

Citizens’ feelings toward state forces play an important role in their support for, and collaboration during, intelligence operations and other law enforcement activities in general. Mob attacks against security forces in Kenya point to a need for better public policies to tackle the root causes of violence.