Regional Overview
Latin America and the Caribbean
May 2024
Posted: 10 June 2024
In this Regional Overview
- Colombia: Internal division within the ELN puts government negotiations at risk
- Haiti: Gangs target police facilities ahead of the Kenya-led security deployment
- Mexico: Violence grows deadlier in Zacatecas and Chiapas states
- Panama: José Raúl Mulino is elected president amid some voting irregularities
- Peru: Arrests in Dina Boluarte’s inner circle aggravates corruption allegations against her
- Trinidad and Tobago: Government takes measures to deal with increasing violence in Tobago
Colombia: Internal division within the ELN puts government negotiations at risk
On 7 May, the Nariño-based Comuneros del Sur Front of the National Liberation Army (ELN) announced a split from the Central Command (COCE) after months of internal divisions. The rupture arose from the government’s attempt to engage in separate regional negotiations with the faction, as well as disputes over the control of money from illegal drug trafficking and extortion activities in Nariño.1Alicia Mendez, ‘Informe de inteligencia dice que división dentro del Eln es por el control de la coca en Nariño,’ El Tiempo, 8 May 2024 Peace Commissioner Otty Patiño stated that the Comuneros del Sur Front would be treated as a separate group and that the government would keep negotiating with it, despite opposition from the ELN’s leadership.2El Espectador, ‘Frente Comuneros del Sur será tratado por el Gobierno como un grupo diferente al ELN,’ 8 May 2024 These developments come amid growing fatigue in the negotiations between the COCE and the government due to the COCE’s announcement that it would resume kidnapping civilians as a means of raising funds through ransoms. The group claims that the government has not made any progress on creating a multi-donor fund to finance the peace process.3La Silla Vacia, ‘Gobierno no firmará acuerdo de paz con el ELN si sigue secuestrando,’ 21 May 2024 In fact, the decision follows a surge in ELN kidnappings in April, especially in the Arauca department. Since the ELN signed a six-month bilateral ceasefire with the government in August 2023, then renewed in February 2024, ACLED records a sustained decrease in political violence events involving the armed group. However, the current instability in the negotiations could cause setbacks and increase violence levels in the areas where the ELN is predominant. A clash between the army and ELN members on 27 May near Cucutá, Norte de Santander — which left one guerrilla member dead and two arrested — attests to this risk.4Jenny Márquez, ‘Un muerto y dos capturados dejó enfrentamiento del Ejército con ELN en ruralidad de Cúcuta,’ W Radio, 27 May 2024
Haiti: Gangs target police facilities ahead of the Kenya-led security deployment
Ahead of the imminent deployment of the Kenya-led Multinational Security Support (MSS) Mission, gangs continued violent incursions throughout May, including ongoing targeting of state security infrastructure. Notably, on 10 May, members of the Grand-Ravine gang took over and set fire to a police station in Gressier in the Port-au-Prince metropolitan area, sparking clashes with police forces. Subsequent difficulties in police regaining control of the facility led to calls for the resignation of Frantz Elbé, the head of the country’s police force.5Rezo Nodwes, ‘La PNH annonce la reprise du commissariat de Gressier aux mains des gangs terroristes,’ 12 May 2024 The violent incidents in Gressier have contributed to an overall increased level of violence in the commune, indicative of the expansion of gang operations in the Ouest region. This expansion is likely aimed at controlling National Road 2, which connects the capital with the Sud department.
Gangs had previously attacked at least four other current and former police facilities in the Ouest department, allegedly to prevent their future use by the MSS. Gang targeting of police facilities coincides with a declaration from Jimmy Chérizier, the leader of the G-9 gang coalition and Viv Ansanm alliance, that gangs were preparing to fight off international forces.6Eyder Peralta, ‘Haiti’s notorious gang leader, Barbecue, says his forces are ready for a long fight,’ NPR, 13 May 2024 The deployment of MSS troops was initially expected in late May, with US forces coordinating the construction of infrastructure and the delivery of materials for the mission. However, the arrival of the mission was postponed due to the alleged lack of equipment on the ground.7Ken Opala, ‘Delays and new court challenge threaten Kenya’s police deployment in Haiti,’ 24 May 2024 Following the killing of a missionary couple from the United States and a Haitian man in Croix-des-Bouquets, north of the capital, on 23 May, the US — the security mission’s main donor — has harshened its stance against gangs.8Vant Bèf Info, ‘Haïti : « Les gangs ont le choix entre la prison et le cimetière », affirme l’ambassadeur américain,’ 28 May 2024 Despite delays, the arrival of Kenyan forces could accelerate after members of the Transitional Presidential Council appointed Garry Conille as the new interim prime minister on 28 May.9Dánica Coto, ‘Haiti’s new prime minister vows to seek unity after he is selected by transitional council,’ Associated Press, 29 May 2024 Conille, who served as prime minister under former President Martelly’s administration, will be responsible for forming a government and leading the country until the next elections to be held by February 2026.
Mexico: Violence grows deadlier in Zacatecas and Chiapas states
In Zacatecas, state forces cracked down on the Sinaloa cartel with a series of security operations between 2 and 6 May, in which 26 Sinaloa cartel members were arrested.10El Financiero, ‘Violencia en Zacatecas: ¿Qué tiene que ver el Cártel de Sinaloa con el infierno en el estado?,’ 8 May 2024 During these operations, police officers clashed with members of the Sinaloa cartel in San José de la Barraca, Fresnillo, on 5 May, killing one of the cartel’s local leaders. Following the clashes, the Sinaloa Cartel blocked roads in at least nine nearby municipalities and carried out several attacks that resulted in at least 24 reported fatalities. The response of the cartel to the security operations contributed to a spike in the number of reported fatalities in May, turning it into the deadliest month in 2024. Since 2020, the Sinaloa cartel has stepped up its violent actions in Zacatecas, seeking to push back the advance of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) and control strategic drug trafficking routes and laboratories used for the production of fentanyl.11Anel Tello, ‘Jornada de violencia en Zacatecas: el reflejo de un territorio en constante disputa,’ Milenio, 6 May 2024
Meanwhile, in Chiapas, the conflict between the Sinaloa cartel and the CJNG escalated in the run-up to the elections, as both groups seek to expand their influence, prompting an increase in armed clashes compared to the month prior. Between 10 and 13 May, at least seven clashes were recorded in Chicomuselo and Frontera Comalapa municipalities, including a clash in Nueva Morelia town that left 11 reported fatalities on 13 May. The victims included members of the community who were allegedly killed for refusing to participate in criminal activities.12Baruc Mayen, ‘Por qué el municipio de Chicomuselo es importante para el CJNG y el Cártel de Sinaloa,’ Infobae, 16 May 2024 This violence comes after a similar deadly clash in January in Chicomuselo, where the Sinaloa cartel is fighting for the control of barite mines controlled by the CJNG.13Orsetta Bellani, ‘Explotación ilegal de una mina está detrás de los enfrentamientos en Chicomuselo, Chiapas, denuncian pobladores,’ Animal Político, 24 January 2024
Panama: José Raúl Mulino is elected president amid some voting irregularities
On 5 May, Panama held general elections for more than 800 posts, including the president, deputies, municipal authorities, and deputies to the Central American Parliament. The candidate José Raúl Mulino of the right-wing Achieving Goals (RM) party, originally running as vice president on the ticket of the disqualified former president, Ricardo Martinelli, won the presidency with 34% of the votes. The second-placed candidate, Ricardo Lombana of the Movimiento Otro Camino (MOCA), obtained 25% of the votes, former president Martín Torrijos from 2004 to 2009 of the Partido Popular (PP) received 16%, while the candidate of the ruling Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) only 5%.14EFE, ‘Mulino, el delfín del inhabilitado exmandatario Martinelli, nuevo presidente de Panamá,’ 6 May 2024 Meanwhile, most of the elected Assembly deputies were politicians of independent parties.15Yulika Godoy, ‘Resultados, elecciones en Panamá 2024: La transcendental cifra de independientes que conformarán la Asamblea,’ Telemetro, 9 May 2024
Despite the voting period remaining relatively calm, ACLED records three events where supporters of political parties obstructed access to polling stations. On election day and in its immediate aftermath, demonstrators coordinated at least four protest rallies in Panamá, Darién, Bocas de Toro, and Panamá Oeste provinces, claiming voting irregularities. Although most protests were peaceful, some rioters demanding a recount of the votes beat a member of the PRD in Penonomé, Coclé province. The Electoral Attorney’s Office received 131 complaints of irregularities.16OEA, ‘Informe Preliminar MOE,’ 7 May 2024, p.7 The vote count also saw armed groups engage in two notable events: in Panama City, three armed gang members intimidated supporters of various candidates who were observing the vote count, and in Nombre de Dios, Colón, armed men shot and injured an officer of the National Aeronaval Service after the latter intervened in a brawl that had erupted during the vote count.17Crítica, ‘Pandilleros armados causa pánico en sede electoral del 8-6,’ 8 May 2024
Peru: Arrests in Dina Boluarte’s inner circle aggravates corruption allegations against her
On 10 May, President Dina Boluarte’s brother, Nicanor Boluarte, and her personal lawyer, Mateo Castañeda, were arrested on traffic of influence and organized crime charges. Her brother is accused of appointing government representatives at the local level, from whom he demanded money and efforts to collect signatures for the registration of the Ciudadanos por el Perú (Citizens for Peru) party.18EFE, ‘La Policía detiene al hermano de la presidenta de Perú por supuesto tráfico de influencias,’ 10 May 2024 Meanwhile, President Boluarte’s lawyer was charged with meddling in the dissolution of a special police unit that had supported investigations into Nicanor Boluarte the night before his arrest.19Renzo Gomez, ‘Detenidos el hermano y el abogado de Dina Boluarte por presunto tráfico de influencias,’ El Pais, 10 May 2024 This comes as President Boluarte is under investigation by the Attorney General’s Office for illicit enrichment and not declaring expensive belongings, a requirement for public officials under Peruvian law.20Ronald Avila-Claudio, ‘claves para entender el ‘caso Rolex’ por el que allanaron la casa de la presidenta de Perú, Dina Boluarte,’ BBC News Mundo, 1 April 2024 Boluarte has denied any wrongdoing. Although an impeachment motion against the president did not gather sufficient votes in Congress,21France 24, ‘Perú: rechazan mociones de destitución contra Boluarte; Justicia deja en libertad a hermano de la presidenta,’ 17 May 2024 the scandal has contributed to the ongoing political instability in Peru, which has had five presidents over the past five years, as successive governments have been removed over corruption scandals. The latest shift — which brought Boluarte to power after the deposition of Castillo in late 2022 — sparked a wave of over 1,500 protests between December 2022 and January 2023, during which security forces killed at least 49 protesters.
Trinidad and Tobago: Government takes measures to deal with increasing violence in Tobago
The island of Tobago saw notable gang activity in May, particularly in the southern Plymouth area. This includes a clash between armed groups and at least three targeted attacks, up from one attack event in April. This violence takes place against a backdrop of rising gang violence in Tobago in 2024, which has nearly reached the levels of violence recorded in the whole of 2023. Authorities claimed that this increase is related to gang disputes for the drug trade and the general proliferation of firearms, which affects the whole country.22Elizabeth Gonzales, ‘Tobago cops promise to ‘regain control’ as island records 9th murder,’ Trinidad and Tobago Guardian, 17 May 2024 In response to the increase in violence, the chief secretary of the Tobago House of Assembly, Farley Agustine, announced the establishment of a special police unit in Tobago, changing an established practice of temporarily bringing forces from Trinidad.23Kinneshia George, ‘Chief Secretary: Special police units in Tobago from May 27,’ Newsday, 21 May 2024 Since ACLED started covering the country in 2018, Tobago has consistently recorded some of the lowest numbers of violent events in the country. Increasing levels of violence in the first five months of 2024, even in a traditionally peaceful region, attest to the country’s volatile security situation, which has been deteriorating since 2021.
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